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25nl zoom KK- hit top set on turn, but makes straight and flush possible

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25nl zoom KK- hit top set on turn, but makes straight and flush possible - Wed Oct 30, 2013, 10:43 PM
(#1)
CaRLoS_DZ87's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 184
BronzeStar
Hi PSO,

Vs 4tabler, 28/28/1,4AF 33%F3b only 48 hands

PokerStars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com/

saw flop | saw showdown

Button ($35.39)
Hero (SB) ($58.87)
BB ($12.54)
UTG ($30.65)
MP ($28.74)
CO ($31.05)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K, K
1 fold, MP raises to $0.75, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2.50, 1 fold, MP calls $1.75

Flop: ($5.25) 10, 5, Q (2 players)
Hero bets $3.30, MP calls $3.30

Turn: ($11.85) K (2 players)
Hero bets $7, MP raises to $22.94 (All-In), Hero

I am not sure if we can rule out TT and QQ here?
Don't expect a 4tabler to have a really wide 3bet calling range.. from those positions.

AdAx,AdKh,AdQd,AdQh,AdQs.. maybe he is looser and he has here AJ and more flushes then it's more of an easy fold.

Also what about check calling turn?

Last edited by CaRLoS_DZ87; Wed Oct 30, 2013 at 10:45 PM..
 
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Wed Oct 30, 2013, 11:21 PM
(#2)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
If we were >200bb deep we might consider check/calling for pot control but with ~100bbs bet/calling turn is completely fine.
 
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Thu Oct 31, 2013, 04:48 AM
(#3)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi Carlos,

With the little information we have on villain I think we have to make assumptions on their 3bet calling range.
I think a standard range would be something like: {QQ-TT, AK/AQ, AJs}, a weaker player might call with 99-22, AJo, KQo and I won't be surprised if I see an Axs either.

Here, I'll assume they see the flop with QQ-TT, AK/AQ, AJs, KQs

On this kind of wet board, I don't think they would slow play their sets; I mean they could but I think its unlikely so I would discount QQ/TT from their calling range. So I think whatever calls this flop will be draws, TP hands, or hands with SD value like JJ maybe? When we bet the turn and get raised I'd take out JJ and AQo which leaves us with AK, AdQd (1 combo), AJs, KQs. I prefer to bet than x/c the turn by the way because I think they could still call with a hand like AdQx or AxQd.

I don't think AK would be raising the turn though unless they would have the Ad maybe so that's just 1 combo.
Would they overplay their TP or 2pair KQ on such a board though? I don't know. But if we only keep AdQd and AJ we have 22% equity. We need to call 15.94$ to win 41.79$ so we need to be good 28% of the time to make the call. So we need them to atleast take that line with 1 combo of AK or KQs to make our call profitable.

I think AdJx, AdQd makes the most sense with their line and board texture.
 
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Thu Oct 31, 2013, 07:34 AM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hey all,

This all comes down to ranging of course, but personally I wouldn't discount all set combos, some players are just slowplay happy. I would also include KxQd, as that's well in his opening range and he's only folded to a 3B 1/3 or 2/6 times so far.

He's probably shoving any KQ actually on this turn, so that's 3 combos we're crushing. Include those and half of the set combos and we have the equity to call.

Bottom line is, it's a 3b pot 115bb's deep, that is further inflated by flop and turn bets, and we are at the absolute top of our range with a hand that is crushing some of villain's holdings and can never be drawing dead even in our worst case scenario... I don't like folding in a spot like this.


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Thu Oct 31, 2013, 02:02 PM
(#5)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
I will simply echo Dave's sentiments here.

If we fold when villain has an underset or top two pair or slowplayed AA it is such an enormous disaster. We have a top range hand with outs versus anything that has other things in his value range drawing dead.

We are also getting a decent price given how much money has been put into the pot. We also can't check this turn, we must bet and bet/call. Checking leads to so many disasters far worse than this one!

Final point would be that we should be playing with a large enough bankroll to not have to agonize about running into AJ here or a flush and not pairing the board. Its a buy-in, we didn't get there, and villain did.

In short, even if there is an argument for bet/folding TT here, that doesn't mean there is one for bet/folding KK.
 
