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2nl Zoom set vs river shove

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2nl Zoom set vs river shove - Fri Nov 08, 2013, 02:48 AM
(#1)
Praydk's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 504

I limped behind because there was allready 2 limpers and I didn't want to isolate anyone, maybe get some more limpers.
Villain 29/16; AF R 1; wtsd 44
nothing makes more sense than a flush, he is passive so he isn't really bluffing the missed diamond or straight draw, 8x/9x/6x will just call or fold, a K won't do this because of the flush, two pair with a king may not be doing this for the same reason. What am I missing? should have I called?
 
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Fri Nov 08, 2013, 04:37 AM
(#2)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
PF - I like the limp behind - 33 is the perfect sort of hand to see a cheap flop with many players.

Flop - I agree with your bet and size.

Turn - I'd probably bet slightly bigger to make it more difficult for Villain to continue with his draw.

River - I would call here. What hand is he just calling down on the flop and turn that Kc has made into a monster? My most likely guess is either K8 or perhaps K6, or 8x with two clubs. However if he really did make a flush, I would expect him to lead out on the river as can't guarantee that you would bet this river for him. Therefore I think two pair is more likely and I would make the call.

It would be interesting to see what Villain's River Aggression stats on the river are. Some players bet close to 100% of river cards - these are players who like to make big bets and big bluffs to try and take down big pots - this is something I always check when facing a monster river bet.
 
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Fri Nov 08, 2013, 05:39 AM
(#3)
Prodigy237's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 336
BronzeStar
Hey Praydk,

Personally, I don't like limping with pps, so would be tempted to raise p/f to 0.10c IP as our hand doesn't play well m/w [... unless we hit our set]. As played, post-flop is pretty standard until we get to the river... Villain has x/c 2 streets & both SD & BDFD get there, so think optimal play here is to simply 'x' behind.

When Villain x/shoves OTR... I'm not sure how often we're still ahead so think this is an easy b/fold.

Tony [Prodigy237]

Last edited by Prodigy237; Fri Nov 08, 2013 at 05:50 AM.. Reason: Added
 
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Fri Nov 08, 2013, 10:32 AM
(#4)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Pretty gross spot.

Don't think it's an easy b/fold at all. I think this is really close if villain overvalues two pairs etc.

All sets beat us as well as BD flushes. Without reads i'd probably fold... but it's still really close.
 
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Fri Nov 08, 2013, 01:21 PM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi Pray,

It really comes down to how often we think this guy will overvalue worse hands, or make a weird bluff or random nonsense move with a hand like KdTd, vs how often he gets to the river with back door clubs. Given that he's a fish, and is not super passive at 29/16 plus doesn't like to fold, I'd probably sigh/call here, but I agree with birdayy that it's likely close, which if true means it doesn't matter much for our long term expectation if we fold or call. If I knew somehow that there was no difference in expectation between calling and folding, they were both equal in EV, then I would call personally as the information we get on what he shows here may have some tangible future value.


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Fri Nov 08, 2013, 03:17 PM
(#6)
Praydk's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 504
Agression Factor on River = 1
 
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Fri Nov 08, 2013, 03:37 PM
(#7)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Praydk View Post
Agression Factor on River = 1
I would disregard this unless you have a very large sample size (1K+ hands). Chances are your river samples are not large enough here, and with his loose tendencies earlier in hands he is getting to the river much more frequently than normal with weak holdings, which leads to more calling, which lowers River AF. But doesn't really speak to how he might play with 2 pair+, or how often he might lose his mind with a nonsense play.


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