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Questioning the notion of not shoving with >25BBs

Questioning the notion of not shoving with >25BBs - Tue Oct 29, 2013, 06:40 AM
IBNash's Avatar
Since: Oct 2013
Posts: 177
This is a hand from a $0.25 NL Hold'em [90 Players] - Level III (25/50) that lost.

I wanted to shove post flop and did not put him past a J pair. But I bet half pot, and seeing the Turn card, I had a feeling I was beat and checked, bet the River to see his straight.

There is a good chance some players may have called my shove and still made their straight, but I fancy my chances shoving and leaving the debating to my opponent.

I would like some feedback on this hand, I need a new mouse now too.

Tue Oct 29, 2013, 10:14 AM
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
(Head Trainer)
Hi IB,

The reason to not open shove the flop for a massive overbet (3.5x the size of the pot in this case) is because in most cases we value own ourselves by doing so... meaning we make all worse hands (low equity) fold, and we get called by only the high equity parts of his range (stuff that is crushing us like 2 pair and sets). You're suggesting shoving to "protect your hand"... it's not good here, to blow out low equity hands for a reward of 550 while risking 1800 more when our equity rates to be not great. If we had a read that the villain calls off with any pair or any draw, then shoving has more merit, but now we are not in as bad of shape when called since he does so with both low and high equity holdings, not just the high equity ones. It's still not optimal imo, I think we do better bet/folding, extracting value from the stuff we crush and getting away when we are crushed.

As played I think calling the turn is ok given it's only 200 into 1350, and it's reasonable to still have hands in his range we beat at this point like QJ/KJ/AJ, as well as 2 pairs which we have 8 outs to draw out on + 4 outs to ties against.

On the river, we are beating literally nothing in his range except for a counterfeited T9, so I think this is a very clear check/fold. Not sure why you decided to bet now? Other than frustration at a bad board run out? Just give up the river imo.

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Tue Oct 29, 2013, 12:06 PM
IBNash's Avatar
Since: Oct 2013
Posts: 177
Hi Langolier!

I just finished watching your video on Pot Commitment on Arty's suggestion - great stuff!

I understand that shoving my stack there "for a reward of 550 while risking 1800 more when our equity rates to be not great". I didn't have a very good range on the villain, just this sinking feeling seeing that horrible flop that if this guy is calling my cbet, I am likely losing.
And as it panned out in this particular case, he only got ahead on the Turn, since I was feeling sure I was beating him post flop, and thought/assumed he would call my shove 1/3rd of the time -- I felt it may have made him fold there, he wasn't deep stacked nor a maniac. TBH, I think he would fold over 50% of the time, I don't have the loosest image at the table and assume he has as many samples on me as I on him.
Would you have called my shove there often with his hole cards post flop?

I checked on the turn because I kinda knew I was done, and bet the river to see if he was bluffing and kinda pot control instead of checking to see him raise and 'bluff me off'.
So a mix of frustration and being stubborn about not being 'bluffed off holding AA' on a terrible flop when I should've folded.

Thanks for clearing that up.

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