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MM Main Event Jacks on a weird spot

MM Main Event Jacks on a weird spot - Mon Nov 25, 2013, 02:53 AM
GamblingProp's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 714
Villain 7 was playing TAG, Villain 1 was playing loose and Villain 3 was probably the tightest player in the table.
What would you do here?
For me we are either reshoving or folding, I don't believe calling can be a valid option there.
To shove or not shove?
Mon Nov 25, 2013, 10:42 AM
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
no matter how tight villain 3 is he has 8 bb his range should be wide plus no more decision from him, so the question becomes can you beat villain 1 super wide range of hands.

based on that how tight that is is the decision we need to make. If he has only a 10% shove range (and it should be higher) we have 58% against him....if villain 1 folds

if we give villain 1 15% range to call a shove we are a favorite still 42% for us 31% villain 3 and 26% for villain 1

based on that I would shove....but depends on your read of the situation at the moment

Grade b

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Last edited by Grade b; Mon Nov 25, 2013 at 11:01 AM.. Reason: hand replayer does not show all of player 3's chips
Mon Nov 25, 2013, 11:21 AM
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,476
(Head Trainer)
Hi GP,

Interesting spot. I'm actually not concerned with V1 at all, the real concern here is V7. He's a TAG, and is opening UTG with 3 reshove stacks behind him, he should never be light here and he can cripple us. V3 should also have a very strong hand, don't agree that he's ever wide... he's a nit, facing a TAG UTG raise and a loose player's call over which he has zero fold equity. Nit or not, no player should be shoving wide in his spot imo. But regardless, he can't wreck our tournament... V7 can.

As tough as it feels (and as nitty as it may seem) to release JJ preflop, I think I would do so here, and when we think about their ranges (in particular V7 who can basically end our tournament) I don't think it's really that close tbh. If we were short stacked that would be a different story, but I don't want to risk a 38bb stack in a slow structure event against what I perceive to be a strong range in V7 (and even if a shove isolates V3 successfully, I suspect we are up against QQ+ and AK there, so no guarantee to be chipping up).

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Mon Nov 25, 2013, 04:06 PM
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,316
I've been playing about with some ICM analysis tools recently, and I was pretty shocked at just how tight you should be when facing a lot of action in front. A week ago, I would have no trouble iso-raising here (because "JJ is a monster, right?"), but now I think it's a big mistake. The UTG player in particular should be super strong, so I think this is a reluctant fold.

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