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Bad beat or proof of clairvoyance?

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Bad beat or proof of clairvoyance? - Wed Nov 20, 2013, 11:29 AM
(#1)
IBNash's Avatar
Since: Oct 2013
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Wed Nov 20, 2013, 02:27 PM
(#2)
Feskprins's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 450
You have about 40% equity here, this isn't even close to a bad beat. You're flipping against the AK, and add the T7s to that and you're not in particularly good shape (even if you're a slight favourite cEV wise). As played, gotta get it in once you raise, just wrong result.



.....

Last edited by Feskprins; Wed Nov 20, 2013 at 02:28 PM.. Reason: cake and elephants
 
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Wed Nov 20, 2013, 04:43 PM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
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JJ is the favorite to lose. It's only a bad beat when you're a huge favorite.. not when you're an underdog and expect to lose.

John (JWK24)


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Wed Nov 20, 2013, 06:00 PM
(#4)
85FastLane's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 151
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
It's only a bad beat when you're a huge favorite.. not when you're an underdog and expect to lose.
John (JWK24)
^ this ^
 
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Wed Nov 20, 2013, 06:53 PM
(#5)
Killeraxa89's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 359
Preflop JJ AK 10 7
43.7% 36.23 19.84%


Flop 61.56% 2.82% 35.61%

Turn 21.33% 0% 78.67%

River 0% 0% 100%


Obviously because AK was in the pot the equity was way lower. If it was just JJ vs 10 7 it would be 4 to 1 odds that JJ wins in this spot. AK was basically drawing dead on the flop and JJ advantage over 10 7 was cut in half.

I'd have to categorize this as a bad beat cause villain_5 had absolutely no right being in that pot to begin with yet he beat two premium hands by the turn. Just a lucky fish with a suited semi connected hand spewing his chip lead and getting super lucky
 
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Wed Nov 20, 2013, 07:17 PM
(#6)
85FastLane's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 151
I think people's definition of a bad beat is way too generous. I don't think it can ever be a bad beat if you're all-in pre-flop ... ever. Even in the absolutely best circumstances: your AA vs one opponent with 27o with their suit matching your AA suits to eliminate 4 card flushes - you're still under 90% favourite to win. 1 in 10 you will lose. That's not a bad beat. Your circumstance is even less so.

My idea of bad beat may be influenced by casinos who set up bad beat jackpots in which usually medium range quads or better have to be beat. THAT's a bad beat!
 
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Thu Nov 21, 2013, 07:07 AM
(#7)
IBNash's Avatar
Since: Oct 2013
Posts: 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
JJ is the favorite to lose. It's only a bad beat when you're a huge favorite.. not when you're an underdog and expect to lose.

John (JWK24)
Let me get this right, when you are dealt JJ you first exclaim "Oh dear, I'm a favorite to lose this hand"?

Had I known there was someone playing with AKo in the same hand, I would often fold pre but I couldn't have cared less for the BBs range as he had shown himself to be the person who believes this is a game that isn't over till the River and had a VPIP over 85. I had watched him suckout to others and build that chip lead but with JJ I was happy to take my chances.

I cannot fathom why someone would call shoves with T7s there.
 
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Thu Nov 21, 2013, 07:10 AM
(#8)
IBNash's Avatar
Since: Oct 2013
Posts: 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by 85FastLane View Post
I think people's definition of a bad beat is way too generous. I don't think it can ever be a bad beat if you're all-in pre-flop ... ever. Even in the absolutely best circumstances: your AA vs one opponent with 27o with their suit matching your AA suits to eliminate 4 card flushes - you're still under 90% favourite to win. 1 in 10 you will lose. That's not a bad beat. Your circumstance is even less so.

My idea of bad beat may be influenced by casinos who set up bad beat jackpots in which usually medium range quads or better have to be beat. THAT's a bad beat!
I know the odds Lane, but are you saying had your AA shove been called by 27 and lost you would nod and tell yourself yeah he had 10ish%? Thanks for clearing how it can never be a bad beat all in, I did not know this.
 
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Thu Nov 21, 2013, 07:11 AM
(#9)
IBNash's Avatar
Since: Oct 2013
Posts: 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by Killeraxa89 View Post
Just a lucky fish with a suited semi connected hand spewing his chip lead and getting super lucky
That's what I was thinking.
 
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Thu Nov 21, 2013, 07:21 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IBNash View Post
Let me get this right, when you are dealt JJ you first exclaim "Oh dear, I'm a favorite to lose this hand"?

