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90 man-bubble

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90 man-bubble - Mon Oct 28, 2013, 05:02 PM
(#1)
Espada_Nu.4's Avatar
Since: May 2012
Posts: 148


villain
VPIP 40
PFR 19
F3B 0

i thought i was ahead of his range and i was right.
but, is it a good idea to be risking like this on the bubble?
 
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Mon Oct 28, 2013, 05:22 PM
(#2)
TweedleBeetl's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 1,146
play to win, not to mincash
 
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Mon Oct 28, 2013, 06:18 PM
(#3)
TeHoBeast's Avatar
Since: Sep 2013
Posts: 1
Quote:
Originally Posted by TweedleBeetl View Post
play to win, not to mincash
^^^^This
 
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Mon Oct 28, 2013, 06:20 PM
(#4)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,817
(Super-Moderator)
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Hi Espada!

This is a great example of how to take advantage of the bubble.

The bigstack min-raises (from the numbers provided, their range is a top 19% hand), and it gets to me.

My decision needs to be either to shove or fold here, so let's see what the numbers say....

I have AQs against a top 19% hand and when I put that into pokerstove, I'm a 60-40% favorite to win the hand. Is my pot equity ever going to be over 60% here.. NO.. as I cannot ever put over 50% into the pot. Therefore, shoving here IS a +EV play and one where I can expect to gain chips on average.

Yes, 40% of the time, I will lose and bubble, but by doubling up, I'm a top 3 chip stack at my table and well on my way to having a legitimate shot at a top 3 in the tourney.. where the real money is!

I agree with Tweedle that the goal in these is not to min-cash. It's to make runs at the top 3, then win, as that is where the big $$ is in the tourney and where my ROI will come from. It's better to bubble a few more making plays like this one, but when I win the hand as the favorite, I'm set up for a deep run and much more money.

The way that I try to look at bubble play is to first, take advantage of the smaller stacks and especially the middle stacks that are trying to min-cash (they'll fold unless they have the nuts) and to go at the larger stacks and re-steal from them only when I have hands that are a favorite against their range (which I have here). I'm avoiding the bigstacks with anything marginal.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Mon Oct 28, 2013, 10:18 PM
(#5)
Espada_Nu.4's Avatar
Since: May 2012
Posts: 148
What if he had a high F3B %(80+)?
Whould it be worth to shove with something like 98s, trying to chip up?
 
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Mon Oct 28, 2013, 10:24 PM
(#6)
Espada_Nu.4's Avatar
Since: May 2012
Posts: 148
What if he had a high F3B %(80+)?
Whould it be worth to shove with something like 98s, trying to chip up ?_____
 
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Mon Oct 28, 2013, 11:50 PM
(#7)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,817
(Super-Moderator)
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Bigstacks will be trying to take people out on the bubble, so I'm only going at them when I'm ahead of their range. Even if their overall F3B is higher, it'll be much less due to the bubble.

I'd play 89s against a medium stack that I could damage, but not a bigstack... due to being the one who's tourney life is on the line, I need to be ahead of their range as I'll have no fold equity against them.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 

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