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10NL Zoom (6 max) - TPTK [MP] Vs Raise OTF on w/board

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10NL Zoom (6 max) - TPTK [MP] Vs Raise OTF on w/board - Mon Nov 11, 2013, 09:50 AM
(#1)
Prodigy237's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 336
BronzeStar


Background:

Hero: 15/12/4 (386 hands)
Villain: 35/25/10 (42 hands)

This is another hand from my recent 10NL shot. I had no information on the Villain other than his stats suggest he's a LAG player [... although small sample].

Pre-flop:

Is standard... I make a 3x R from MP + 2 callers [SB] & [BB].

Flop:

I hit TPTK on w/board & it was 'x' back to me, so made a healthy cbet to protect against draws etc. Villain 2 [SB] x/r to $1.90. BB folds. Hero folds.

My thoughts:

Villain could be taking this line this with s/d & f/d, but also to protect his sets / TP hands... & there are a lot of scare cards that can come OTT eg. clubs, A, K, J, T etc, so given I was on a 'shot' opted for the low variance... & hopefully correct play?

Questions:

1. Do you agree with my analysis?
2. Correct fold?

Welcome your thoughts / comments.

Tony

Last edited by Prodigy237; Mon Nov 11, 2013 at 10:00 AM.. Reason: Added
 
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Mon Nov 11, 2013, 10:34 AM
(#2)
Taunto_88's Avatar
Since: Aug 2012
Posts: 57
I agree with your thought process and a lil way on how you went about it on the hand. QJ,KQ,T9,KT,are are reasonable hand in his range. 66 and other PP yes. We do have position. I do believe I may be calling this check raise to see what they do on the turn. Villain's line does appear strong but thats my opinion but still nothing wrong on taking the tighter side and folding. I think a Argument can be made for Folding like you did, Calling and seeing a turn card... or even possibly a min 3 bet to see how the re-act.

Dont know if this helps at all as im still learning the game and far from a pro
 
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Mon Nov 11, 2013, 12:27 PM
(#3)
TommyGun369's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 340
Hi Prodigy,

I see why you are struggling here. I know that playing these situations is not easy so let me give you a little piece of advice

1) PLAN YOUR HAND!
You flop TPTK on a wet board where there are tons of draws possible. This is a monster on this board. You say you bet for protection (and for value i hope) but what are you really protecting against when you fold to a check raise which is not even x3? What if his game style is to check raise draws on this board with a very high frequency? If you are not feeling comfortable playing against a check raise on this board your best plan is to go for check, call, call line. If you check back this flop 10NL players usually start blasting with all their draws and value bet very thinly so you can expect to show a big profit calling dawn. You are more likely to get outdrawn but it is still way better than folding your hand OTF!!! You are giving up on a ton of equity against his range(see point 2). Do not do it.

2) EVALUATE RELATIVE HAND STRENGTH
Your cbet on this board vs 2 shows a decent amount of strength so to make a legitimate value check raise a villain in his position (SB) needs to have 2 pair or better (if he is check raising with 1 pair which is not an overpair which he plans to go all in with he is making a big mistake). Lets look at the board again: How many 2 pair hands are possible? I doubt that he calls with Q6s or J6s preflop (if he does and you see it at showdown that is still a +EV call because the information you gained by seeing a crappy hand like that will earn you a lot more money in the future) so there is only QJ and from his sets he almost never has QQ, rarely JJ, so you are most likely only looking at 66. That is only QJ and 66 from his value hands. Again, i cannot imagine him slowplaying KK or AA preflop but everything is possible i guess so we might add a few combos of those hands in too. Lets look at the hands he can be bluffing with. Hmm.. where to start. KT, T9, any FD for the most obvious draws. He could decide to make a move with AT, 98 or be semibluffing with something stupid like JT, because he does not feel he can just call and get moved off his hand on a later street (that's what LAGs sometimes do you know..). All in all your equity against his range is huge and you can expect to show a big profit by calling flop and probably calling down on most turn and river cards. Since you have no history with the villain I do not see much point in raising and getting it in as in general when villains 3bet a flop in this situation it is almost always a huge draw or QJ,66 and against that range you are no longer doing so well.

