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$1.50 45 man SnGo Strange Situation with small pocket pair

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$1.50 45 man SnGo Strange Situation with small pocket pair - Mon Nov 18, 2013, 09:32 AM
(#1)
fant_fox372's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 11
Hi

We'd got to the middle stage of the tournament and I'd seen the villain make a few moves from time to time.

I thought the re-raise from the Villain was a bit strange, as it was so low so was suspicious about this and whether there was a pair in the villains hand, hence the check on the flop to try and keep the pot small, hoping to hit the 3, or another low card on the turn.

I didnt like the Ace coming - should i have folded here given that I guess I had 6 clean outs with one card to come, were the odds I was getting not good enough to call?

The bet of 2k on the river I felt was too much for me to call, if it had been smaller I might have done. I guess I got caught in two minds as to whether this was a bluff or not from the villain.

Any thoughts would be gratefully received.

Many Thanks
Chris


http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/rep...ash=42EFDD6C50
 
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Mon Nov 18, 2013, 11:00 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,836
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Hi Chris!

With 44 from UTG, I'm going to open-fold here. If I was in later position, where I'd have position postflop, then I'd open it, but playing it OOP here is something that I don't want to do on this type of chip stack as it's a very awkward one for postflop play (you'll see why in a second).

I now get 3-bet by the cutoff. Here is the first problem. The opp's bet is to 680 and if I want to try to setmine to hit a 4, I need to have 15x the bet in both my stack and theirs and neither of us have this many chips. Due to this, I need to either raise or fold. If I raise, I'd need to raise to 3X their bet, but that bet would pot-commit me, so I'd be forced to shove... not a great option, as best case I'll be in a race, worst case, I'm totally dominated. If I fold, I just gave away just leaked off about 10% of my stack, which is not a good situation either.

If I did see the flop without being all-in (worst of the options), then I'm going to be stuck with a bad situation postflop too. There will be 1660 in the pot, so a standard bet is almost going to pot-commit me, which means that I'd never be able to fold. With 44, if I don't get a 4 on the flop, I'm almost always facing at least 2, if not more likely 3 overcards and with an opp that 3-bet preflop, I'm most likely behind. Do I really want all of my chips in the pot on a flop without a 4... no.

If I saw the turn (which I never would here), the opp bets 800. This bet is close to pot-committing me, but do I really have the odds to call? I need to put 800 into a pot that will be 3260 (24.5%). If all of my outs are good, I have 6 outs (two fours and four threes). From the rule of 4 and 2, my six outs are worth 12% equity. Since my pot equity is way higher (over double) than my hand equity, this is a very easy fold. The only time that I want to call bets is if my hand equity is more than my pot equity. If my hand equity is higher, I expect to gain chips by calling. If the pot equity is higher, I expect to LOSE chips by calling.. something that I do not want to do.

The key here is that on this type of stack size, from early position, I need to muck low pairs. The way that I look at this type of stack size from OOP... if I open a hand, then I need to be ready to 4-bet shove with it if I get raised.. and 44 is nowhere near strong enough to do so with.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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