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10NL Zoom (6max), Folding AKo pre-flop?

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10NL Zoom (6max), Folding AKo pre-flop? - Thu Nov 21, 2013, 01:53 PM
(#1)
hahaharofl's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 19


Hi guys~

Villain5 stats 32:19 AG 3.2 3B 3.8 270 hands

Is this a horrible fold? He 3-bet my UTG raise from MP seems pretty strong so I think I am only beating his AQ( if its in his range), and most importantly I am OOP so I folded. Plus even if I make a pair its either a win small or lose big situation for me. It's the first time I folded a hand like this so I am not quite sure

Any thoughts?

Last edited by hahaharofl; Thu Nov 21, 2013 at 01:56 PM..
 
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Thu Nov 21, 2013, 07:26 PM
(#2)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Folding AK here is completely fine.
 
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Fri Nov 22, 2013, 11:20 AM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
Hi laugher,

I agree, good fold. If you plug his 3b% into an equity calculator of 3.8%, the only worse hand in it is AQs. And as you note, UTG+1 vs an UTG open is quite likely a stronger range that this. So we are out of position vs. a strong range that AK does not play well against. When we hit the flop and make the best hand we will have a hard time getting value, and when we make a 2nd best hand we'll have a hard time not giving it. When we miss we'll largely be giving up not having position. All of which makes calling unattractive to me. And 4-betting/getting it in I think is a pretty big spew here. The villain is loose so he's not likely to fold any of his premium range, and we'll simply get it in tied, as a small dog, or as a big dog. The only way it works out is if he flats a 4b then folds to a c-bet, but again it's optimistic to have the hand go down this way as he has to decide to flat the 4b pre, catch a scary (to him) flop, and be willing to fold... a parlay I don't think we can bet on profitably. So if both flatting and 4-betting look unattractive, that leaves folding as the most reasonable option imo.

There are not many times I'm folding AK preflop, but this is one of the few I think it makes sense.


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Fri Nov 22, 2013, 12:30 PM
(#4)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
This is confusing.
I personally will call and re-evaluate on the flop
AK has almost 50/50 chance pre flop versus 22+ and KQ+
When you say "When we hit the flop and make the best hand we will have a hard time getting value", so what, you are going to collect money and there's nothing wrong with that.
When you say "when we make a 2nd best hand we'll have a hard time not giving it", I think that's where you separate the good players from the bad, as you need to know when to fold. That's why you need to re-evaluate after the flop.
I see it very often, were AK will be all in on a 4Bet, but I don't, I will just call

Dave, how would you explain, you calling my raise with 58s in Vegas?
You were in profit, makes sense. you had lots to drink....lol, makes sense.
You know me as a tight player, so if you put my range as 22+ and KQ+, I'm 70% favorite, why would you call and not call AK in this hand?
 
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Fri Nov 22, 2013, 03:03 PM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
Hi Trap!

Great questions, I'll try to clarify:

Quote:
AK has almost 50/50 chance pre flop versus 22+ and KQ+
Yes, except his range is more like JJ+/AK here. He's already a tight 3-bettor in general, and here he's 3-betting an UTG raise from UTG+1, which should be even tighter. VS. JJ+/AK our equity is only 40%.


If he were 3-betting as wide as 22 and KQ, I would certainly not be folding.

Quote:
When you say "When we hit the flop and make the best hand we will have a hard time getting value", so what, you are going to collect money and there's nothing wrong with that.
There is something wrong with that, if it costs us money in the long run (over many trials).

Quote:
When you say "when we make a 2nd best hand we'll have a hard time not giving it", I think that's where you separate the good players from the bad, as you need to know when to fold. That's why you need to re-evaluate after the flop.
Good players win more with their winners, and lose less with their losers, but being a good player doesn't necessarily mean we can play all spots profitably.

