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how bad was this play.

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how bad was this play. - Sun Nov 10, 2013, 09:36 PM
(#1)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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Was thinking the villain is going with anything and was happy to run with 2 live cards....is that just crazy or what?

Grade b


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Sun Nov 10, 2013, 11:05 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
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Hi grade b!

With T3o, I get a limp and then a shove in front of me. I need to call 1550 into a pot that will be 4000 (38.8%).

Now, I need to go to pokerstove to see if I have this much equity.

The question here is.. is this going to be a HU pot or a 3-way pot.

If it's a HU pot: If the opp is truly playing ATC (a stretch since they have 8.5BB), then T3o from pokerstove has 42.6%, which would make it a call.
However, based on the opp's stack and position, they should be shoving around 32% of hands, which gives T3o only 30% equity.. making it a fold since the hand equity is less than the pot equity.

If it's a 3-way pot: we'll do this one best case (loose 3rd player). Using 32% for the shover, T3o only has 19% equity, so it's a clear fold.
If the shover is playing 100% of hands, T3o only has 19.8% equity.. which is another clear fold.

With the real possibility of being in a 3-way pot (easy folds) and even if a HU pot where only ATC is a call... I'm folding here and looking for a spot where I'm ahead... not one where the BEST case is that I lose 57.4% of the time.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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Wed Nov 13, 2013, 10:24 PM
(#3)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
ty JWK,
I was somewhat swayed by the fact this was a hyper turbo....which is a shame as had i stop to think the villain was not thinking this way.

I would say this is an area I need to work on ....but that is plainly obvious I guess.

Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

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Thu Nov 14, 2013, 12:05 AM
(#4)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Are you trolling?
 
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Thu Nov 14, 2013, 04:50 AM
(#5)
TweedleBeetl's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 1,146
Are you planning to make this move in the micromillions by any chance?
 
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Thu Nov 14, 2013, 08:48 AM
(#6)
effsea's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 3,609
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grade b View Post
ty JWK,
I was somewhat swayed by the fact this was a hyper turbo....which is a shame as had i stop to think the villain was not thinking this way.

I would say this is an area I need to work on ....but that is plainly obvious I guess.

Grade b
yo,

As you know my poker rule #1.......that being said....hiccup

I think you played it correct, having 16k.....with a limper going in, then a small stack shoved, calling it hoping that the limper would fold was a good call, with atc, in this case even if l had 27o l would have done the same.....you have to gamble at times, and this was a small one, you cannot win always playing by the book.

Cheers
 
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Thu Nov 14, 2013, 10:44 AM
(#7)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
Quote:
Originally Posted by birdayy View Post
Are you trolling?

No this hand has had me umming and erring for about 4 days now.

Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

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Thu Nov 14, 2013, 12:40 PM
(#8)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,316
Pot odds are 2450 to 1550. That's a lot less than the 2:1 required to make a call with any two. Added to that is you're not even closing the action. The limper might have a hand, or feel like gambling himself.
T3o is a real trash hand that I rarely even play HU (when I'm playing over 80% of hands). This is a snap fold for me in this spot.
My calling range (or I should say "reshoving", because I want to get rid of the limper) here is something like the top 20%. The worst hands I'm re-jamming are QJo and 87s. Anything much below those is barely more than flipping against ATC.


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Thu Nov 14, 2013, 12:44 PM
(#9)
effsea's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 3,609
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
Pot odds are 2450 to 1550. That's a lot less than the 2:1 required to make a call with any two. Added to that is you're not even closing the action. The limper might have a hand, or feel like gambling himself.
T3o is a real trash hand that I rarely even play HU (when I'm playing over 80% of hands). This is a snap fold for me in this spot.
My calling range (or I should say "reshoving", because I want to get rid of the limper) here is something like the top 20%. The worst hands I'm re-jamming are QJo and 87s. Anything much below those is barely more than flipping against ATC.

Your right Arty........this way of thinking is by the book.......but the game does not play only by the book.

Cheers man
 
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Thu Nov 14, 2013, 02:26 PM
(#10)
Christxof's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 256
I am going to be slightly contradictory from the other posters here when I say: this WAS a bad play, but it wasn't AS bad as most are making it out to be. It's definitely bad, but it isn't even close to the worst. Let me explain my thoughts:

In Harrington on Holdem vol. 2, Dan Harrington mentions that he has a certain policy where he will call a shove with any 2 cards under certain conditions, which are as follows:

1. It is the final table of an MTT, the money has burst, and there are big pay jumps.
2. You are in the big blind.
3. The shover has 15bb or less.
4. Your stack is at least 10 times as big as the shover's.
5. No one else is in the pot.

He says that if these cases are all true, he will call with any 2 cards to try to eliminate the shover, increasing the pay jumps and giving himself a better chance at winning - if he loses, he loses less than 10% of his stack and still has a good chance.

That being said, your hand here fit with conditions 2, 3, and ALMOST 4. But there was no indication that this was a final table, so even if you were in the money (possible), the pay jumps aren't huge yet. Not only that, but a stack just as big as yours was already in the pot.

So with those last two points in mind, this was a clear fold. It was a bad play. But there IS some logic behind doing something like this in specific circumstances. This just wasn't one of them.

PS: This is also NEVER a call in a cash game, which play much differently.
 
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Thu Nov 14, 2013, 04:24 PM
(#11)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
Thank you every one for the input, I shall add it to the list of things I will be working on in my 2014 goals.

Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Thu Nov 14, 2013, 07:37 PM
(#12)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Didn't meant to be rude Grade, just thought this is the most obvious fold ever.
 
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Thu Nov 14, 2013, 07:59 PM
(#13)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
Quote:
Originally Posted by birdayy View Post
Didn't meant to be rude Grade, just thought this is the most obvious fold ever.

I didn't take it to be rude. I misplayed the hand I guess my question was eacatly how bad the play was yes did not have odds but that said given the range I was thinking ie top 30% it was not that far out (it is out and is a part of the game i need to work on.

It threw me at the time and i was making some bad in game adjustments after it, Normally I would shake it off yep played it bad got lucky but just needed to work it through..

How would you feel if it was T8 o or T8 s ??? is it a call then?

Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

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Thu Nov 14, 2013, 08:12 PM
(#14)
JWK24's Avatar
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T8o only has 34.6% equity HU.. so it's a fold. T8s is a marginal fold HU

Both, I'd snap fold since it could be a 3-way pot.

John (JWK24)


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Thu Nov 14, 2013, 10:53 PM
(#15)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
That's the main point about this hand.

We are 3 way.

If it was a SB shove, then we could construct a range we could call with, because there is only one player to worry about.

In fact, this situation (HU) has already been looked at via nash charts for 10bb: http://www.holdemresources.net/h/poker-theory/hune.html

It's not optimal because every opponent is different but it's a good place to start.
 
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Thu Nov 14, 2013, 11:32 PM
(#16)
JWK24's Avatar
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Hey all!

Just an FYI for you. The software that birdayy references is on the list from PS that is banned from being used when the PS client is open. Here is the full SOFTWARE LIST.

John (JWK24)


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Thu Nov 14, 2013, 11:37 PM
(#17)
effsea's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 3,609
Quote:
Originally Posted by birdayy View Post
Didn't meant to be rude Grade, just thought this is the most obvious fold ever.

Howdy....l'm not rude, just a little tipsy......hiccup

I think it only cost about 1550 in chips to call....hoping that the limper will fold........

Was worth the gamble......if the limper goes over the top or better......l fold,

No big deal......anyways.....only my look on it

Cheers All
 
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Fri Nov 15, 2013, 04:06 AM
(#18)
nhynyx's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 11
I would like to say this first. I am not trying to belittle anyone, or make anyone feel bad or say they suck. I'm offering my honest opinion just like anyone else here. It's a public forum, this is what it's here for.

T3 in this spot should be a very easy and automatic fold. If you think otherwise, I truly think you need to step back from the game and review your thought process and how you think about the game.

To think that he is shoving ATC is an absolute tragedy of a conclusion, and would possibly be the largest mistake you could make in this spot. Most players in this spot will understand they have ZERO FOLD EQUITY when shoving ~5.5bb's into a big stack limper. He is shoving ~32%. The fact that this is a hyper turbo might sway some peoples thought process, but it shouldn't.

Even if he was shoving ATC, you have T3o, aren't closing the action, and have to fold if the original limper re-raises. If he just calls, you are oop in a 3spr pot, with a useless hand. You have to call off almost 10% of your stack here, not even knowing if it will be a HU pot. With T3o.

I gave him a shoving range of around 32%. Any ace, any pair, any broadway, K7s+, Q7s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s+.

T3o has 31% equity vs this range.

32o has 29% equity vs this range.

Would you make this same call with 32o?

Just because you have chips doesn't mean you have to use them poorly. If this was bvb and he shoved and you were getting 2:1, would you call with 32o just because you were getting 2:1? Players often think just because they are getting odds, they have to do something. "Well I'm getting 2:1, gotta call!"

Nope. You don't. But please do if you are playing me.

You asked an honest question, and this is an honest answer.
 
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Sun Nov 17, 2013, 07:55 PM
(#19)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
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This thread caught my eye for a bunch of reasons - first, there's actually some people who raise with a 100% range in the zoom pool, so it's a question that some of us actually have to face ... like how low can we go with our card selection when calling and it's say blind vs blind and we have position? (T3o vs 100% range is 42.5% vs 57.5% according to Pokerstove)


And then second, it's always interesting to see stuff that's outside the box, because sometimes that's where fresh ideas are born - like sometimes with a little tinkering around ...


Like take a look at this hand of Andre Coimbra's - he chose to call a min-raise with 45o in the blinds, oop with post-flop play:

http://www.boomplayer.com/poker-hand...535_FDD2D82441

Sounds like he felt the call might have been a mistake, but he must have felt he had sufficient reads and an edge over the villain, so like ... maybe when the price to call is a lot smaller, and those conditions exist, *sometimes* there might be opportunity as a big stack to play more marginal hands?


And then yeah, blind vs blind in the bb (with position) would be more ideal probably.

Also, okay like checking poker stove, if the villain actually had like a 20% shoving range, T3o only had 28% equity. But if you change the hand to T3s the equity improves to 32%, and for T9o it's 33%.

So, hands that are suited and connected tend to have more equity, and then ones with higher value too usually. But given the cards you had ... it's kind of an interesting spot in that you had the short stack covered 10 times over.

On the other hand maybe, with a larger stack that had everyone at the table covered several times over and not just the short stack, if you were to call and lose, you wouldn't have to worry so much about being the shorter stack in a future all-in?


Just some random thoughts that came to mind in looking at this spot I guess ... there's so many different ways to play poker ... and maybe that's part of what makes it so fun

Last edited by TrustySam; Sun Nov 17, 2013 at 08:03 PM..
 

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