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10NL 6-Max Zoom, AA, straight on Board

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10NL 6-Max Zoom, AA, straight on Board - Thu Nov 21, 2013, 10:06 AM
(#1)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
Villain: 31/23/20 (37 hands). He had already called PF 2bets with 55 and 77 previously.



I am comfortable with my play PreFlop and OTF. However having being faced with so much resistance, is there any point to consider slowing down OTT or OTR? I'd ranged the villain by this stage at JJ+, but should I have factored that he might possibly have 66, 77 or 88 that he would call the flop with?
 
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Fri Nov 22, 2013, 10:20 AM
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TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi spand,

I think betting on the turn is somewhat opponent dependent. I do like it vs. this guy as he seems to be loose, so I don't expect him to fold overpairs, and we avoid offering a free card to flush draws. I think the ranging is good... his 3B % is 20% so on this sample it doesn't mean much, it's probably like 2/10 times, but it's enough to establish he does 3b, and coupled with 2 observations of him just flatting small pairs pre, I think in this hand when he 3-bets and calls the 4b we can pretty squarely range him on bigger pairs, AK/AQ. The big aces he's only continuing the flop with a diamond draw I'd think. We're not sure if he'll bet all that for us on the turn, but I think looser players will call with all of it.


River math: We have to call 10.23 to win 13.98 (half the pot, we can not win the whole thing, only half or none). So we have to chop just over 42% of the time to break even. Since he can bet with impunity once checked to, I assume we will often chop vs. overpairs here. Let's range him:


TT-KK, AKd/AQd: 2 combos of nut flushes, 24 combos of pairs... we chop 92% of the time

Let's make it his best case scenario:

88-KK, AK/AQ/AJ/KQd (this is super optimistic for him, both on the diamonds and on pairs just going down to 88, which we don't think he's 3-betting pre and if he did he may also hold some sets we chop with that we're not accounting for): 4 flush combos + 6 straight combos with 88 = 10 we lose to. 99-KK = 30 combos we chop with. 30 chops out of 40 total combos = 75% chops.

Even in the worst case scenario calling for the chop is very +EV due to the large pot size relative to his shove size.

As an aside, the math works in reverse too... since we are easily chopping enough to call, we should bet and put him all in. His math is the same and he should call for a chop, but this way we give him a chance to make a mistake and fold chops. If he folds even a small % of the time that adds nicely to our EV of the hand.


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Last edited by TheLangolier; Fri Nov 22, 2013 at 10:27 AM..
 
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Fri Nov 22, 2013, 10:29 AM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
One note on the math: it's assuming he bets all chop combos. If we thought he would never bet chop combos then it's an easy fold. Given that he's checked to in position, he probably feels certain we have AA/KK and he can bet 100% risk free, so I expect him to be betting chop combos enough to call here.


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Fri Nov 22, 2013, 03:18 PM
(#4)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
Thanks Dave, great analysis as always.

Tbh I hadn't considered AdKd/AdQd which I probably ought to have done, but it wouldn't change my action anyway.

Your last point makes a lot of sense, the likelihood of the chop is so high that I am going to be forced to call his river shove, I might as well put the money in myself and get the slight EV from the rare occasion he folds.

I recently posted three hands for review which are some of my biggest pots, so of course villain here held 88.

GG.
 

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