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25NL 6m - valueless limbo post flop?

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25NL 6m - valueless limbo post flop? - Thu Nov 14, 2013, 03:43 PM
(#1)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,511
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I thought this hand would make a nice discussion, and would like some feedback as well.

Stats are VPIP/PFR/3B (hands)

$0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: $69.49 26/18/5 (392)
UTG: $10.92
Hero (MP): $25.00
CO: $10.00 13/12/7 (3K)
BTN: $12.75 27/21/13 (751)
SB: $25.00 17/14/4 (7K)

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has A:heart: T:spade:

fold, Hero raises to $0.75, fold, fold, SB calls $0.65, fold

Flop: ($1.75, 2 players) A:diamond: K:heart: K:spade:
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($1.75, 2 players) 4:spade:
SB checks, Hero bets $0.71, SB calls $0.71

River: ($3.17, 2 players) Q:heart:
SB checks, Hero checks

So we make a pretty standard open I think, targeting primarily the BB. We get called by a nitty mass multi-tabling reg however.

How do we get value post flop in a spot like this, with this board texture? Is getting value even possible?

I don't think villain is calling a flop c-bet with any worse hands, so we check behind and actually would be comfortable folding if he bets the turn (opponents specific here obviously). He checks the turn so we make a smallish delayed c-bet. Now we may pick up calls from a few worse hands, but this still may be too thin. However, at least we protect our equity against pocket pairs, like if he's got 77, he's probably not putting another penny in the pot unless he draws out, so we don't allow him to realize his equity in 2 outing the river in those cases.

I think the check behind on the river, as played, is likely a mistake... we should maybe fire a big barrel here to get him off of specifically AQ/AJ type hands... given the player I think he can find folds here to a solid river barrel, and we are subsidized on the play by the river card, as we now chop with those holdings if he makes the call.

Thoughts?


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Thu Nov 14, 2013, 04:18 PM
(#2)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,353
My instant reaction was that your line looks "standard", and it's an ugly "one street of value" spot, but it's certainly an interesting hand. I think we can sometimes bet flop and get called by underpairs, and then check turn for pot control, planning to fold if villain leads at any point, but I think I prefer checking flop and betting turn in this spot, like you did.
Turn bet seems a little small, but that may be a good sizing at 25NL against villain's likely range.
I tend to check back rivers a bit too often (a leak I'm still trying to fix), and would almost certainly do so here, but I agree that you can sometimes get him off a chop if you fire a decent bet. The fact that villain didn't lead the river makes me suspect he's marginal, with something like AJ at best. In the heat of the moment, I'd probably fail to see I was chopping with that, but I think that turning your hand into a bluff has some merit here. As for river sizing, I'm not sure. I make the nitty check-back too often to have much experience of that.


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Thu Nov 14, 2013, 05:39 PM
(#3)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
Hi Dave

One piece of the puzzle would help here. How does the villain view you? He must have 7K hands on you as well. This may impact his pf calling rang oop and well as OTT. Moreover, will he view a river bet as a value bet from you or be suspicious? As it stands, I put him on pocket pairs and suited broadway cards preflop as well as AJo+. His 3b range looks primarily value. So, Im guessing he is more likely to fold hands like KJo oop rather than 3b them.

If I were playing, I would probably have bet bigger on the turn as well. It seems to potentially fit with you holding a wide range of decent hands K10, KJ, KQ and AK, as well as A10+ and Ax of spades picking up a flush draw. Regardless of the turn betsize, I would bet-fold the river. He looks pretty plain vanilla. If he was holding a K, and had he flopped trips or a boat, I would have expected him to bet the flop or raise the turn at least. And I would expect him to bet the river with QQ rather than letting you check it down. The only hand that seems a concern would be J10 of spades.

Normally a pot sized bluff bet would need to work 50% of the time to be profitable. Here is needs to work considerably less since it looks like you will be splitting a large part of the time you get called. I agree, a tight reg is probably able to find a fold here often enough with hands that are splitting to make betting a good option. I can't see him coming over the top with a raise with anything short of a full house and those just dont seem likely.

Greg
 
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Thu Nov 14, 2013, 07:43 PM
(#4)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
It's brilliant to read the views of you guys.

My natural reaction was to just Cbet the flop and turn and check the river. I would then by very annoyed when he turned over AJ and I've spewed off two streets worth of bets without much upside.

