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weird turn spot with 88 on freeroll

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weird turn spot with 88 on freeroll - Thu Oct 24, 2013, 05:22 AM
(#1)
GamblingProp's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 714
Villain was playing tight so far.
My reasoning for the small flop bet was to induce a call with trash.
I am not so sure about my turn bet/fold though.
 
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Thu Oct 24, 2013, 07:52 AM
(#2)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Seems ok. I think bet/folding turn for value/protection is pretty standard because of the 2 flush draws out there.

Your sizing also seems fine.
 
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Thu Oct 24, 2013, 09:13 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,819
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Hi GamblingProp!

With 88, I'm going to make a standard opening raise to 2.5BB+1BB for each limper at this blind level, so I will raise to 500.

I see a HU flop OOP that has a pair of aces. I need to make a standard value bet here for two reasons. First, to get value from my pair and secondly, to see where I'm at in the hand. With one opp in the hand, a standard bet is 1/2 pot, so I will bet 730. I cannot bet less than this as I'm pricing IN all of the opp's draws and overcards, so I get absolutely no information about their hand (if the opp gets a +EV play, they should never fold). My plan for the hand is that if I'm raised, then I'm behind and need to fold. If the opp calls, then I need to re-evaluate on the turn.

The turn puts a second flush draw out there and here is the key decision in the hand. I either need to make a standard bet of 1230 (but since this basically pot-commits me, I have to jam) or check and fold. I cannot bet small and to see why, we need to look at the hand from the opp's perspective.

I see player 6 make a standard raise saying their hand is strong preflop. Then, on the flop, the opp makes a weak bet that prices in the draws (means they have a draw or something marginal). The same thing on the turn (the weak bet says draw or marginal hand). Either way, they've shown weakness two streets in a row. Guess what, it's a perfect opportunity to raise them (I'd just jam instead of clicking it back)... but either way, the opp is pot-committed. Since their hand has screamed weakness twice, especially in a freeroll (but I'd do this in any other tourney too). I'm putting pressure on them with ATC here because even if I floated the flop with say 2 broadway cards... they have no clue whether I'm ahead or not and if they have the hand they are repping (marginal-at-best), they have to fold.

The way the hand played out, instead of making a standard bet on the flop and getting the info that I needed for 730 chips, 1500 was bet between the flop/turn, which means that 770 extra chips were leaked off. If I bet the turn, it HAS to be a shove here, especially in a freeroll, where I can get called by less.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Thu Oct 24, 2013, 12:00 PM
(#4)
GamblingProp's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 714
Thanks guys for the replies.
JWK although I agree with most of your analysis, I think you are giving freeroll players too much hand reading credit.
In my opinion a turn minraise happens only if a villain has the nuts or something close to it.
And also let's say villain is bluffing, or semi-bluffing, why would they just minraise instead of shoving and getting way more fold equity?
I am still not much sure about it.

Last edited by GamblingProp; Thu Oct 24, 2013 at 12:07 PM..
 
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Fri Oct 25, 2013, 01:10 AM
(#5)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,819
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Most opps in freerolls won't have a clue what fold equity is. They also won't make standard bets.. they only see a raise button, so they min bet and min raise everything.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 

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