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2nl FR Zoom - JJ

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2nl FR Zoom - JJ - Wed Oct 30, 2013, 04:48 PM
(#1)
pullin1988's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 717
Hi guys,

Please could you analyse my hand below.



The only obvious mistake that I think I can see is not going all-in on the river.

Although a flush got there, I think that he could be potentially bet with worse. when he shoves the rest in on the river, I think that I had to make the call since I only had to call 47c to win a pot $3.46

One thing that I would like you to confirm is the maths.

According to my play, since I had to call 47c into $3.46 this is laying me 7.36:1 which equates to around 12%


Now, this 12% number, is this how often I have to be correct (meaning ahead) for the call to be breakeven to profitable.

Does what I wrote make sense?


cheers,

Pullin1988
 
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Wed Oct 30, 2013, 10:09 PM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
Hi pullin,

While it's hard to see the flush here, hands like 55, A5, 65, 54, and sets that are scared of the 4-straight board aren't as hard to see.

It seems hard to get a river value bet called by worse hands imo, as the board has run out pretty scary for the worse hands that we'd be targeting with that value bet. So I think I would check the river, expecting to be good when it checks down, and folding if he moves all in.

Your river math is correct.


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Thu Oct 31, 2013, 02:37 AM
(#3)
pullin1988's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 717
Cheers Dave.

It looks as though this could be a big leaked that I have.

Now I know making the best decisions is read dependent, but in general, when we get called down, and there are many draws that complete that are possible, should we be checking the river as above. I think I struggle because I think that while those hands complete, I always think that I don't want them to bluff me off my hand, or bet with a worse hand and win the pot? Would it be right to call a small bet on the river? Or even if we give up to the bluff, it's best to look for other spots?

Cheers,

Pullin
 
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Thu Oct 31, 2013, 02:53 AM
(#4)
pullin1988's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 717
It's funny.

Dave is this how we should try to work it on the table, but obviously not with an equity calculator at the tables but by experience and good on the spot decisions.

Please could you see the follow and tell me if this seems correct to an analysis my hands after a session.



When the flop comes up, if I think villain will continue with the following hands: 33-99, 54, 65, A5 then I am currently still a favourite.


turn 2d


Board now reads 4s6d3h2d

villain is now a 75% favourite (according the hand equity calculator) and now I'm a 25% dog. S even if villain possibly has the overpairs the continuing range outweighs (in terms of equity in the hand) my pocket Js.


River brings the 9d

And now I become a 17% against that range, where villain is a 83% favourite. Therefore check folding to a big river bet is best because we will likely be behind a vast majority of the time.


Does all that seem right?

It that the sort of analysis we should aim to do with intuition as we gain experience?


cheers guys appreciate the help.

Pullin1988
 
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Thu Oct 31, 2013, 11:06 AM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
It's good for post game analysis, but obviously you can't realistically do equities like this in game, particularly if you are multi-tabling.

Think about it in game like this:

1) what is his preflop range to be involved with
2) How much of that which we are beating on the flop will call a value bet? What types of hands in that range will call a value bet?
3) As the board runs out scary it improves some of those hands in #2 above, and scares most of the rest... so getting value from worse hands becomes difficult.


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Last edited by TheLangolier; Thu Oct 31, 2013 at 11:08 AM..
 

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