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MicroMillions 76 $2.20 - how should I play this middle pair?

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MicroMillions 76 $2.20 - how should I play this middle pair? - Fri Nov 22, 2013, 06:41 PM
(#1)
fant_fox372's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 11
Middle stages of the micro millions. I wasn't that concerned with the 3 bet, I had been at the table with this villain for a couple of hours and seen him call off 30BB's against 2 all-ins in the same hand with A8o/s so had him down as a loose player.

Given the potential flush on the flop, I would be looking to bet around 6k, but this would leave me with a half size pot bet if I only got one caller (worse if they both called).

Should I just shove on the flop?

Thanks
Chris

 
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Sat Nov 23, 2013, 01:02 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,800
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Hi Chris!

With 77 in the cutoff, I'm going to make a standard opening raise, which for this blind level is to 2.5BB+1BB for each limper. With no limps, I'll raise to 1250.

I now get called by the button and 3-bet to 2X my bet by the BB. While I would like to call to setmine, my stack is not deep enough to do so, as I do not have 15X in my stack. I have 15X my bet of 1250, but not 15X 2500. This takes calling out of the equation for me so I either need to re-raise or fold. If I 4-bet, this will be enough to pot-commit me, so I now have the decision to either shove or fold.

The key for me here is a read on the button.
I'd be happy to shove against the loose opp, as against their range, I'd be in a flip and with the extra chips due to the blinds/antes/button's call of my bet, I'd be making a +EV shove IF I was up against one opp.
However, this may not be the case. If the button stays (I'll give them a 6% range because they'd have to like their hand against two opps). This drops my hand equity down to 25% and since my pot equity is higher than 25%, I need to fold.

With this being the case, if I think that the button will call a shove, then I need to fold to the 3-bet. If I think the button will fold, then I'll 4-bet shove. It all will be determined by my read on the button.
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As played, when I see that I hit middle set, I need to make a value bet. With 2 opps still in the hand, I need to bet 2/3 pot in order to price out the flush draw... but this bet basically pot-commits me, as I'll have to put 1/3 of my remaining stack into the pot. Since I'm going to be pot-committed, I'm shoving the flop.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sun Nov 24, 2013, 07:02 AM
(#3)
fant_fox372's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 11
Hi John

Thanks for the analysis. I should have added that my read on the button was that he was a tight player, and would have folded to any pre-flop shove I made, he had been at the table a while and had only shown aggression with premium hands. I guess I need to keep looking at that 15x stat for any set mining.

Given I had hit the flop I actually wanted to get it all in against the loose player (and maybe even pre-flop), but the flush potential worried me a little.

I shoved on the flop and they both folded.

I am regularly getting to the middle stages of tourneys (and min-cashed this one) but struggling to get further - any advice as to where I can do some more learning?

Thanks
Chris
 

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