Had I known there was someone playing with AKo in the same hand, I would often fold pre but I couldn't have cared less for the BBs range as he had shown himself to be the person who believes this is a game that isn't over till the River and had a VPIP over 85. I had watched him suckout to others and build that chip lead but with JJ I was happy to take my chances.

I cannot fathom why someone would call shoves with T7s there.
There's the problem. JJ is an underdog in a 3-way pot against even a standard 20% range. The key is that it is a multiway pot and that I absolutely need to be aware of BOTH ranges. Discounting someone's range, especially in a multiway pot is a huge mistake. Most hands play much worse in multiway pots and that's especially true with marginal made hands... there's a reason that many players (including me) think that JJ is the absolute hardest hand to play in NLHE.

John (JWK24)


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Thu Nov 21, 2013, 07:26 AM
(#11)
IBNash's Avatar
Since: Oct 2013
Posts: 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by Feskprins View Post
You have about 40% equity here, this isn't even close to a bad beat. You're flipping against the AK, and add the T7s to that and you're not in particularly good shape (even if you're a slight favourite cEV wise). As played, gotta get it in once you raise, just wrong result.



.....
Right, so pre flop equity is the sole determination of a bad beat?
Replace JJ with AA there, and the J on the flop with A, if he had beated my AA trips and other Villain's AKo by making a flush, then it'd be a bad beat?
 
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Thu Nov 21, 2013, 08:10 AM
(#12)
Danutz75's Avatar
Since: Oct 2013
Posts: 273
Quote:
Originally Posted by IBNash View Post

Had I known there was someone playing with AKo in the same hand, I would often fold pre but I couldn't have cared less for the BBs range as he had shown himself to be the person who believes this is a game that isn't over till the River and had a VPIP over 85. I had watched him suckout to others and build that chip lead but with JJ I was happy to take my chances.

Are you saying that if the cards were face up, you would fold your JJ in a HU situation v AK ?
 
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Thu Nov 21, 2013, 10:58 AM
(#13)
Feskprins's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 450
Quote:
Originally Posted by IBNash View Post
Right, so pre flop equity is the sole determination of a bad beat?
Replace JJ with AA there, and the J on the flop with A, if he had beated my AA trips and other Villain's AKo by making a flush, then it'd be a bad beat?
I never said pre flop equity determines a bad beat. Quite the contrary, you can't run into a bad beat if you're all in preflop. Losing with AA vs AK is the worst you can do but you'll still lose 10% of the time.

And it still wouldn't be a bad beat if we alter the things you mentioned. If you go all in preflop, THAT'S the equities that count. It doesn't matter if you flop quads and then lose to runner runner straight flush. The equities you have when you effectively go all in is what counts, then HOW you win or lose doesn't matter. However, if you flop quads and THEN go all in and lose to running straight flush, then yes, I would call it a bad beat.

Furthermore, I think you're too obsessed with bad beats. It seems like you label most beats or any time you get outdrawn as bad beats. There's no such thing as a bad beat in the game mechanics, it's something we made up. Another observation I've made is that you always seem to shift focus to the villain playing bad rather than looking at the mistakes you made. If you plug that, I'm sure you can improve a lot.



....
 
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Thu Nov 21, 2013, 11:11 AM
(#14)
Killeraxa89's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 359
JJ in this situation was so easy to play. Now with a deeper stack its not avisable to go allin preflop with JJ unless you're risking a small portion of your chips. Never ever folding in this situation
 
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Thu Nov 21, 2013, 11:25 AM
(#15)
GamblingProp's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 714
 
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Thu Nov 21, 2013, 02:17 PM
(#16)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
There's no hard and fast rule you can use to define a bad beat, but my definition would be something like "Getting all in and losing when your opponent/s is/are not pot-committed and you are a big favourite", with something like 70% equity or more. In this multiway pot, you have less than 50% equity, so it's not a bad beat. If it was heads up against T7s, then you'd have over 80% equity, so losing would indeed make it a bad beat.

As others have said, I think you're too focused on "bad beats". Posting them on the forum is just whining. It doesn't change the results, and posting them doesn't make you a better player. In my opinion, your time would be better spent analysing hands where you did have some control over the results. Work on the the things you can change (like your bet-sizes) and stop complaining about players making bad calls. Those bad calls are how you make money.


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Thu Nov 21, 2013, 04:33 PM
(#17)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by Killeraxa89 View Post

I'd have to categorize this as a bad beat cause villain_5 had absolutely no right being in that pot to begin with yet he beat two premium hands by the turn. Just a lucky fish with a suited semi connected hand spewing his chip lead and getting super lucky

Were the cards turned face up when the decisions were made this statement would have some more validity to it. They weren't (BTW,if you or anyone else knows of a site where they are,please PM me with that...thanks ).

