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NL25 FR, AKo, nut flush draw decision on the flop

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NL25 FR, AKo, flush draw decision on the flop - Sun Nov 10, 2013, 09:04 PM
(#1)
fmbraga's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 8
ChromeStar
Hi,

I just got check-raised on flop with a King-high flush draw. Was I wrong in calling here ?

Best regards,


Last edited by fmbraga; Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 09:11 PM..
 
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Mon Nov 11, 2013, 04:03 AM
(#2)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
The problem is that we may be drawing dead if he has the A high flush, although this is unlikely.

As played, i'd prefer to call the flop, and fold to a turn barrel. Don't think there is enough implied odds for us, as when the 4 flush hits a lot of smaller flushes won't pay us off.
 
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Mon Nov 11, 2013, 05:58 AM
(#3)
Shichi-77's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 607
PLs, correct me if I'm wrong,
Pot odds is 2.285 (5.14+4)/4.
10 outs( if we make assumption that he wouldn't check raise nut flush OTF , and put him on sets or small flushes, because board is too wet and he is aggressive enough, and if he is bluffing we don't have even bluff catcher) draw odds 3.7, so we are in the money , aren't we? or there is some mistake in the calculation ?
but the thing is our outs , he might play there nut flush draw that way and in that case we have just 3 outs.

Last edited by Shichi-77; Mon Nov 11, 2013 at 06:04 AM..
 
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Mon Nov 11, 2013, 12:01 PM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
Hi fmbraga,

I agree with birdayy, I would call the flop c/r and fold to a big turn barrel unimproved. On the flop it's reasonable as we have a lot of cards to improve and we have position, but on the turn we're not getting a great price to call on the draw with 1 card to come considering that:

1) His bet sizing is big, which shows a lot of strength and cuts down our odds to draw
2) We have no clean outs except for the Ad. All other outs might make us a 2nd best hand.
3) When we do improve on the river, and make the best hand, many of those improvement cards make the board sufficiently scary so we can't get paid off. The diamonds in particular... if we hit a small diamond, we will have to pay him off when he's got the Ad, but he won't have to pay us off when he doesn't. So there's some reverse implied odds on our draw here as well.


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Mon Nov 11, 2013, 12:07 PM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shichi-77 View Post
PLs, correct me if I'm wrong,
Pot odds is 2.285 (5.14+4)/4.
10 outs( if we make assumption that he wouldn't check raise nut flush OTF , and put him on sets or small flushes, because board is too wet and he is aggressive enough, and if he is bluffing we don't have even bluff catcher) draw odds 3.7, so we are in the money , aren't we? or there is some mistake in the calculation ?
but the thing is our outs , he might play there nut flush draw that way and in that case we have just 3 outs.
Pot odds are correct, ~2.3-1. We do not have better odds than this to improve to the best hand, so it is not a profitable draw without implied odds (being able to win additional money on the river when we get there). In this case we don't have good implied odds really, as many cards that improve us to a winner make the board too scary to get paid off well, and we have some reverse implied odds working against us (when a small diamond comes and he's got the Ad, or when we spike a ten and he's got a flush for example).


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Tue Nov 12, 2013, 02:38 AM
(#6)
Shichi-77's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 607
Thanks Dave .
 

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