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Standard equity beat, horrible spot.

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Standard equity beat, horrible spot. - Fri Nov 15, 2013, 07:14 PM
(#1)
doomasiggy's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 48
Only 60% equity pre, but come on, look at this:

PokerStars - $10+$1|25000/50000 Ante 6250 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BB): 25.63 BB
UTG: 70.02 BB (VPIP: 30.30, PFR: 24.24, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 33)
MP: 58.91 BB (VPIP: 31.43, PFR: 25.71, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 35)
CO: 44.64 BB (VPIP: 43.75, PFR: 25.81, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 33)
BTN: 54.79 BB (VPIP: 31.25, PFR: 21.88, 3Bet Preflop: 11.76, Hands: 33)
SB: 8.12 BB (VPIP: 9.38, PFR: 9.38, 3Bet Preflop: 11.76, Hands: 33)

6 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.25 BB) Hero has Q:diamond: A:spade:

UTG raises to 2 BB, fold, CO calls 2 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 25.51 BB and is all-in, fold, CO calls 23.51 BB

Flop: (54.27 BB, 2 players) 6:heart: T:club: 8:spade:

Turn: (54.27 BB, 2 players) Q:spade:

River: (54.27 BB, 2 players) 7:club:

Hero shows Q:diamond: A:spade: (One Pair, Queens) (Pre 58%, Flop 59%, Turn 91%)
CO shows 4:heart: 5:heart: (Straight, Eight High) (Pre 42%, Flop 41%, Turn 9%)
CO wins 54.27 BB

22k up top and he risks 25bb with 45hh vs a 3-bet shove over an under the gun raise.

My mind is blown.
 
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Fri Nov 15, 2013, 07:51 PM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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Why shove pre? A pot-sized raise doesn't pot commit me, so I'd make a std raise.

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Fri Nov 15, 2013, 07:57 PM
(#3)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Quote:
Originally Posted by doomasiggy View Post

My mind is blown.
Mine too,
Why would someone go all in with 25.51BB with AQo??

You gambled...so did he

Last edited by Sandtrap777; Sat Nov 16, 2013 at 09:45 AM..
 
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Fri Nov 15, 2013, 08:16 PM
(#4)
Killeraxa89's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 359
Well yeah you shouldnt shove AQ with so many BB however you got it in good but couldn't hold until the famous river
 
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Sat Nov 16, 2013, 04:59 AM
(#5)
doomasiggy's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 48
Quote:
Why shove pre? A pot-sized raise doesn't pot commit me, so I'd make a std raise.
Pot sized raise is almost a third of our stack. And what are we doing when the flop comes Kxx or 879, one and doneing? Then we've donked off 1/2 our stack with the blinds about to go up.

Quote:
Why would someone go all in with 25.51BB with AQo??
Squeeze shoving AQ 25bb deep there is so standard. Look at dudes stats, guys playing over 20% of hands UTG, he folds so much and we're ahead/flipping against a lot of the stuff he calls. When they fold there, and they fold a lot, we pick up 10bb without ever seeing a flop.

In fact the more I think about it the more I hate not 3-bet shoving. 3-betting to 8bb means that we give the people left to act at the least 2:1 odds to call, better if it goes multiway, and 3-betting to >8bb means that we end up committing ourselves regardless. Meanwhile we know that they can call light, we know that they fold more than half of their range (or at least they should be folding more than half of their range); it's a non turbo so 25bb isn't actually that deep and we know that even when they call we're ahead/flipping against a lot of the stuff that they call with (AJ/KQ/99-JJ).

TLDR; we 3-bet shove here because it's easily profitable.

Last edited by doomasiggy; Sat Nov 16, 2013 at 05:22 AM..
 
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Sat Nov 16, 2013, 09:58 AM
(#6)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
I had to go and search some info that you should of supplied

There was only 49 players left out of 17,094
You were in the money, therefore gunning for 1st
Average stack was about 21bb

At this point, STATS barely have any weight

Being above average stack, a 3Bet of 3x would be a normal play, but if you're gunning for first and are satisfied with $256 for a $10 tournament, than all-in is also a good play.

The same applies to the other player, so he played it the same way as you, going for the glory.

Nice Cash
 
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Sat Nov 16, 2013, 11:05 AM
(#7)
doomasiggy's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sandtrap777 View Post
The same applies to the other player, so he played it the same way as you, going for the glory.
I'm genuinely curious now, why do you think calling 45s to a 3-bet shove here is equivalent to 3-bet shoving AQ vs loose players with money in the middle?

Also, shouldn't we always be gunning for first ignoring ICM spots?
 
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Sat Nov 16, 2013, 11:35 AM
(#8)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Quote:
Originally Posted by doomasiggy View Post
I'm genuinely curious now, why do you think calling 45s to a 3-bet shove here is equivalent to 3-bet shoving AQ vs loose players with money in the middle?

