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implied pot odds again :p

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implied pot odds again :p - Sat Oct 26, 2013, 08:18 AM
(#1)
GayLooser's Avatar
Since: May 2013
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so did i count my implied odds good on turn? was that profitable call? 0.38/(1.21+2.22)= 0.11 -> 11% i need and i have 4 outs = 8% so a little bit loose call by me but profitable? is it too bad when i call with 8% althought i need 11% ?
EDIT: i got numbers bad again... right should be 0.38/(1.21+(2.22 -0.38))=0.12 = 12% ... so with my 4 outs= 8% i didnt make profitable call here , right?

Last edited by GayLooser; Sat Oct 26, 2013 at 01:32 PM..
 
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Sat Oct 26, 2013, 08:50 AM
(#2)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,607
Quote:
Originally Posted by GayLooser View Post
http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/rep...ash=33E1E5756A

so did i count my implied odds good on turn? was that profitable call? 0.38/(1.21+2.22)= 0.11 -> 11% i need and i have 4 outs = 8% so a little bit loose call by me but profitable? is it too bad when i call with 8% althought i need 11% ?
I only count 3 outs to the nuts as the ten diamonds makes a flush.

If you need 11% and call with 8% long turn that's a losing play. What notes did you have that you knew he was going to call

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Sat Oct 26, 2013, 11:30 AM
(#3)
GayLooser's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 62
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was zoom, no info, just typical zoom 2NL players ... most of them will call here with hand like that
 
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Sat Oct 26, 2013, 01:54 PM
(#4)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,359
Hi GL! Your edited calculation looks correct.

The absolute maximum you can win is the amount of money already in the pot on the turn (1.21) plus the effective stack on the river after your turn call. You'll have $1.84 behind if you make the turn call, so potential win = $1.21 + $1.84 = $3.05
The implied pot odds on the turn call translate to equity required of 38/305 = 12%
With a maximum of 4 outs, you have hand equity of less than 10%. Since hand equity is lower than the percentage of the pot you need to contribute, it's not a good call.

FWIW, this spot was one where villain probably would pay you off in full, especially if the river is a non-diamond ten. In a 3-bet pot, villain is pot-committed, and your draw is fairly well disguised. The price he charged on the turn was less than half pot, so you almost had the right price, but in general you shouldn't go chasing such weak draws. 10 to 1 shots don't come in often enough for you to chase them.

Hope this helps!

Cheers,
Arty


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Sun Oct 27, 2013, 11:31 PM
(#5)
GayLooser's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 62
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does implied odds on flop count same? like here i was on flop offered 20c into pot of 43c so
20/(2.42-20+63)=20/285=0,7=7% -> 2 nuts-outs i need to call ... right?
though i know i m never guaranteed to stack off villain, but just theoretically asking
 
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Mon Oct 28, 2013, 02:07 PM
(#6)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,359
You can factor in some implied odds on the flop, yes.
You have to call 20c to win 63c + $2.22.
You've got 4 outs to gutter on the flop. The way I'd look at it is to use odds. The odds against hitting a gutshot on the next card are about 10:1, so the quick math question I'd ask is "Will I win ten times the cost the of calling?". Price of calling is 20c, so you need to win at least $2 total, if you're playing solely to hit the 4-outer. With the money in the pot, plus the stacks behind, winning more than $2 seems reasonable, so it's OK to call on the flop. Generally with gutshots, though, I factor in the chance to bluff when I miss. I might float the flop with a plan to take away the pot on the turn. You won't win many pots by calling down, even with stronger draws than gutshots.


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