3) DO NOT SET YOURSELF UP TO BEING EASILY EXPLOITED
Since you are folding TPTK here against a check raise what hands do you call/raise with?? To be honest with you after i saw this hand my plan would be to start pounding on you and check raising such a wide range that 100% might not even cover it.. Until you adjust at least By the way AQ is actually a very good hand to be bluffcatching with since it decreases his number of QJ combos unlike KK for example that takes away a fair bit of his KT (or possibly even K9 combos?). A simple piece of advice: Do not make hero plays against someone you do only have very limited reads on. And as I was trying to explain folding TPTK here (against that size especially) is certainly a hero play.

Hope this helps.
Tommy
 
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Mon Nov 11, 2013, 01:10 PM
(#4)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
TommyGun's ranging skills are just so sick ... so thorough, and you do it so fast


Hey Prodigy, another spot of yours that reminds me so much of some of mine - that was the big thing that seemed different between 5nl and 10nl when I took my shot, was trying to figure out the value raises from the semi-bluffs. Think I did the same thing as you too for the first 25,000 hands or so, of tightening up and trying to wait for stronger holdings before calling re-raises. But then like ... guess that didn't seem to be happening often enough to be providing enough opportunities to get enough feedback to help with that thing of trying to tell the value bets from the semi-bluffs?


Think the places I started calling flop raises lighter to see what the villain would do on the turn was in spots like this ... like:

- Where the re-raise is smaller
- Cut-off to blinds
- Villain's got a high AF
- Qc6xJc is better than QcTxJc
- In position, etc?


Like funny thing, but it kind of wound up being opposite - that calling lighter wound up being better than being tighter? Although it kind of took what felt like a bit of a leap of faith to find that out? Guess what I was doing just wasn't working, so it felt like it was worth a shot ... so much monkey business from the cut-off to blinds
 
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Mon Nov 11, 2013, 05:16 PM
(#5)
Prodigy237's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 336
BronzeStar
Hey Tommy [& Sam],

Firstly, thank you for your comprehensive hand analysis... It is excellent.

Ordinarily, I would rarely [... if at all] fold OTF with TPTK, however tbh I was mindful that I was only taking a 'shot' & in turn trying to building a BR to enable me to move up to 10NL permanently, so decided there would be better spots for me to exploit, rather than force a potentially tricky one.

However, that said I do take on board your comments regarding Villains value hands, the fact that we're blocking some of his potential outs & it is unlikely that Villain is calling p/f with hands like Q6, J6 etc. If we had called x/raise... presumably we are also calling all non-clubs cbets OTT or if 'checked' to us would you consider betting or 'checking' behind for pot control & re-evaluate OTR?

Thanks again for your comments.

Tony

Last edited by Prodigy237; Mon Nov 11, 2013 at 05:36 PM.. Reason: Added
 
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Mon Nov 11, 2013, 05:47 PM
(#6)
TommyGun369's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 340
Hi Prodigy,

I am glad you found it helpful.

If by taking a shot you mean not playing optimal poker then you should obviously just stick to the stakes you feel comfortable at. The amount of money you play for should not cloud your judgment. Remember, if you take poker at least a bit seriously and are not just a gambler the size of a pot or a bet you are facing is just a number. I agree that when you are moving up you should not be making any crazy high variance plays and stick to what worked for you at your regular stakes. However, you need to ask yourself a simple question: If you were faced with the same decision at 5NL or 2NL would you have played it the same way? If the answer is no, it is too soon for you to move up.
 
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Mon Nov 11, 2013, 06:16 PM
(#7)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Oh, looks like you weren't in the c/o to bb ... guess the aggro's still high from EP to MP to tho, so ... still


Prodigy, I can totally understand why you might have thought your TPTK might not be good - because your bet was so big, and you did it into 2 people ... and then the villain then went and check-raised into two of you. So it isn't totally clear the villain didn't have QJ or 66 - but like with the villain's AF of 10 ... usually by the turn it'll be more obvious, since like yeah with QJ or 66 a villain will usually keep barreling, whereas with draws IF a villain double-barrels they'll almost always try to make their bet as small as possible? And like it's only $1.20 to call to win $3.50?

EDIT: never mind the pokerstove


The aggro at 10nl is so much higher, so the pots seem to get so much bigger so much more quickly - but then the flipside is maybe that when you have strong hands, people are a lot more reluctant to give you credit for them, so ... the payoffs are bigger, and that's fun

Last edited by TrustySam; Mon Nov 11, 2013 at 06:55 PM.. Reason: took out the pokerstove
 
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Tue Nov 12, 2013, 07:37 AM
(#8)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi Tony, Sam, and Tommy

Good thread here guys! Interesting hand Tony, I give you that... It's one of those spots where our decision OTF is not entirely about the flop but about the future card to come given our equity OTF against their x/r-ing range is not that great anyways. Okay so here are my thoughts...

