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this is a fold right?

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this is a fold right? - Thu Nov 07, 2013, 09:05 AM
(#1)
hendo30's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 101
 
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Thu Nov 07, 2013, 09:42 AM
(#2)
Mikey_Luggs's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 138
For me it's player dependent at 2NL. If they are good tags/lags or nits then I would probably fold here. You have raised UTG then when donked into on the flop have come over the top with a player still to act on a wet flop. I don't think the better players are going see this as a chance to make a play. Even with hands like TT or JJ. If the players however are fish then I'm all in all day long.
I have a feeling most people are going tell you that they are all in all day long here
 
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Thu Nov 07, 2013, 11:14 AM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,505
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Hi hendo,

I'm all in all day long here.

No, seriously, I am not folding. V2 is usually going to have some kind of draw in this spot with the flop line he's taken, and V4 a worse 1 pair hand or draw himself. While there's a possibility that V4 has flopped a set as well, because he didn't 4-bet preflop I would discount some combos of AA and KK, and because your flop raise of V2's donk bet is only half the pot, he could see this as just testing the waters and feel like his 77-JJ holdings are good now, deciding to commit with them. So I don't think we should fold.


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Thu Nov 07, 2013, 12:36 PM
(#4)
hendo30's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 101
just wanna point out this was zoom i ctrl+fold to see action...... that change anything?
 
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Thu Nov 07, 2013, 03:46 PM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hendo30 View Post
just wanna point out this was zoom i ctrl+fold to see action...... that change anything?
???

What do you suspect it might change?


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Thu Nov 07, 2013, 08:48 PM
(#6)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Unless you got a time travel device, no.
 
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Fri Nov 08, 2013, 04:17 AM
(#7)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
I paused before I saw the outcome of the hand.

I would call in this spot. Bearing in mind he min-raised under the gun, I think you can rule out 74 or any two pair. Would he min raise with a small pocket pair? He would probably limp with 66 or below, I suppose he might min raise though.

I think it's far more likely that he has some sort of overpair or something like A6 or A4 or Ax of clubs, maybe even KcQc or KcJc. QQ is crushing all this range so I would call here.
 
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Fri Nov 08, 2013, 05:06 AM
(#8)
hendo30's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 101
i kinda assume as its zoom people have a tighter range.......
 
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Fri Nov 08, 2013, 05:19 AM
(#9)
hendo30's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 101
can you really rule AA KK out with V4 seen that play UTG min raises before and V2 after my 3B and call its not a bad price to call with a small pocket pair.....
on the flop is it really that clear cut to call with two allins in front of me with just an over pair? what are they putting me on? iv 3B pre and on the flop so that must make me look strong....

or there is the option i had a really bad day and was looking for reasons not to get beat again lol
 
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Fri Nov 08, 2013, 10:21 AM
(#10)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,505
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by hendo30 View Post
can you really rule AA KK out with V4
Not sure if this post was directed at me or just in general, but I'll try to clarify. I didn't say to rule them out completely, I would discount some of the combos of these hands since they would 4-bet preflop some (probably most) of the time. It's very unrealistic to think V4 never re-raises these hands preflop. It's also not fair to say V4 must always reraise them and just discount them altogether. There are 6 card combos that make up each pocket pair, I would generally discount at least 2/3rds of them as having been reraised, so out of 12 combos of AA/KK, putting his range into an equity calculator I would include 4 of these. I think that's a bit generous tbh, it may be closer to 2, but 4 isn't unreasonable and when we're going to run equity it's good to err on the side of caution.

Quote:
and V2 after my 3B and call its not a bad price to call with a small pocket pair.....
I think small pairs are certainly in V2's preflop range, but his flop lead out largely discounts sets as this is not how the vast majority of players play a set in this spot. He is likely on a weaker 1 pair hand or a draw, with his bet sizing indicating draw.

Quote:
on the flop is it really that clear cut to call with two allins in front of me with just an over pair? what are they putting me on? iv 3B pre and on the flop so that must make me look strong....
Yes, it's pretty clear cut tbh. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying I expect us to be ahead 100% of the time here (I did say V4 could show us a set remember). We don't need to be ahead 100% of the time to have a profitable call though. Your 3B preflop looks strong but your flop raise (not 3b) doesn't really look strong. V2 donks for a tiny bet, and you raise to a size that is only half the pot. If checked to you and you c-bet half the pot, some players might think that looks weak (which is debatable imo), like AK just following through with a c-bet. When you're sizing a raise to this amount it looks even weaker. So while V4 can have sets, this sizing may be enough to convince him that his 77-JJ hands are winning and shove it in with those as well.

Board: 6c 5c 3s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.384% 60.15% 01.24% 29177 600.50 { QdQh }
Hand 1: 38.616% 37.38% 01.24% 18132 600.50 { AcAd, AhAs, KcKd, KcKs, JJ-33 }

So we are a solid equity favorite over V4, and also over V2's probable draw/1 pair hand.


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Last edited by TheLangolier; Fri Nov 08, 2013 at 10:23 AM..
 
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Fri Nov 08, 2013, 11:25 AM
(#11)
hendo30's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 101
the AA KK comment wasn't directed at anyone. not questioning what anyone is saying just putting out my thought process.... as soon as i played the hand had a feeling might have been a bad fold that's why i put it up here.....
 
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Fri Nov 08, 2013, 11:43 AM
(#12)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,505
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Cool, it's all good... hope my response is making sense.


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