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AQo in sb

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AQo in sb - Wed Nov 20, 2013, 07:49 PM
(#1)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604


micro millions 61 $8.80 still an hour of late reg

Villian is a nit vpip 10% pfr 8% 3 bet 5% c-bet 25% over 49 hands on this table

bb playing semi loose but passive at 28/0 (have seen him call raise with k9 from blinds already)

What is the best play?

Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner



Last edited by Grade b; Wed Nov 20, 2013 at 07:52 PM..
 
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Wed Nov 20, 2013, 08:26 PM
(#2)
EmotiveKiwi's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 140
Was 3.5x his normal opening bet size?
 
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Wed Nov 20, 2013, 09:13 PM
(#3)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
49 hands at those stats are meaningless. He could be the don't go out early type, or card dead. They've voluntarily played 5 hands and raised 4 of them. If there were LAG or 2 to the rigt the stats make sense.

I would treat them as an unknown, not a nit. I prefer to treat unknowns as a bit above average until they've proven otherwise.
 
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Wed Nov 20, 2013, 11:10 PM
(#4)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
yes 3.5x was his standard raise.

Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Wed Nov 20, 2013, 11:27 PM
(#5)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrumpinJoe View Post
49 hands at those stats are meaningless. He could be the don't go out early type, or card dead. They've voluntarily played 5 hands and raised 4 of them. If there were LAG or 2 to the rigt the stats make sense.

I would treat them as an unknown, not a nit. I prefer to treat unknowns as a bit above average until they've proven otherwise.
+1
Personally, I would call and since I'm out of position, if I miss the flop, I'll C/F if he bets. AQ is a good hand, you have a positive stack and the blinds are still low.
 
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Thu Nov 21, 2013, 10:11 AM
(#6)
rolo834's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,425
Having his steal % here could be useful and his fold to 3 bet %

small sample but personally AQo is too good of a hand to fold I think - just offering my opinion im no expert so bear that in mind

Were fairly deep top 8% of hands are 88+,ATs+,KTs+,QJs,AJo+ and versus this range were only a 47% underdog so call but proceed with caution against this particular opponent

I await experts advice and compare my "guess"
 
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Thu Nov 21, 2013, 10:50 AM
(#7)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
ty Guys,

for the response so far. All god stuff and makes sense to me.

(@rolo thanks for the input I welcome everyone's option)

I guess I was also being swayed by the "old adage AQo never wins" oh that and the fact that if a call will probably bring in the big blind too

so a few follow up / extra questions I guess.

1. we call and the flop is Axx monotone do we check call / check fold?

or

2. Axx rainbow

or

3. QK9

also I can see how 49 hands are not a big sample size so at what size would you feel happy to trust the stats (or yor own notes for those who do not use a HUD)

I got to a final table of a 180 man yesterday and 7 handed on te final table the largest sample of hands that I had was 41. (i know 180 sng is a differant animal but i'm on my laptop so only have limited access to data.)

many thanks

Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Thu Nov 21, 2013, 11:55 AM
(#8)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grade b View Post
also I can see how 49 hands are not a big sample size so at what size would you feel happy to trust the stats (or yor own notes for those who do not use a HUD)
Grade b
I'll never trust JUST my stats or notes. Lots depends on the dynamics of the table, stack sizes, your cards and more. Stats or notes are just that, numbers and letters, it's just an idea of how the player plays. They should not DICTATE the way you should play a certain hand
When I'm in profit and can afford to lose a few chips, and that I'm really not sure of what to do, I might lean towards my notes.

49 hands is barely 6 orbits, you've seen him in that particular position only 6 times. Most players don't play the same in every position, so the reality is NOT 49 hands but 6. I would go with 10k hands or 1k hands at each position. This should give you an idea, but not something you can trust.

As for follow up, he's the one that raised, so let him CBet and see what happens on all 3
With the A, I might just Check/Raise, with the K, I might just Check/Call
But all will depend if the BB is in and the size of the bet

That's how I would play, but I'm no expert.............LOL

Last edited by Sandtrap777; Thu Nov 21, 2013 at 12:02 PM..
 
