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50NL 6-Max: flopped set on monotone board

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50NL 6-Max: flopped set on monotone board - Tue Nov 19, 2013, 05:28 AM
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Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
This hand is from a regular 50NL 6-max table. It is the villain's first hand at the table and he is only playing one table.

I've found myself in this spot often lately where I flop a set on a monotone board and don't really know the best line to take.

When the fourth diamond appeared on the turn, I gave up the hand.

Any suggestions?

http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-h...074_5E6C92BAFE

Roland GTX
 
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Tue Nov 19, 2013, 10:07 AM
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TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
Hi Greg,

I think your line is fine here personally. I like checking back the turn as we are no longer likely to get called by worse hands, and we realize our equity against the Ad which could check/raise us off our set.

This opens us up to bluffs on the river of course, but I think we have an easy fold to this action for the following reasons in no particular order:

-His sizing looks like a value bet

-We have a bit of a board lock on the flop with top set... this is a subtle distinction from a set of 4's or 3's here... What's his range to be calling our large flop c-bet? The majority of that range is diamond draws and top pair, with a few flushes and smaller sets. But smaller sets would raise right on the flop at least sometimes, and a lot of players won't turn undersets and small flushes into a bluff on the river here, they'll either blocking bet or check/call. That leaves, by this river action top pairs that are turning their hand into a bluff or flushes. And there's only 1 king left in the deck limiting the ways he can hold top pair.

-Our turn check back range is protected a bit by flushes, making it harder to bluff in this spot. We would probably check back JcJd on the turn for instance, planning to call a river bet. Villain has no read on us so can't rule out a slowplay with AdQx either.

-We would need him to be bluffing 33% of the time to show a profit, and given all of the above, I don't think this is likely.


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