Also, shouldn't we always be gunning for first ignoring ICM spots?
Very simple, to my knowledge, regular or good players will build up a pot with good hands to get value. By shoving, you don't have QQ+, you have A high or K high, so I'm almost at 50% favorite (40%).
If he's gunning for first and he's satisfied with $256 for a $10 tournament, than all-in, besides he's got you covered. I often seen way worst from top players.

As for always gunning for first, it DEPENDS
First, is in the money
Then I'll go for first, but it depends on stack size, other players stack, notes on players

Just my 2 cents
 
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Sat Nov 16, 2013, 12:19 PM
(#9)
doomasiggy's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sandtrap777 View Post
Very simple, to my knowledge, regular or good players will build up a pot with good hands to get value. By shoving, you don't have QQ+, you have A high or K high, so I'm almost at 50% favorite (40%).
Err, what? Since when did people not 3-bet jam QQ+ 25bb deep vs an UTG open? If we were like 30bb+ effective then yeah fine but 25 with two players in is a spot where we either call, shove or fold. Largely because we aren't deep enough that we can c-bet that often. QQ is the nut worst hand of the three premiums to do this with as well, since we know for a fact that they call a lot of their Kx and Ax range if I 3-bet to 8bb; and when you 3-bet Q at least one overcard hits the board close to 50% of the time. I'm not gonna 3-bet QQ to like 5bb here and give people great odds to set mine, that's just silly. You also can't just presume there are no pairs in someone's range because they jam 25bb over a minraise pre, even if we assume they never have QQ+; there are 8 combos of TT/JJ which crush you and suited broadways which also crush you. And if you think the BB is completely bluffing with suited connectors and stuff then he can also have A5 in his range, which again, crushes you, and even more pocket pairs which also crush you.

Quote:
As for always gunning for first, it DEPENDS
First, is in the money
Then I'll go for first, but it depends on stack size, other players stack, notes on players

Just my 2 cents
Aside from crazy ICM spots like we're 2bb deep and there are 3 players all in behind, or where we're in a tournament where the average player is miles better than us like, I dunno, the super tues or deep in a WCOOP, we should always gun for top three at least. Because otherwise we play scared money and end up folding perfectly valuable spots for no reason.

Last edited by doomasiggy; Sat Nov 16, 2013 at 12:23 PM..
 
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Sat Nov 16, 2013, 12:24 PM
(#10)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,819
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A 3-bet to 7BB doesn't pot-commit me here nor does it give any opp the right odds to setmine.. as not a single opp has 15X in their stack.

John (JWK24)


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Sat Nov 16, 2013, 12:26 PM
(#11)
doomasiggy's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 48
And how much are you cbetting? Because as I said above, they don't fold when we raise to 7bb, so assuming one caller you're investing at least 15bb, not 7.

Last edited by doomasiggy; Sat Nov 16, 2013 at 12:28 PM..
 
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Sat Nov 16, 2013, 12:29 PM
(#12)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,819
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If only one opp in the pot, 1/2 pot normally... but here it would pot-commit me, so I'm shoving a favorable flop.
If the flop is bad for me, then since I'm not pot-committed, I can get off the hand. I don't want to be married to the hand just because it's a pocket pair... if I'm beat, I need to muck it.

John (JWK24)


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6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sat Nov 16, 2013, 12:50 PM
(#13)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Why MUST everyone Cbet?
There is such a thing as CHECK and re-evaluate
Especially if you miss the flop

There's no such thing as a standard play, you need to adjust

GL in future tournaments

PS. 1 big win doesn't make a player a specialist
 
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Sat Nov 16, 2013, 12:57 PM
(#14)
doomasiggy's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sandtrap777 View Post
Why MUST everyone Cbet?
There is such a thing as CHECK and re-evaluate
Especially if you miss the flop

There's no such thing as a standard play, you need to adjust

GL in future tournaments

PS. 1 big win doesn't make a player a specialist
*Shrug* never said it did, just that shoving here is fine.
 
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Sat Nov 16, 2013, 01:07 PM
(#15)
effsea's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 3,609
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sandtrap777 View Post
Why MUST everyone Cbet?
There is such a thing as CHECK and re-evaluate
Especially if you miss the flop

There's no such thing as a standard play, you need to adjust

GL in future tournaments

PS. 1 big win doesn't make a player a specialist

yep...what he said....hiccup

Cheers All
 
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Sat Nov 16, 2013, 03:52 PM
(#16)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,353
Villain's call is horrendous, obviously.

I think that shoving, 3-betting to about 6bb, and even just flat-calling pre are are all reasonable options. 25bb is certainly a tricky stack size to play. If you have superior post-flop skills, then 3-betting small or just calling are probably slightly better than shoving, but I'm not completely sure.


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