Let's take an example, suppose his actual holding is QQ. Think about how the following flops might play out and whether or not they'll be good or bad for us:

A73
K55
AQ4
962

The first 2 represent the statement I made, it seems we will win this pot but not be able to extract value. The 3rd one represents the accurate statement you made about good player. While I would expect us to lose less than a huge fish would here, we certainly didn't plan to check/fold to a single flop c-bet on a board we hit, so it will cost us some $ between now and folding... likely more $ than we will win in the first 2 flop cases. Also while it's true that this 3rd flop may be a fairly rare occurance, where we hit tptk and he hits a set, keep in mind this genre of flop also represents other times we improve and aren't winning, like in flop #2 when he holds KK or AA. Flop #4 represents the large % of flops that don't improve us, and while this generally only costs us our preflop call (as we'll likely check/fold the flop), this is the most common occurrance so over the proverbial many trials, these -.60c preflop calls add up against us fairly significantly.

Remember that 40% equity vs. JJ+/AK is hand equity going to showdown. This hand is not likely to go to showdown often. When we flop squarely into what would be our 40% zone (flops 1 and 2 above), we won't be able to realize this equity as we won't get paid much. When the flop is in his 60% zone (flops 3 and 4) we will lose a small amount (the most frequent occurance, flop 4) or lose a larger amount (flop 3). And our equity is actually worse than 40%, since that's including seeing all 5 board cards, but on flop #4 we won't get to do that.

Quote:
Dave, how would you explain, you calling my raise with 58s in Vegas?
You were in profit, makes sense. you had lots to drink....lol, makes sense.
You know me as a tight player, so if you put my range as 22+ and KQ+, I'm 70% favorite, why would you call and not call AK in this hand?
Well first, as I said above vs.that wide a range I would continue with AK. Regardless, here's a couple points:

-A lot of drinks and playing very LAGgy is part of it. (Being in profit is NOT part, I personally believe that loosing up and gambling simply because you're in profit is a leak)

-Your starting range being a 70% equity favorite only comes into play if we are all in preflop, or in for a significant amount relative to our stacks. In this case if I didn't hit the flop you weren't winning any more money off me, where as if I did hit it solidly, I expected to win more off of you, and we had plenty of money behind to bet post flop.

-I also had confidence in my ability (even a dozen or so drinks in) to navigate more tricky post flop spots, such as flopping 1 pair, flopping a draw, or representing certain board textures that were good for my calling range and not your raising range to put pressure on (which works well against tight players).

Am I saying my calling your raise with 58s was +EV? I don't know, maybe it was and maybe not. But I was confident in my ability to maximize the EV of the situation. And at least it was consistent with my image of LAGgy drinking guy. lol


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Fri Nov 22, 2013, 05:15 PM
(#6)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Hi Dave, thx for the reply

When we look at his stats "32:19 AG 3.2 3B 3.8 270 hands", I presume VPIP is 32 and his PFR is 19, that's at the highest peek of a normal range for 6-max, therefore I would assume a very loose aggressive player. 270 hands only represent 45 times at that particular position, how did he play those 45 hands?
Even with his tight 3-betting, with his loose VPIP and PFR, I give it a much wider range.
Is he a regular?, does he play lots of tables? Does he bluff often?, those would also influence my decision.

As for the example, supposing QQ
A73 - Check raise (since he's the raiser, let him c-bet)
K55 - Check raise (since he's the raiser, let him c-bet)
AQ4 - This would probably be the $$$ losing hand
962 - Check Fold
But what if he had KQs, JJ, we could always assume that every player that raises has AA. All I'm saying is that with AK being a very strong hand, it is worth the call.

When looking at stats, every time you had AK UTG and you played them following a raise, how often did you lose or win and what is the end result?

I just looked at my 2013 stats, I was dealt 677 times AKo in EP (UTG), 496 hands won (73%) for a BB/100 of 139.66.
More detail stat:
UTG raise and calling any re-raise with AKo, 49 hands, won 22 (44.9%) for a BB/100 of 219.35

As per my stats, I will take that chance of calling, but will be able to fold if necessary and yes I will lose a few of them, but my judgement on the long term will be more positive.

I'm sure you've got some stats of your own


Here are 2 of the hands out of the 49





 
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Fri Nov 22, 2013, 06:13 PM
(#7)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,353
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sandtrap777 View Post
A73 - Check raise (since he's the raiser, let him c-bet)
K55 - Check raise (since he's the raiser, let him c-bet)
This seems like valueowning/value-cutting yourself to me.
It goes back to what Dave was saying. You win a small pot when you have the best hand (e.g. vs QQ) and you lose a big one when you have the worst (e.g. against AA/KK).

