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6max NL Zoom 2c/5c Folding to river value bet. Negative EV?

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6max NL Zoom 2c/5c Folding to river value bet. Negative EV? - Wed Nov 20, 2013, 08:07 AM
(#1)
CptKevUK's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 96
Hi there. This is quite a straight forward spot in some respects. I'm just wondering whether you think this is a +/- EV call in the long run?

Cheers, Kevin.

 
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Thu Nov 21, 2013, 02:28 AM
(#2)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
Hi CptKevUK!

Reads on these two villains would be helpful here. AJo can be tough to play postflop, especially oop in a multiway pot. Yet, it is a strong starting hand in this spot. I would often squeeze preflop by 3betting 3x the original raise plus 1x for the caller making it 60c. This will often win the pot immidiately which is fine.

As played, I think you played the hand fine. The villain called your c-bet, but he could have many Ax hands and pocket pairs that you are beating. Checking the turn looks good.

On the river the villain bets 50% of the pot. You will need to be ahead at least 25% of the time for this call to be profitable. I would expect A6, A8, A9 and A10 as well as pocket pairs 88-KK plus some random air here often enough to make calling +ev. A read on the villain would help better determine his range.

GL and have fun at the tables!

Roland GTX
 

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