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$1.50 18 player SNG - Head's up direct odds call

$1.50 18 player SNG - Head's up direct odds call - Tue Nov 12, 2013, 09:12 PM
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036

A quick one. Is it OK to make this 3:1 call for the win head's up as losing crushes my stack down to 8bb?

My opponent was tight passive and I had no doubt has a piece of the flop. So it comes down to:

Can I count my Ace for some more outs to make the 3:1 call as a bare flush requires 4:1 or this is just splitting hairs?

Snap call you nit?

But I could lose.

Last edited by ForrestFive; Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 09:15 PM..
Tue Nov 12, 2013, 10:04 PM
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Hey Forrest.

Me,I would probably just ship it on the flop.

Here's my thinking...

I like the raise pre-flop,would actually like making it 2.25 more than just a min-raise. Think that extra little bit puts more pressure on the opponent and advertises better for our c-bets on dry flops.

That said...when we get the 2 diamonds plus the K on the flop here and the opp donk bets the pot here,we're playing for stacks if we continue at this point. Money in the pot is too deep for us to be priced out of calling if they shove the turn on a blanked card (though it IS close...). So we've really already made the commitment when we called on the flop.

Reason I prefer to just jam the flop instead is since a call is committing us anyway I want to make sure that the opp is committed as well,so jam the flop,make them put their money in and avoid giving them the opportunity to make a soul read and corresponding great lay down should a diamond or Ace hit the turn. That's the second worst thing that could happen to us here is not getting all their chips if we decide to proceed in the hand on the flop (which I absolutely would be doing myself).

I seriously doubt we can ever get a fold when we jam here (unless their donk bet was a stone bluff,which isn't very likely),but fold equity isn't really entering my thought process here anyway,I would just want to make sure that this hand WILL be for stacks is we go any further. Jamming the flop ensures that (unless they DO fold,which is a great result for us as well).

As to whether a naked Ace is in play for us to take the pot down...even on the flop I would say that we're very,very likely to be holding a case Ace here...only 2 hands I would really be sweating are KJ and 55,just can't see the opp not raising pre with AK or JJ or not folding with K5 or J5. KK wouldn't even be on my radar. I guess they could be semi-bluffing QT here,so in that case we're already ahead and want to fade an Ace. So yeah,much more often than not I would expect the Ace to be a winning card for us.

As played I like the call,I just would prefer shipping the flop myself.

IF we miss then all that really happened is we inverted the stacks so there's still plenty of play left here,we just can't miss again is all.
Wed Nov 13, 2013, 05:10 AM
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
I personally like min-betting in short-stacked HU play. Villain's decision about calling won't really change if you make it or 2.2 x.

It would definitely shove the flop though. You have great equity if he calls, you actually might have the best hand if he also is on a draw and you have a decent amount of fold equity.
Thu Nov 14, 2013, 08:30 AM
ChewMe1's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 574
Hi ForrestFive

Shove flop! It's unlikely that villain will fold his hand after a he pots it on the flop but when we shove we do gain a teeny bit of fold equity and we also get to see both a turn card and a river card.

If we miss our draw on the turn but we're going to call his shove anyway then it makes much more sense to cram it in on the flop because that way we give villain the opportunity to fold his hand.

As played we're priced in to call his shove on the turn. We have to call 4.5k to win 18.5k and I would expect not only a diamond but any ace ought to win us the pot too.
Snap call you nit

Cheers, Chris.

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