As played by the "lucky fish" and their point of view...

In the BB,150 in the pot already...UTG+1 open limps and MP2 4x raises...so 975 in pot and a call of 450 builds it to 1425...31.58% pot equity on calling here IF our call caps the action and the UTG+1 player folds...were we to range MP2 as tight as 5% {88+;AJs;KQs;AKo} we have 28.64% hand equity against that range...so not as awful as one might think at first blush.

Should UTG+1 flat call here...then our pot equity is 24%,as we will have made a call for 450 into a pot that is now 1875...range BOTH players as tight as 5%...and we're roughly 20.7% on hand equity...so again,yes we would be underwater EV wise,but not ridiculously so...main problem I would have with playing here as BB is being OOP,NOT my likely hand equity versus pot equity considerations. They aren't particularly bad and I have 2 advantages here,one hidden and one not...the obvious advantage is I have both players easily covered...4.5 to 1 on the bigger stack...other advantage is that if they are both playing a 5% range they may have blockers against each other and I likely have 2 live cards.

As it plays out...when both players ship I'm getting 25.84% equity on the call here so,again,if BOTH players are at 5% it's putting me -EV but not so bad as to be terrible.

Bump just ONE player to 10% and this gets even closer...make them BOTH 10% and it's nearly a coin flip equity wise.

Is it an optimal play? No,I would say not.

But instead of immediately calling them a fish you may want to consider that this player understood these odds and the fact that with the divergence in stack sizes they couldn't be too badly hurt here and saw this as a reasonable spot to gamble some in an attempt to chip up and try to win whatever this tourney/SNG was.

Lastly for MY personal definition of a bad beat it should entail a big mistake by the villain...that did NOT happen here in my opinion.

Not a bad beat by any stretch of the imagination.
 
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Thu Nov 21, 2013, 06:06 PM
(#18)
Killeraxa89's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 359
Quote:
Originally Posted by Moxie Pip View Post
Were the cards turned face up when the decisions were made this statement would have some more validity to it. They weren't (BTW,if you or anyone else knows of a site where they are,please PM me with that...thanks ).

As played by the "lucky fish" and their point of view...

In the BB,150 in the pot already...UTG+1 open limps and MP2 4x raises...so 975 in pot and a call of 450 builds it to 1425...31.58% pot equity on calling here IF our call caps the action and the UTG+1 player folds...were we to range MP2 as tight as 5% {88+;AJs;KQs;AKo} we have 28.64% hand equity against that range...so not as awful as one might think at first blush.

Should UTG+1 flat call here...then our pot equity is 24%,as we will have made a call for 450 into a pot that is now 1875...range BOTH players as tight as 5%...and we're roughly 20.7% on hand equity...so again,yes we would be underwater EV wise,but not ridiculously so...main problem I would have with playing here as BB is being OOP,NOT my likely hand equity versus pot equity considerations. They aren't particularly bad and I have 2 advantages here,one hidden and one not...the obvious advantage is I have both players easily covered...4.5 to 1 on the bigger stack...other advantage is that if they are both playing a 5% range they may have blockers against each other and I likely have 2 live cards.

As it plays out...when both players ship I'm getting 25.84% equity on the call here so,again,if BOTH players are at 5% it's putting me -EV but not so bad as to be terrible.

Bump just ONE player to 10% and this gets even closer...make them BOTH 10% and it's nearly a coin flip equity wise.

Is it an optimal play? No,I would say not.

But instead of immediately calling them a fish you may want to consider that this player understood these odds and the fact that with the divergence in stack sizes they couldn't be too badly hurt here and saw this as a reasonable spot to gamble some in an attempt to chip up and try to win whatever this tourney/SNG was.

Lastly for MY personal definition of a bad beat it should entail a big mistake by the villain...that did NOT happen here in my opinion.

Not a bad beat by any stretch of the imagination.
Lol you and everyone else have your own idea of what a bad beat is and thats just fine, I know one when I see it too.
 
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Thu Nov 21, 2013, 06:54 PM
(#19)
DrDonkin's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 874
Where is effsea when u need him
 
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Thu Nov 21, 2013, 07:10 PM
(#20)
optimus8778's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 79
Everyone is entitled of his own opinion of bad beats.
"The commonest mistake in history is underestimating your opponent; happens at the poker table all the time."
 

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