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$1 - 180man SNG SB with AK calling UTG shove

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$1 - 180man SNG SB with AK calling UTG shove - Sat Nov 09, 2013, 03:47 AM
(#1)
IBNash's Avatar
Since: Oct 2013
Posts: 177
The villain (75/13/1) was UTG and shoved his 232BB stack and it folded to me in the SB holding AKo.
I had seen the villain lose a previous hand holding a pocket pair and put him at Ax/pocket pair and felt he was shoving a bit tilted.




I called his shove, and of course he won. Looking this up in Equilab later and I see that AKo is a favorite to lose at 48ish% vs his 88s.

Even if the villain is all over the place, will this call be -EV long run? Should I only call with AA here?
 
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Sun Nov 10, 2013, 09:36 AM
(#2)
ChewMe1's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 574
Hi IBNash

Based on villains numbers and granted that he will be tilt shoving a lot of the time 'd be calling with our hand but I wouldn't be thrilled about it because regardless of what villain has this is a high variance risk. If we both had the normal 1500 starting chips then it would be a no brainer but because we both have more than double the average stack, this spot becomes pretty awkward.

Ultimately folding would be a mistake imo, the 180 mans are constantly running so even if we do lose the hand it's not like we can't load up another one right away.

+ev call in the long run and given villains numbers I'd happily call with JJ+.

Cheers, Chris.
 
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Sun Nov 10, 2013, 07:41 PM
(#3)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
In MTTs I'm always very nitty in these situations.

Lets assume it's a +EV decision chip-wise to call. How much does this increase our expected winnings in the tournament? I would say probably not much at all. Whilst having a bigger stack early certainly helps because you would likely have to make fewer decisions for your tournament life, it is only going to delay this process until slightly later than for most other players.

Is the call +EV? Probably, but it is surprising how often Villains actually turn over AA or KK in these situations. Then again they often turn over with AT+ or just some random junk occasionally.
 
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Mon Nov 11, 2013, 02:19 AM
(#4)
IBNash's Avatar
Since: Oct 2013
Posts: 177
Thanks for clearing that up Chris
 

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