What are you putting such a nitty guy's calling range from the SB on? Presumably something like AT-AQ, 22-TT, KQ.

I suppose he might call a turn c-bet with 55-TT just to see what you do on the river. There are relatively few combos of AJ or AQ left. Surely you would have heard about KQ by the turn.

Therefore I suppose you have to value-bet the river and hope he calls down with some pocket pair.
 
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Thu Nov 14, 2013, 08:09 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
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With the opp being tight/passive (the key being passive)... what would they call a river bet with that I could beat? Qx (mostly if spades)

If the opp has an ace, we chop and I put the pressure on them if I bet (do they really want to call to chop)?

I think I'm going to make a bit larger than normal value bet on the river (say $2). Yes, I'm beat by a K, but there are hands that I can get value from... and if a passive guy raises me, then I can pretty easily fold as they then have a K.

I wouldn't want to thin value it because then they could end up calling to chop it with me.

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Fri Nov 15, 2013, 02:53 AM
(#6)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
@John, do you consider 17/14 passive in general, or do you simply mean the line he has taken in this hand? He looks like a careful, low variance multitabler, but I didn't peg him as being passive in general.

Aslo, are you betting the river hoping/expecting to get called by worse, or to force hands you are splitting with to fold?

PS: This isn't critisism, I just want to make sure I correctly understand you

Greg
 
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Fri Nov 15, 2013, 03:08 AM
(#7)
Shichi-77's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 607
Hello, Dave .
I have one question, Don't you cbet the flop with AA-KK, AK? If he knows that you would cbet flop with this hands , what do you represent OTR with betting ? and how do you think why he checked called OTT? Why He didn't probe it? I see just one reason, he didn't want to get raised and his plan was calling down to showdown. That's why I think he wouldn't fold AJ AQ. Does what I think make sense?
 
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Fri Nov 15, 2013, 03:57 AM
(#8)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
You'd think this hand is easy bet.bet.check spot and it's probably something easily overlooked. Interesting!

Here are my thoughts:
Preflop: The SB 17/14 seems to have an ABC tight stats. I might give him a little credit for slow playing a hand if the BB showed some squeeze potential or calling a bit lighter to play MW expecting the BB 26/18 to come along. But the fact that they are mass multi-tabling makes me think he might not be taking the BB into consideration?
I think his range would look like: {JJ-66, AQ/AJ, ATs(50% calls, 50% 3bet) KQ, KJs, QJs, 35% KTs, QTs, JTs (1/3 calls, 1/3 folds, 1/3 3bet)}

Flop: Their range will consist of 41% TP+, 50% weak pairs, 9% gutshots.
Against their TP hands we are losing to AQ/AJ and splitting with ATs and since betting the flop will never get called by JJ-66 (which is the largest portion of their range) there is a case to be made to check back the flop. However, I wouldn't expect JJ-66 to call a turn bet after we checked the flop unless they have improved so by cbetting the flop we are picking up the pot 59% of the time and denying them a free card to hit one of their 2outer or with their gutshots. When we do get called OTF, I am checking back turn. I think the flop can go both ways but I feel that cbetting the flop is slightly better than checking back to deny free cards and because I don't expect our check OTF to get them to either bluff enough or x/c with a worse hand OTT.

Turn: As played, the 4 is insignificant except that it puts two spades on board and now they might call with gutshots+FDs. So clearly we are betting the turn.

River: I would expect some Kx and Ax to sometimes lead turn but given they x/c turn and did not lead river, I'm thinking there hand would look like JJ(rarely), AJ, ATs, KJs/KTs, QsJs. I think AQ might lead turn to get value from worse Ax hands and KQ might lead rivers with their full house 70% of the time and x/r 30%.
So by the river they will have 55% TP, 11% trips, 7% Full house, 27% weak pair.
When we check back the river we will win against 7 combos of weak pairs, split with 14 combos of TP, and lose to 5 combos of trips/fullhouse
So I like the river bet to target TP hands to fold, but we need to make it big enough to get them to fold their Ax hands. But given we checked back the flop, I think it will be hard for them not to call us with their Ax because I think they could expect us to be betting flop with Kx a big portion of the time for value against Ax.

Last edited by geoVARTA; Fri Nov 15, 2013 at 04:46 AM..
 
