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10NL 6-Max Zoom, AQs, Semi-bluff turned into bluff

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10NL 6-Max Zoom, AQs, Semi-bluff turned into bluff - Thu Nov 21, 2013, 10:36 AM
(#1)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
Villain - very little info - 25/25/0 (6 hands)



On the flop - I was just calling partly as a float, partly to try and catch a heart - knowing that the only boat that could likely scare me is KJ, but even then I would have a royal flush draw I suppose!

Turn - once he checks - I assumed he was scared that I would call a 3bet with AK or a big pocket pair not excluding AA. It crossed my mind that he was also slow-playing AK or even KK! However I decided to bet as a semi-bluff with the intention of continuing on the river if he checks whether my heart comes or not.

River - I continued with my plan and got called. Without saying what he had - Ace high was not the winning hand...

Is my plan a +EV play against an unknown or do I not need to take these sorts of lines at these stakes?
 
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Thu Nov 21, 2013, 11:33 AM
(#2)
CaRLoS_DZ87's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 184
BronzeStar
Hi spand,

1.- His line preflop seems really strong, unless I know he squeezes light there I would assume he has QQ+, AK... and a some of the times since he is 3betting an UTG raiser, he is only going to have KK and AA.... so I would fold preflop.

2.- That bluff is something I would try vs someone I know is nitty and capable of doing big folds, because there is something about paired board that recreational players and badregs don't give you credit for trips, specially if there is a busted flush draw.
 
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Thu Nov 21, 2013, 12:50 PM
(#3)
morduk666's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 84
Hey Spand.

It is a big spew in my opinion.

Ok, suppose he checks the turn his range is KK,AK,QQ,AA. It's more likely for him to have four of a kind and trips than pair. If he would fold, he would done that at the turn when you bet.

Why would he check call with AA,QQ? Would he expect the bet from worse?


But this is just a rationalization of horrible -EV play. Don't play this, little preflop mistake could grow into big losses postflop.
 
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Fri Nov 22, 2013, 11:07 AM
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TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi spand,

I tend to agree with Carlos. Preflop call is marginal vs. a strong squeeze range and without reads It end to give credit here.

I don't mind calling the flop to float, as we might play a king like this to slow play. It's 10NL so how good a hand reader this guy is we don't know (probably not great), but something to consider vs a good hand reader is how we can hold a king here? Flat preflop twice with AK? KQ/KJ? We're more repping 55 which is a believable hypothesis preflop, but also an extremely narrow range.

When he checks turn I would only bet like carlos, when we are up against a nitty guy or a TAG that is not a strong player and will not hand read us well. To pull this bluff off, we do have to be prepared to empty the clip on the river, as I would expect them to call turn with AA/QQ/JJ/TT and "reevaluate river", so the only way to win vs. those hands is empty the clip. If they have no pair they'll fold the turn obv, but we already beat those hands with AQ high (except when tied) and those hands will just check down anyway.

The bluff is not good against a loose or weaker player, as they will simply call off with their big pair, because they have a big pair. It's also not good against a strong player who will range us and realize we are repping such a narrow value range that they can call with their big pairs. Given villain is unknown it's optimistic imo to think he fits in that bluffable window.


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Fri Nov 22, 2013, 03:41 PM
(#5)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaRLoS_DZ87 View Post
1.- His line preflop seems really strong, unless I know he squeezes light there I would assume he has QQ+, AK... and a some of the times since he is 3betting an UTG raiser, he is only going to have KK and AA.... so I would fold preflop.
Judging by what you and Dave both said - this is probably a leak that I need to examine - I don't like to fold vs squeezes and I often find myself folding to flop Cbets.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post

I don't mind calling the flop to float, as we might play a king like this to slow play. It's 10NL so how good a hand reader this guy is we don't know (probably not great), but something to consider vs a good hand reader is how we can hold a king here? Flat preflop twice with AK? KQ/KJ? We're more repping 55 which is a believable hypothesis preflop, but also an extremely narrow range.
This hits on a good more general point that I think I can work on - I was trying to range my opponent without really considering how he might be ranging me (if he is ranging me at all).

My thought process was basically "He's checked the turn which probably means he doesn't have AK and might be holding JJ-AA, and there are more combos of JJ and QQ than KK or AA, therefore if I barrel the turn or river, I can get him off JJ or QQ and maybe even AA."

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
The bluff is not good against a loose or weaker player, as they will simply call off with their big pair, because they have a big pair. It's also not good against a strong player who will range us and realize we are repping such a narrow value range that they can call with their big pairs. Given villain is unknown it's optimistic imo to think he fits in that bluffable window.
Villain showed JJ - which very much falls into the loose or weak player that finds it hard to fold!
 

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