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Thu Nov 21, 2013, 02:26 PM
(#9)
rolo834's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,425
Ive really no idea when you can trust the stats and that is the problem.....but at a certain point they are trustworthy and become very very useful...(well do to me anyways)

Nowthen cbetting/flop betting/donk betting again not my area of experise in fact far from it but if im callining with AQo and in yoru A example i hit top pair...I certainly aint check folding then again maybe it depend son hwo much he bets...and his c bet is very low @25%

Rainbo or monotone i play botht th esame ...although i tdepend sagain as do we have a flush draw or not?

for A i may choose to donk bet whereas for QK9 board ck call line may make more sense depending on the sizing

Hope someone clever comes along soon and corrects all my potential mistakes.then again I may have got it all correct

very well done in 180 FT .... think in tournaments stats are less useful as you will indeed have a smaller sample size

I was playing in the micro millions today wont tell you my horrible bad beats lol but this 1 guy got lucky on me and then he claimed to have some stats on me and started to tell the whole table...well im unsure how he collected them maybe I palyed him in play money or a sattellite(doubtful) or cash or SNG but he claimed I hada 3 bet % of 15.1% well I know thats ridiculous and wrong unless I was runnign super hot with a big stack maybe bullying.forget all the other numbers but im sure it was a small sample

In fact he went on to type all my stats and as I looked at my HUD I thought nope youve got all my numebrs wrong hahaha...he thought I was a 1 style where in actual fact at this stage of the tournament I thought I was playing a completely different one...maybe that expalined him bad beating me then again I did have an old note on him and had him down as what I perceive to be a good player yet he raised UTG with marginal and then chased when I reriased with top 2 pair hit his 8 outer on the river

aLso im not so sure about the quote old adage never wins AQo......its a top hand .....any hand can win...i did go thru a stage where ilost with it a lot and rember it clearly yet allthe other tiems i dontremeber so i guess i must won with it

played 4 MM so far 0 cashes still 4 to go and i used FPP so only need 1 cash to make aprofit

not so sure why sandy put lol after im no expert perhaps he finds it amusing that being a non expert is hilarious
 
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Fri Nov 22, 2013, 11:45 AM
(#10)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,836
(Super-Moderator)
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Hi Grade b!

With AQo from the SB, I get a tight opp that opens from the hijack.

To call, I need to put 240 into a pot that will be 640 (37.5%). I now go to pokerstove and see if I have this much equity in my hand. If I'm up against the villain's 8% range, I see that I have 47% equity, so I'm priced in to call if I'm HU against this opp... HOWEVER.. this may not be the case.
If the BB calls, then my pot equity will be 33% and with the opp's 28% range, from pokerstove, I see that my hand has 33% equity... so it's a breakeven play if they stay.

When combining the two situations, it will be a +EV play to call, so I will do so. I'm only going to call here and play fit/fold on the flop, as I do not want to 3-bet even though I'm out of position, as my AQ will be crushed by the range that the tight player will call a 3-bet with.

On the flop, if it's ace or queen high, I'll make a standard value bet (1/2 or 2/3 pot depending on whether or not the BB stays). If I miss or get a flop with both a Q and K, then I'll check/fold. With their low c-bet %, they will only be betting a K. If I get an A or Q high flop and get raised, then I'm going to have to fold and give them credit for a better hand.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Fri Nov 22, 2013, 02:42 PM
(#11)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
ty everyone for thoughts on this hand and indeed the value of stats side bar, I still have a lot of work on hand reading and know what hands fall in a persons range let alone what the value of my hand is compaired to that.

this has helped a lot with that.

Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sat Nov 23, 2013, 08:22 AM
(#12)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grade b View Post
I still have a lot of work on hand reading and know what hands fall in a persons range let alone what the value of my hand is compaired to that
In Pokerstove you can input a % and see a reasonable range. You'll need to adjust it a bit if you have some reads, ie do they like small pairs over small suited connectors.

Hand reading is hard for some to learn, including myself as I fight the tendency to put opponents on hands I would play too often, and never prefected. One essential part is assessing the situation.

Willingness to learn leads to more Good Decisions!
 
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Sat Nov 23, 2013, 11:55 AM
(#13)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrumpinJoe View Post
In Pokerstove you can input a % and see a reasonable range. You'll need to adjust it a bit if you have some reads, ie do they like small pairs over small suited connectors.

Hand reading is hard for some to learn, including myself as I fight the tendency to put opponents on hands I would play too often, and never prefected. One essential part is assessing the situation.

Willingness to learn leads to more Good Decisions!
Funny you should say that TrumpingJoe,

Had pokerstove open yesterday and AFTER some hands were over I was putting the numbers in to see what it looked like.

Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner


 

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