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Fri Nov 15, 2013, 04:05 AM
(#9)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roland GTX View Post
The only hand that seems a concern would be J10 of spades.
Not a possible holding when we have the Ts
 
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Fri Nov 15, 2013, 05:50 AM
(#10)
Prodigy237's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 336
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Hi Dave [& All],

Interesting hand & discussion. With Villain's profile / stats, I think I prefer a bet/bet/check line here & b/f to R... as we would be expected to be value betting our Ax, Kx hands & checking our draws etc... & could take it down OTF.

Given post-flop action think we can discount Kx hands, as would expect Villain to lead out OTF or raise OTT a good proportion of the time [... I see no merit in slow playing hands like KQ, KJ etc]. I would be a little concerned that b/draws get their OTR & not sure Villain is folding AJ, AQ hands enough to warrant a value bet OTR, so would check it down.

Tony

Last edited by Prodigy237; Fri Nov 15, 2013 at 08:50 AM.. Reason: Added
 
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Fri Nov 15, 2013, 06:18 AM
(#11)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
Quote:
Originally Posted by geoVARTA View Post
Not a possible holding when we have the Ts
That proves my point geo. If he does have that hand, I would be very concerned LOL

Thanks for the correction!

Greg
 
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Fri Nov 15, 2013, 06:19 AM
(#12)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
...
 
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Fri Nov 15, 2013, 07:01 AM
(#13)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roland GTX View Post
That proves my point geo. If he does have that hand, I would be very concerned LOL

Thanks for the correction!

Greg
very concerning indeed
 
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Fri Nov 15, 2013, 10:14 AM
(#14)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Roland GTX View Post
@John, do you consider 17/14 passive in general, or do you simply mean the line he has taken in this hand? He looks like a careful, low variance multitabler, but I didn't peg him as being passive in general.

Aslo, are you betting the river hoping/expecting to get called by worse, or to force hands you are splitting with to fold?

PS: This isn't critisism, I just want to make sure I correctly understand you

Greg
For the villain, the line they're taking in this hand. They are normally TAG (17/14), but they're playing this hand very passively.

I'm betting for both of those reasons. To get value from Qx and to try to get hands I chop with to fold... but if they call with Qx, they probably won't fold Ax as they'll be sticky with 2 pair.

John (JWK24)


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Last edited by JWK24; Fri Nov 15, 2013 at 10:36 AM..
 
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Fri Nov 15, 2013, 10:53 AM
(#15)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
I think we have three river options and they are along the same lines you are thinking

1) check
2) bet one fifth-sixth pot
3) bet 7 dollars

What do you think? I don't mind either 2 or 3. At first glance I didn't mind 1 either.
 
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Fri Nov 15, 2013, 03:52 PM
(#16)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,511
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Nice discussion all around, thanks everyone!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Roland GTX View Post
One piece of the puzzle would help here. How does the villain view you? He must have 7K hands on you as well. This may impact his pf calling rang oop and well as OTT. Moreover, will he view a river bet as a value bet from you or be suspicious?
Not sure since he mmt's, he doesn't seem to make adjustments too much from what I've observed. My stats in these games are 23.8/19.4/8. I am pretty sure he'll view a river bet as value here fwiw.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shichi-77 View Post
I have one question, Don't you cbet the flop with AA-KK, AK?
Almost certainly no. His defending range is largely big aces, KQ, and pairs (he probably flats all pocket pairs to set mine as a default for a single raise). If I have this much of a board lock then his range is now heavily weighted to pocket pairs, and the only way I'll get any action at all from him (realistically) is if he hits his 2 out boat. As much as I'm not a fan of slowplaying flopped monsters, in this situation vs this villain, if we have AA/KK/AK I think we have to as we'll only get action if he hits, and that action could be substantial. I would check the flop behind, and check the turn behind as well. While I'd like to build a pot starting right away on early streets with a flopped boat, this guy just won't oblige with the lions share of his range.