Villain's x/r range on this board: {JJ(50%),66, AQ(50%), AT/KT, QJ, T9, Ac9c-Ac6c}
I think QQ would be more likely to 3bet than to call from the SB. There a 50% chance that JJ would call imo and given his aggression I'd say he might be raising AQ some amount of the time. Obviously like Tommy mentions, there are few combinations of hands we lose to OTF JJ/66/QJ (17.08% of his entire range); Tommy, I think there is less chance that he would raise a hand like JT or KJ because there is one player left to act behind him. In a HU spot I think we might add that to their range given their aggression factor but here I think they would be more inclined to fold/call those hands. So against their x/r range we are a slight favorite. The problem here is that we are against an aggressive opponent and this can be a double edged sword because we will be facing a good amount of bets on later streets and maybe TPTK might be good here in a sense that against an aggressive opponent we might be good to bluff catch. I think if we had the Ac it would be more easy to call, but I think calling is slightly better than folding and we can decide on the turn and look into his street by street aggression although the sample size won't be of great help.

Let's see what turn cards work in our favor and what cards help their range
I would fold if they bet on a K/9/8, all clubs except the Ac - so that's 28 cards in other words we will be folding 56% of the time OTT when they bet. Which leaves us with 24 good cards to continue OTT.
Hmmm... Anyone has a change of mind? I think this one's close imo. and it depends on how much of the time we expect villain to barrel the turn but his betsizing makes me want to err on calling.
 
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Tue Nov 12, 2013, 10:30 AM
(#9)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi all,

Nice discussion! I'll simply try to add to it.

The villain's check/raise is certainly concerning. We expect a LAG to have a wide c/r range in general but it's a bit more scary here because:

1) We have c-bet unusually large, which shows strength
2) It's a multi-way pot
3) His sizing isn't going to illicit folds from a strong cbet range

The tricky part is, if he's a bad lag, none of the above might mean anything to him or even register with him. And, as was pointed out by Tommy, our holding blocks a few value hands, and doesn't block any of the draws he might semibluff.

All things considered here, I would call the c/r, and use our position to make a more informed decision on the turn. I may not fold to a turn bet on 56% of cards, I won't necessarily be folding to a barrel on an offsuit 8 or 9 for instance. The exact turn card, and his turn bet sizing will come into play here. If we get to the river and he bombs it I'll be much more likely to fold because 1) our hand is probably not strong enough to profitably play for stacks in a single raised pot (and the river barrel, assuming he fired a turn one as well, is going to be for our stack or close to it), and 2) his river all in range is significantly stronger than his flop c/r range.


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Tue Nov 12, 2013, 12:07 PM
(#10)
Prodigy237's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 336
BronzeStar
Hi George & Dave,

Thank you for your comments / feedback... It has been a very useful discussion. After I reviewed my session, this hand stood out as I was unsure if I'd made the right play by folding OTF... & on the balance of the comments [above] it seems I was right to question my decision, hence posting it here.

Just picking up on Tommy's point... I also compared my 5NL & 10NL sessions on Sunday to see if my overall decisions were different & whilst I played marginally tighter @ 10NL my stats / results were pretty consistent. I played approx. 1,100 hands [5NL] & 580 hands [10NL] with a win rate of 15.75% & 14.92% respectively. My BB/100 was 40.75 [5NL] & 41.84 [10NL], so must be doing something right.

Thank you again.

Tony

Last edited by Prodigy237; Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 12:10 PM..
 
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Tue Nov 12, 2013, 12:19 PM
(#11)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Looking at the sizing of the check-raise again, it was a lot larger than it looked the first time around - guess it was actually on the larger size, wasn't it? Hmmm, now what?

Sounds like everybody still likes the call



Quote:
Originally Posted by geoVARTA View Post
I think if we had the Ac it would be more easy to call

Couldn't decide if having the Ac or not was better or worse - like it would mean having more equity. But then ... would it take a lot of the draws out of the villain's range? So in the net ... I couldn't decide


Also, didn't know if being deep-stacked with the sb might make it more or less likely that the villain would check-raise with a draw? 2pr+? Maybe neither??

Last edited by TrustySam; Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 12:22 PM..
 

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