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Hot 55c final table exit hand.

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Hot 55c final table exit hand. - Thu Nov 07, 2013, 11:51 AM
(#1)
chillipops's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 1,090
Hi guys,



I'd like to ask what you think about this hand as it has been on my mind most of the day and I am still not sure if I could have folded it here, I had just managed to get to the final table of the hot 55c, (one of my favorite tourneys for sure atm.) I was short stacked but I think I had to shove?
 
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Thu Nov 07, 2013, 01:23 PM
(#2)
TweedleBeetl's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 1,146
shove is good here, even with 2 villains
if you fold, you wont last long and there is no-one with a smaller stack than you
if you win this you are in a good position to get a good finish.
 
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Thu Nov 07, 2013, 03:04 PM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,788
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Hi chillipops!

With AJs in the BB, I get just over a min-raise, then a call. When it gets back to me with only 2BB in front of me, I absolutely like the play to shove here as a squeeze. With only 3BB, I don't really have any fold equity, but I need to be acquiring chips to go for a top 3 run.

IMO, I think the only wrong play here is NOT to shove. I made a very similar play myself a couple months ago in the HPT Main Event that I played. I had a few more chips and didn't have the extra caller (which helps your pot odds compared to me) and I snap-shoved it.. right into AQs.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Thu Nov 07, 2013, 05:27 PM
(#4)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by chillipops View Post
Hi guys,



I'd like to ask what you think about this hand as it has been on my mind most of the day and I am still not sure if I could have folded it here, I had just managed to get to the final table of the hot 55c, (one of my favorite tourneys for sure atm.) I was short stacked but I think I had to shove?

Absolutely shoving every time here chillipops.

Every time.

If we pass on this spot...it's a turbo,so the blinds and antes are eating our stack faster...we're already very short to begin with,we'll actually be FORCED to take an all-in on our next BB if we haven't CHOSEN to shove by then...so a fold here is basically us waving a white flag of surrender and hoping that there are a couple of bust outs before our next BB and we can ladder climb a spot or 2.

And we're passing on a very good chance to get ourselves back into this game,with a playable stack.

Look at the money here...656,250 chips at the outset of the hand and a raise and a call when it comes to our BB...when we shove we know that we're either getting 2 callers or going to see Villain 1 come over top and push Villain 2 out,which leaves us HU w/Villain 1 and an additional 540K of dead money in the pot as donated by Villain 2...so,either we're in a 3-way pot for 2,646,941 chips and our pot equity if 18.78%...or we're HU for 2,440,044 and our pot equity is 20.36%.

So what's our hand equity likely to be?

Well,absent reads/stats,none of which our given here,we do know that it's a turbo,so ranges are likely to be a fair bit wider...but for the sake of argument let's assign more standard ranges to the 2 villains...say Villain 1 is opening at 15% (77+,A7s+,K9s+,Q10s+,J10s,ATo+,KTo+,QJo) and Villain 2 is at 10% (77+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo). At these ranges our AJs plays at roughly 31.7%---a CLEAR advantage over the 18.78% pot equity we have for the 3-way pot size,so very much a +EV spot for us. We can even dial it back to 10% for Villain 1 and 5% for Villain 2 (88+,AJs+,KQs,AKo) and get around 25.7% hand equity,so again it's clearly +EV.

If Villain 1 were to have shoved his stack in and induced a fold from Villain 2...well we can dispense with scrolling through a bunch of ranges and just assign them 1% (QQ+,that's it) and see that our AdJd will win about 26.4% of the time,so even against that tight a range with 20.36% pot equity we would be in a +EV spot.

Bottom line chillipops...given the money that's in the pot already when this hand gets to our BB we could and SHOULD be getting it in here with a range of hands that's much wider than AJs...so the only way this hand should ever be sticking in your craw would have been if you had folded.

Well played,better luck the next time and big congrats on the FT,that's a nice payout for .55 and a great result in such a large field.
 
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Thu Nov 07, 2013, 05:49 PM
(#5)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
Hi chillipops!

With only 3BB, I don't really have any fold equity, but I need to be acquiring chips to go for a top 3 run.



John (JWK24)
Look again JW,he's even shorter than that. If chillipops folds here then he's left with 496,897 chips and the BB is already 250K...plus it's a turbo and the next blind level is 150K/300K w/37.5K antes...so a fold here guarantees us that we'll be forced to be all-in on our next BB if we haven't chosen to shove by then.

Dire straits indeed. As said in my post above...if it's me in this spot,with all that dead money in the middle when it comes to my BB here...I'm slamming my chips in with a waaaaaay wider range than AJs...probably ANY pair,ANY Axs,ATo+,K8s+,QTs+,JTs,KJo+,QJo,JTo and probably all suited connectors down to as low as 65s,maybe even 54s. And more than a fair share of non-suited connectors as well,probably from 76o+. Just too much pot equity to pass with most any playable hand in a 3-way scenario here,IMO.

Yeah,we defo have ZERO fold equity here,so we're looking for a hand that we have a reasonable chance with at showdown. I just started punching numbers in for a some hands against a 10% and 5% range respectively for the 2 villains here and ALL pairs are +EV for this pot equity and ALL suited connectors as well...all the way down to and including 32s (it's razor-thin close at around 20.7% vs.18.78% pot equity,but is IS favorable...).

AJs is really,really a snap shove here at the end of the day.
 

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