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Thu Oct 31, 2013, 02:58 PM
(#6)
CaRLoS_DZ87's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 184
BronzeStar
Thanks all, unfortunately I fold, but i would know better next time on a similar spot.
 
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Fri Nov 08, 2013, 05:42 PM
(#7)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaRLoS_DZ87 View Post
Vs 4tabler, 28/28/1,4AF 33%F3b only 48 hands

Hey everybody

Another tricky hand to get me thinking about ranging, price to call, outs to a better hand, etc, etc

Carlos, I had a couple of slightly similar/different hands that provide kind of an interesting to contrast - like with different hand strengths, different villains?


Hand 1 - kind of a scary re-raise and shove by the villain! Wasn't sure if the villain was doing this with a worse flush or a better one ...




Oh

Turns out his AF was 10.0! Which I didn't notice in the moment - also his AFq on the turn and river were in the high 70's, 80's. Thought that was an interesting contrast to Carlos' villain with the AF of 1.4?





Hand 2 - the re-raise was so large, it kind of seemed suspicious. Then again the re-raise was so large ... such a big price to continue oop?

Villain's HUD stats





Not sure about this fold ... seemed like my hand wasn't as strong as Carlos', and also there was a lot less in the pot? Although I guess calling and seeing what the villain did on the turn was also a possibility?


Not easy ... anyways, hope everyone's having a nice day/evening

Last edited by TrustySam; Fri Nov 08, 2013 at 05:47 PM..
 
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Fri Nov 08, 2013, 07:37 PM
(#8)
CaRLoS_DZ87's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 184
BronzeStar
Hand 1, you have a super strong hand considering that it is sb vs bb and he seems really aggressive, so I would never fold there, wp. Also consider that small suited Axs, are favorite hands for a lot of players to 3bet bluff preflop, AQs AKs would have 3bet you for value and you block AJs,ATs,KJs,KTs,QJs.

Hand 2, What kind of players he is? he 3bet 25%? don't really know in what sample, must be small. His big size seems a hand that needs protection. Don't think he would bet this big with a made flush, probably a set(I think must players would 3bet QQ unless he is a rec), but then also could be JQ and AQ no club. Don't think I would fold flop.
 
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Sat Nov 09, 2013, 07:32 AM
(#9)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaRLoS_DZ87 View Post
Hand 1, you have a super strong hand considering that it is sb vs bb and he seems really aggressive, so I would never fold there, wp. Also consider that small suited Axs, are favorite hands for a lot of players to 3bet bluff preflop, AQs AKs would have 3bet you for value and you block AJs,ATs,KJs,KTs,QJs.

Hand 2, What kind of players he is? he 3bet 25%? don't really know in what sample, must be small. His big size seems a hand that needs protection. Don't think he would bet this big with a made flush, probably a set(I think must players would 3bet QQ unless he is a rec), but then also could be JQ and AQ no club. Don't think I would fold flop.


Hand 1 - that's an awesome point about the hands that can be ruled out because the villain would have 3-bet them pre-flop, and then there were so many that JTs blocked ... totally didn't think of that



Hand 2 - ya, the # hands on my HUD is the red 40 next to the notes ... it was 3/12 hands, but so far it had all been in the blinds, and he'd never re-raised post-flop before. Had the exact same sense with the big re-raise sizing, about it seeming more weak than strong - and then thought first of a set, but then ruled out the QQ ... what that left, I wasn't totally sure Was thinking 2pr for sure, and possibly JJ ... wasn't sure about AQ with or without club, and then also wasn't sure if like there might have been a deep-stack element, with 7c8c+ in their range that they were worried would get outdrawn and/or they were trying to get the money into the middle with?

Also, you know what ... was just reviewing some hands this past week, and there were a few where a card on future streets improved my hand, but improved the villain's more - like my outs weren't clean, or there was like a potential reverse-implied odds situation, or whatever? That's just something I've started to factor into flop decisions, so ... not sure how much that should factor in, if QJ is in the villain's range. But all that being said, the fold did feel like it might be premature ... yeah, maybe it was worth calling to see what the villain did on the turn ... next time I guess

Last edited by TrustySam; Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 08:18 AM..
 

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