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Folding the nut flush A with 3 suited cards on the flop

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Folding the nut flush A with 3 suited cards on the flop - Tue Oct 29, 2013, 06:02 PM
(#1)
IBNash's Avatar
Since: Oct 2013
Posts: 177
Hi,

This is a hand from $0.25 NL Hold'em [90 Players] - Level IV (50/100) that I folded to a shove from Villain 4 putting him at AJ or having paired a J in the very least.

I know raising UTG with AdTs is not recommended and I did it because the table was quite tight and I wanted to see if everyone folded for the umpteenth time again to try and steal blinds of nothing else. I suppose that is what got me into this quandary in the first place.

I ran the numbers in Equilab, using ranges (44+,A2s+,K8s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T9s,98s,A7o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo) for the Cutoff and (22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T3s+,94s+,85s+,76s,A2o+,K3 o+,Q4o+,J5o+,T6o+,97o+,87o) for the SB.

With a flop of Jd5d2d it tells me AdTs holds 50.45% equity and will win 48.92% of the time. Should I just avoid shoving here all the time?

http://www.boomplayer.com/poker-hand...083_11621600D4
 
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Wed Oct 30, 2013, 02:38 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
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Hi IBNash!

With ATo from UTG, I'm going to open-muck here. While AT is a hand with potential, it's not a strong enough hand to open from UTG. If I had AA or AK or maybe AQs (even AQs is marginal from UTG), then I'd make a standard raise to 3BB (300), but other aces are too weak and need to be mucked preflop.

If I saw the flop (which I would not), I have a flush draw and the opp shoves. To call the shove, I need to put 1546 into a pot that will be 4092 (37.8%), which will be the case if the other guy folds. But, there is an opp behind me. If I reshove and get called, then I'm putting in 3777 into a pot of 10100 (37.4%).

I would not use those ranges for the opps when going to pokerstove.... they're way, way too wide. With no reads provided, I'd be looking at two opps that called a raise preflop (they should have a tighter range due to calling a raise). I'm going to use a 10% range for the first opp that shoves (expecting to see a number of Jx hands or better) and the other opp, IF, they decide to play, should be much tighter (about a top 5% hand). Against these ranges, my hand has 40% equity.

However, if the other opp folds, then I have 9 outs to hit my flush. From the rule of 4 and 2, each out is worth 4% equity to the river and since the opp is all-in, I'm guaranteed to see both cards. This makes my hand worth 36% equity.

This comes down to a read on the second opp. If they would call a shove, then I do have a +EV play to reshove. I will lose 60% of the time, but on average, I will gain chips since my hand equity is higher than my pot equity. If the other opp would fold, then it is a -EV call, as I expect to lose chips on average along with losing almost 2 in 3 times. One is a losing situation, the other is marginal-at-best.

The best decision that I can make in this hand is to muck preflop as ATo is not strong enough to play from UTG.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Wed Oct 30, 2013, 04:28 AM
(#3)
IBNash's Avatar
Since: Oct 2013
Posts: 177
Thanks John, I had to lookup the 2/4 rule. Let's see if I get this, so if 2-3 ppl had shoved before me and I got good pot odds it may be marginally profitable at best?
 
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Wed Oct 30, 2013, 09:30 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
(Super-Moderator)
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To determine whether it's profitable or not is to take the hand equity - pot equity. The difference is the expected value. If the number is + then I expect to gain that % of chips by playing the hand. If the % is negative, then I expect to lose that many chips on average every time I play the hand.

Every situation is different.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 

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