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missed value??

missed value?? - Mon Nov 04, 2013, 08:47 PM
hendo30's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 101
Tue Nov 05, 2013, 04:05 AM
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
Hi again hendo30!

Preflop looks great, nice bet sizing

The flop is very wet. C-betting is good here, but you only bet 50% of the pot. On wet boards like this you should bet more, at least 70%. This flop fits well with the villain's range. Therefore, it is more likely that he will call your larger bet. Also, betting more protects your hand. We want to give the villain poor odds to continue.

The same is true on the turn. You bet 16c into a pot of 40c. This is too small. You only have top pair on a dangerous board. You want to bet more both for protection and for value. Don't let him chase a drawing hand too cheaply. Also note, it is important to bet now on the turn for value. If he is chasing a flush or holding QQ, AK, AJ or A10, he will pay you off now while he still has hopes of improving on the river. Once the river card comes he will know if he improved or not. All the times he misses, he won't put more money in the pot.

The river is a brick and will not have helped either of you. Checking as you did looks good. It is not clear if you have the best hand. There are straights and several two pair hands in his range. The flush draws fill fold if you bet and A10 and AJ will usually fold as well. So the only hand you are beating that may to call is AK. If you bet and get raised, you will have a problem. Even though you have AA, it is just top pair. We can't always expect to get three streets of value for single pair hands.

The potentially missed value in this hand stems from your betsizing on the flop and turn. You could probably have squeezed more out of the villain on those streets.

GL and have fun at the tables!

Roland GTX
Tue Nov 05, 2013, 04:06 AM
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Your bet sizing is a bit small on all streets.

I'd prefer 60%+ of the pot cbets and fold if raised on any street.

As played I think we can bet/fold the river profitably vs his range.

@Greg I think we have the best hand OTR so we should bet. All straights and sets would have already raised on the flop or turn. The only combos that us are then 2 pairs which he played passively. Given the river changes nothing we should still extract thin value.

Last edited by birdayy; Tue Nov 05, 2013 at 04:09 AM..
Tue Nov 05, 2013, 10:33 AM
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
I like the actions on all streets - but the bet sizing is too small - you're giving villain a great price to catch his potential draws.

I disagree with birdayy. There are a lot of two-pair possibilities for villain that he doesn't want to get too frisky with but would be happy to see a showdown with so just checking back the river is the best play IMO.

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