Check-raising seems crazy to me, because it folds out worse hands and only gets action from better ones.

Maybe if you check-raise at higher stakes it looks more bluffy and could induce a villain to spaz out, but in general terms I think it's spewy to raise those dry flops, because nothing worse calls.


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Fri Nov 22, 2013, 07:17 PM
(#8)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
This seems like valueowning/value-cutting yourself to me.
It goes back to what Dave was saying. You win a small pot when you have the best hand (e.g. vs QQ) and you lose a big one when you have the worst (e.g. against AA/KK).
I guess you need to know how to play them, especially with notes you've taken and as for win small and lose big, please re-read the bottom part of my post as 219BB/100 is winning BIG

Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
Check-raising seems crazy to me, because it folds out worse hands and only gets action from better ones.
Crazy to you maybe, if I bet he'll fold, I get nothing extra, but if he bets and I re-raise, at least I get extra money. Sure I left the door open for an extra card if he checks back, but I like my odds. Again, I need notes on the players to play this way.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
Maybe if you check-raise at higher stakes it looks more bluffy and could induce a villain to spaz out, but in general terms I think it's spewy to raise those dry flops, because nothing worse calls.
He's the raiser, so I like to let him cbet first, I guess you need to know how to play them. There's no written standard play, you need to stay away from "standard play" if you want to succeed, but you need NOTES on the players
 
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Fri Nov 22, 2013, 07:44 PM
(#9)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by hahaharofl View Post

Villain5 stats 32:19 AG 3.2 3B 3.8 270 hands

His VPIP to PFR ratio is really low, which seems to suggest that he's got a passive streak - is he passive post-flop when he's got initiative?

Any interesting info in the pop-up?

Last edited by TrustySam; Fri Nov 22, 2013 at 07:47 PM..
 
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Fri Nov 22, 2013, 08:10 PM
(#10)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,353
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sandtrap777 View Post
Crazy to you maybe, if I bet he'll fold, I get nothing extra, but if he bets and I re-raise, at least I get extra money.
I wasn't suggesting betting out. I would be check-calling, to keep worse hands in the pot. If villain has a worse hand, I want him to keep putting money in the pot on future streets. He won't do that if I raise.

This is pretty fundamental stuff. If you have a hand with value, you should only make raises with it if you think you will get called by worse. If nothing worse calls, then raising is pointless, and in many cases stupid.


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Fri Nov 22, 2013, 08:20 PM
(#11)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustySam View Post
His VPIP to PFR ratio is really low, which seems to suggest that he's got a passive streak - is he passive post-flop when he's got initiative?

Any interesting info in the pop-up?

Is the ratio really low ... or really high?? Hopefully everybody knows what I was trying to say
 
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Fri Nov 22, 2013, 09:10 PM
(#12)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
I wasn't suggesting betting out. I would be check-calling, to keep worse hands in the pot. If villain has a worse hand, I want him to keep putting money in the pot on future streets. He won't do that if I raise.
LOL and of course giving him an extra card and losing all the money you've been calling with........smart

Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
This is pretty fundamental stuff. If you have a hand with value, you should only make raises with it if you think you will get called by worse. If nothing worse calls, then raising is pointless, and in many cases stupid.
Ok, so now I'm stupid, well I'm happy being a stupid winning player. Arty try and accept that your style of play is not the only way to play and remember that there's NO standard play. I don't see many PSO members winning with your standard strategies.
 
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Fri Nov 22, 2013, 09:45 PM
(#13)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Sandtrap there is no need to get personal against Arty. There are a lot of players who play 'standard' and do very well in online cash games, from 25nl all the way up to 1000nl.

Just because you are successful with a more unorthodox strategy doesn't mean other people have to do the same.
 
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Fri Nov 22, 2013, 11:07 PM
(#14)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Quote:
Originally Posted by birdayy View Post
Sandtrap there is no need to get personal against Arty.