Quote:
Originally Posted by geoVARTA View Post
Flop: Against their TP hands we are losing to AQ/AJ and splitting with ATs and since betting the flop will never get called by JJ-66 (which is the largest portion of their range) there is a case to be made to check back the flop. However, I wouldn't expect JJ-66 to call a turn bet after we checked the flop unless they have improved so by cbetting the flop we are picking up the pot 59% of the time and denying them a free card to hit one of their 2outer or with their gutshots. When we do get called OTF, I am checking back turn. I think the flop can go both ways but I feel that cbetting the flop is slightly better than checking back to deny free cards and because I don't expect our check OTF to get them to either bluff enough or x/c with a worse hand OTT.
Yes, this has merit. I think it's pretty close. By checking back the flop I do save money vs. Kx hands as I fully expect him to bet the turn with those to which I can fold. There's more pocket pairs than Kx though. And part of the benefit of this line in general is to induce bluffs or light calls on later streets, but you're right, this guy won't do those things. If he will value bet turn with AQ and AJ as well as Kx, checking back probably becomes better, but I don't know if he will or not.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Prodigy237 View Post
With Villain's profile / stats, I think I prefer a bet/bet/check line here & b/f to R
This I don't like so much... the initial point of the question is if we can get even 1 street of value from worse hands vs this villain on this board, which I'm honestly not sure we can... but I'm confident we can't get 2. If we do bet the flop and get called, I think betting the turn is just lighting money on fire.


Quote:
Originally Posted by GarethC23 View Post
I think we have three river options and they are along the same lines you are thinking

1) check
2) bet one fifth-sixth pot
3) bet 7 dollars

What do you think? I don't mind either 2 or 3. At first glance I didn't mind 1 either.
Hmmm. #2 is interesting in that it might actually get a curiosity call from underpairs... here that's basically QsJs, since he's not check/calling the turn with hands like 88, so I think the hands this targets for value aren't really out there enough to consider. I like #3, the overbet, but would modify it down to $4... I think this sizing accomplishes the same exact thing as $7 vs. the range we're targeting, and saves us $3 when he was slowplaying a monster somehow. Also the check back flop, small turn bet, river overbet does look like we may have been slow playing AA/AK and are going for the big value now, so it's convincing to hands like AQ or AJ to make the lay down.


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Fri Nov 15, 2013, 03:53 PM
(#17)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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BTW keep the comments coming, any further thoughts?


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Sat Nov 16, 2013, 05:14 AM
(#18)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Yes, this has merit. I think it's pretty close. By checking back the flop I do save money vs. Kx hands as I fully expect him to bet the turn with those to which I can fold. There's more pocket pairs than Kx though. And part of the benefit of this line in general is to induce bluffs or light calls on later streets, but you're right, this guy won't do those things. If he will value bet turn with AQ and AJ as well as Kx, checking back probably becomes better, but I don't know if he will or not.
So when we check back the flop, and they bet turn we are folding TP?
I think I can see your point for folding to a turn lead because we would forfeit our initiative and they could take a turn bet and big river bet line (a line that we are contemplating) to get us off a chop. Because we'd be left guessing. He could also be betting QsJs as a semi-bluff which would get us off the winning hand. When we put it that way, now I think I'm even more inclined to cbet flop as a general gameplan especially when pocket pairs like JJ/TT would want to go to SD cheaply and not turn their hand into a bluff on the turn after we check back flop.
 
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Sat Nov 16, 2013, 06:10 AM
(#19)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
In terms of checking back the flop to fold to a turn lead, Dave has the luxury here of a very strong range. He should check back all AX imo on this flop, its just a unique board texture that allows for it. We don't need to be balanced against someone playing so suboptimally here and therefore folding AT to a turn lead is in the cards both recognizing what our own range looks like, but perhaps more importantly, what his is to bet the turn.

Anyways I have to disagree, with some degree of strenuousness, with $4, if we are trying to get him off a chop. I don't think it will work very often at all. I want to get him off a lot of chops, not just a chop once in a blue moon. A 25nl player will be very hard pressed to fold AJ/AQ to $4 on this river after that flop action. I would even be reluctant to tone it down to 6.25. I think this is a spot to drop the hammer in order to accomplish what we need and I do think $7 > $10 for the reasons you outlined, the rare time we get snapped by a better hand he someone came to the river with, we save $3.

I realize that is a pretty hand-waving argument in the above paragraph, but that's because its based on my experience and not much logic. It is not as if the 25nl player call the $4 overbet with AJ on account of logic, they just do it because that's how they behave. I don't know why. I just see it and make it $7 next time
 
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Sun Nov 17, 2013, 08:59 PM
(#20)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,511
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Fair enough, it may be hand waving bringing about the argument for $7 but my argument for $4 isn't much different, I think it's accomplishing the same thing but the overbet is a play I don't use often so your experiences in this type of spot probably trump mine.

It's an important point that we are virtually always chopping here so adding the extra oomph to the bet only needs to boost folds a small bit to be more profitable than the $4 bet. Thanks for the comments!


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