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10NL 6-Max Zoom: btm set on wet board

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10NL 6-Max Zoom: btm set on wet board - Mon Nov 04, 2013, 10:24 AM
(#1)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
This hand comes from 10NL 6max Zoom. The villain is a known Goldstar running plain vanilia 16/14/3.5 and 91% c-bet.

I felt a bit lost postflop. I wasn't sure if calling to keep his range wide and for pot control was best, or if raising was better to keep him from drawing to a better hand.

I wasn't convinced I had the best hand until he folded, but felt that there were a ton of hands that would call my turn bet that I was beating. Yet, if he raises me on the turn I have a problem. There are a lot of cards that can come on later streets that ruin my hand.

Any thoughts?



Thanks!

Roland GTX
 
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Mon Nov 04, 2013, 11:24 AM
(#2)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Against some opponents we can 3b TT profitably but because this guy is such a nit I like flatting pre.

As far as post flop, our default plan should be to get the money in by the river.

That being said, raising his cbet is pretty mandatory on such a wet board with the intention of barreling turn shoving most rivers.

It's also worth mentioning that our hand is very strong OTF, but can become relatively weak on certain board runouts. This also implies that raising and getting more money in the pot when our hand is relatively strongest.

As played, if he calls the turn he'll have $7.40 left when the pot is ~$7.20.

Because of this i'd prefer either a bigger raise OTF or a bigger bet OTT to set up stacks for a nicer river shove.

Last edited by birdayy; Mon Nov 04, 2013 at 11:29 AM..
 
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Mon Nov 04, 2013, 12:16 PM
(#3)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi Greg,

When villain bets this kind of flop I think his hands will mainly constitute broadway hands. So if we look at a range of: AA-JJ, AK-AT we have 67% equity. So yes we should be definitely raising this wet flop with our set as some cards on later streets could destroy us as birdayy mentions. I would raise to atleast 1.5$, I really want to build the pot now. There are ~32% of his hands that can beat us (QQ/JJ, AK) but we can get value from their two pair and draws.
 
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Mon Nov 04, 2013, 12:19 PM
(#4)
maDe91's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 47
Like the flat preflop, although it kinda turn your range face-up. I think we can get a lot of extra value by just calling instead of 3betting which essentially will fold out almost all worse hands and you end up in a big pot against a guy who's range has u crushed. obviously getting 4bet would also put you in a tricky spot.

As for postflop I think the raise is pretty much a given on this board. I doubt villain would flat AK pre and he'd probably 3bet QQ and maybe JJ preflop as well. So it's most likely that he's on some kind of draw and getting more money in right now should be the main goal on the flop. As long as no real scare cards hit I'd just keep betting for value against draws and QJ/QT/JT type hands.

Also as long as no draws hit I'd pretty much never fold to a turn raise. His range should be so draw and 2pair heavy that I'd happily get the money in.

Last edited by maDe91; Mon Nov 04, 2013 at 12:23 PM..
 
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Mon Nov 04, 2013, 01:27 PM
(#5)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
Thanks guys!

PF I called his raise, so he had no opportunity to 4b. Im not 3betting this guy with 1010. Ill just get value owned.

I think my biggest concern was losing the hand more than getting value out of it, especially if my turn bet gets called. Basically any heart or diamond on the river is going to be a problem for me, as well as any A, any K, any 9 and maybe even an 8. If the board pairs with a J or Q, I might be facing a better house. That is over half the deck.

This board hits his range quite hard, especially considering he calls my flop raise. He is likely drawing perhaps with a pair as well. So, if he raises on the turn, yeah, I can presumably profitably move all in or call an all in. However, if he flats the turn, the river is going to be a mess as Ill be forced to make a hero call for my stack half the time. Perhaps this situation is unavoidable.

Either way, I feel like there is a real risk of overvaluing our hand on this board.

Thanks!

Greg
 

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