Just because you are successful with a more unorthodox strategy doesn't mean other people have to do the same.
birdayy, I'm not getting personal and never said people have to play the same way I do, please read carefully.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sandtrap777 View Post
Arty try and accept that your style of play is not the only way to play and remember that there's NO standard play. I don't see many PSO members winning with your standard strategies.
birdayy,
You can read what Profess Awe posted here:
http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/for...145#post462145
You can read what Galfond posted here:
http://www.reddit.com/user/Phil_Galfond
You can also watch Felix video here:
http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/for...473#post436473

PS. Arty never accepted the way I play, always commented negatively about my plays or all of my posts, why? jealousy? I wouldn't be surprised
 
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Fri Nov 22, 2013, 11:08 PM
(#15)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Well everyone in this thread plays well, so everyone made great points I thought

Like yeah, the low 3-bet rate of 3.8% with the 3-bet here coming from mp into utg certainly is troublesome. And yet, yeah from what we've been given of the villain's stats, they're definitely on the extreme end ... like in a possibly spewy kind of a way, depending on if the villain is playing in a similar fashion post-flop?

Probably there's some difference of opinion on calling/folding because with this particular villain, even though he's got a low 3-bet rate, he's also got stats that indicate big leaks? Like with AKo being a top hand, even despite the villain's low 3-bet rate, maybe there's also some profit potential there, depending on if there's anything we might see in the villain's stats post-flop, and depending on if there's anything in the villain's pop-up stats to give us a better idea of how likely it is the villain's got AA or KK?

Interesting substantive discussion everybody!! Have a nice evening!!

Last edited by TrustySam; Fri Nov 22, 2013 at 11:10 PM..
 
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Sat Nov 23, 2013, 08:37 AM
(#16)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
I wasn't suggesting betting out. I would be check-calling, to keep worse hands in the pot. If villain has a worse hand, I want him to keep putting money in the pot on future streets. He won't do that if I raise.

This is pretty fundamental stuff. If you have a hand with value, you should only make raises with it if you think you will get called by worse. If nothing worse calls, then raising is pointless, and in many cases stupid.
Trying to maximize value is now stupid? Do you have a mirror?
 
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Sat Nov 23, 2013, 09:18 AM
(#17)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
This thread has taken a little nose dive and seems to be splitting into factional warfare, tame though the warfare is, I find myself in agreement with certain parts of what everyone is saying.

I totally agree with Sandtrap on the point that there are lots of what are referred to as 'non-standard' plays that seem to work out just as well if not better than the standard line. And that just because someone does what is alien to some doesn't mean it is wrong.

I also agree with Arty that if NOTHING worse will call and better will raise us then there isn't usually much point in raising in he first place. If were ahead they will fold if behind we are inflating the pot with a worse hand. Of course, should we just call, we still risk letting villain pull ahead of us and putting money in bad further down the line. I guess themselves the perils of playing post-flop.
 
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Sat Nov 23, 2013, 01:52 PM
(#18)
Roslyn_akka's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 263
I don´t usually jump on these threads that have gone south like this. This time I will.

I find it extremely sad that these threads have to go to personal stuff. I respect you all and love you all but now all need take step back and think what purpose this kind of talk helps? This place and these talks give clueless rookie like me so much. I just recently find them hard to read cause they go to personal issues.

Please all get along, you all have given so much and have lot to give.

P.S. Don´t make me spank a lot of you!!

Love Roslyn


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Sat Nov 23, 2013, 03:17 PM
(#19)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roslyn_akka View Post

P.S. Don´t make me spank a lot of you!!
You do realize that's just gonna encourage some (most/all) of them (us),right?
 
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Sat Nov 23, 2013, 06:47 PM
(#20)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roslyn_akka View Post
I don´t usually jump on these threads that have gone south like this. This time I will.

I find it extremely sad that these threads have to go to personal stuff. I respect you all and love you all but now all need take step back and think what purpose this kind of talk helps? This place and these talks give clueless rookie like me so much. I just recently find them hard to read cause they go to personal issues.

Please all get along, you all have given so much and have lot to give.

P.S. Don´t make me spank a lot of you!!

Love Roslyn
THANK YOU ROS! Very well said.


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