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2nl Zoom flop oesd

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2nl Zoom flop oesd - Fri Nov 08, 2013, 02:41 AM
(#1)
Praydk's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 504

villain 21/17 raise flop 33% (335)
Because he is raising the flop so often I thought I had some fold eq, and just to call I didn't have the right odds.
Any chance I get value owned here? would it still be better to call?
 
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Fri Nov 08, 2013, 05:03 AM
(#2)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
I wouldn't really 3bet resteal out of the small blind. I think T8s is a pretty good hand to see a cheap flop with the potential to stack off the villain. Just flatting also gives BB more incentive to join in.

As it is BB flat cold-calls anyway. His stats seem the looser end of TAG, I reckon his range is something like 88-QQ, AK, maybe AQ.

You lead out, which is fair enough. When you get raise by V3, I think you can eliminate AK or AQ from his range so he likely has some pocket pair. I think he would fastplay a set due to the board texture and the fact that you 3-bet PF and led the turn. He might also raise with TT+ as his raise flop % is high.

Now what to do OOP. You have to call $0.55 more into a pot of $1.34. Giving you about 2.43 - 1 pot odds. Putting your hand vs his range of QQ-77, you have a surprisingly high 32.58% equity. However if you miss the turn, he will have around a pot-sized bet which he may stick all in on the turn. Then again he might well shove the turn with any turn card.

By going all in, you aren't really folding out much of his range, maybe 88 folds but that is about it. Therefore you are actually giving yourself odds of $2.42 (his stack - $0.20) vs $3.21 (amount you can win) or 1.33-1, which are bad odds compared to your actual equity of 2.43-1 and I don't think you are gaining that much with fold equity.

I would probably just call the flop and re-evaluate on the turn.

I'd be grateful if some of the better players could tell me if my analysis is correct or where I am making an error.
 
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Fri Nov 08, 2013, 05:28 AM
(#3)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi Praydk,

I think this one's a bit tricky because of the positions and preflop action. With the right information OTB and BB, I like the 3bet preflop.
The flop is pretty much a runout we are happy to commit more chips on. OESD + BD FD. Great Stuff!
I'm probably going to bet bigger here though, say 0.25$. Anyways, the BB raises with one player left to act. That's a strong line! Wave goodbye to fold equity imo

I can't be too sure of what hands would cold call a 3bet in the BB but if I were to guess: JJ-77, AQ?
Because there's one player left to act, I might want to discount AQ from their raise but then again we don't know what this guy is planning when we have already seen them raise flops 33% of the time.
I'm really eager to say we should jam, well in different a scenario this should be an easy jam, but given the actions we saw I'm not sure if we have 40% equity against their flop raise to make it +EV. But if I were to make a mistake, I think I would prefer making it by shoving all in instead of calling flop and x/f turn when we miss.
 
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Fri Nov 08, 2013, 10:35 AM
(#4)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
3b is good. Bet bigger OTF and i'd actually fold if raised.

If stacks were deeper we could consider something else but honestly I don't think there's enough money behind to warrant shoving an open ender.

Shoving draws is much stronger when you have fold equity.

Shoving is much better than calling FWIW.

Last edited by birdayy; Fri Nov 08, 2013 at 10:38 AM..
 

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