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Nightly 30K : OESD+Nut Flush : Correct to shove or check on the turn?

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Nightly 30K : OESD+Nut Flush : Correct to shove or check on the turn? - Mon Nov 25, 2013, 10:22 PM
(#1)
Marc Rae's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 505
Hi All

First time post on PSO, so apologies in advance as I am not sure how to embed the hand in the post (link to the hand replayer HH below).

Villain
  • Have approx 60 hands on him
  • In a HU SRP, he is defending his BB, 100% of the time
  • He is loose passive, 29/9
  • Flop play - he has a tendancy to check back on the flop if he hasn't hit part of the board (Flop CBet 33%)
  • Flop Play - a 40-55% cbet will usually get a fold out of him
  • Flop Play - he has donk bet previously with an overpair (KK)
  • If he has stats on me, he would read me as a 12/10


Tourny Specific Info
-we were approx. 80 from the money bubble.
-I am generally not passing up an opportunity to near double a 50BB stack here, being so close to the bubble.


After leading out with a near pot size bet on the flop, my views on him were this:
1. I ranged him on 44-99 (44 even less likely with his style), a set, a made sraight

On the flop, I decided to reraise his donk bet to leave me a near enough (slightly over) pot bet shove on the turn.

My question is:
1. knowing the info I had on the villan and my range on him, was the shove incorrect on the turn? Pokerstove shows me as a 35:65 dog with his holdings. Even with top set, I am only a 5:1 dog to the river on the turn at worst. A made top-end straight gives him only a 60:40 edge. (worst case scenario to me with any possible overs has me at is approx. 36:64)

Was my line suboptimal here? ie.I should have jammed on the flop, since;
2. I was setting up for a pot sized bet on the turn anyway, and
3. On what I had ranged him on.
4. The villain likely calling my jam on the flop, with his holdings or his perceived holdings.
5. I am not drawing dead here.

OR should I have just checked back the turn to see the river, and possibly have left me with 33BB (although to me this seems far too passive a line to take; after he checks the turn to me)... only to have the river jammed on me obviously (no matter what he held).

OR take a check/call line to the turn. Although I don't like this as I am sure any D that peels on the turn would have killed action for this villain.



This hand was played as below:
http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/rep...ash=D9466913E6

Last edited by Marc Rae; Mon Nov 25, 2013 at 10:32 PM..
 
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Mon Nov 25, 2013, 11:30 PM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
Hi Marc Rae,

Firstly, I'm not sold on opening initially tbh... there are 3 good reshove stacks behind us, and getting it in vs. them with A6s isn't terrible but isn't great either. This is a table dynamic thing too though, if they're all playing tight then we can open liberally obviously and fold to tight shoves from V8 or V1 (and call V2). So I could be sold if preflop reads were given that are favorable to opening.

Post flop, I don't favor the line you took here. I think many players would lean towards shoving the flop with such a big draw. That's not bad, we do have a lot of equity, but I don't necessarily think it's optimal tbh.

My reasoning is based on the depth of money, and the villains range, which is going to be very strong here. He is loose-passive, based on the read you provided we would expect him to be check/folding or check/calling the vast majority of the time on the flop. But he doesn't, he leads into us, and for a large bet sizing. I think we can take hands like 44 out of his range all the time now, and fully expect this player to show 2 pair+ mostly. Against that range we are a 55-45 dog, and he's folding to a shove zero % of the time. Against 2 pair+ we actually need 46.5% equity so this is slightly -cEV. If we mix in a few premium pairs that he slow played pre, we can get it slightly +cEV but don't add fold equity, as he's not folding premium pairs either. So with the shoving line we are basically creating wild variance. Again, it's not terrible or anything, if we are grinding 20 mtt's and looking to go big or go home in the middle stages of events, we might welcome a high variance marginal EV spot like this.

The other option I think is to flat call his bet, and see the turn in position. Part of the benefit of shoving (normally) is when we make our hand they can't get away. But I think this villain type isn't going to be able to find a fold with 2 pair+ even when we get there. So in effect we are exercising some stack protection (we still have 41bb's after this call), and may be able to call the turn as well depending on his bet sizing (and he may even check the turn). I lean a bit more towards the stack protection line here in large part because I do believe when we get there, we are still getting paid off by this guy. And when we miss, we won't be lift with a 9 big blind stack, but will still have plenty of room to work.

And finally, as played, I am taking the free card on the turn and giving up when I miss... this dude isn't folding, and we are just charging ourselves to draw as a distinct dog now with only 1 card to come and our straight outs counterfeited.


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Tue Nov 26, 2013, 01:09 AM
(#3)
Marc Rae's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 505
Thanks for the comments Dave.

Yes, the read preflop was 1. for the steal as I knew I would probably get through except for the BB (didn't play a hand for nearly 2 orbits) and 2. if the BB did defend then had at least some reads on his play. But if I faced a jam from one of the shove stacks, then it's a easy fold for me.

In hindsight, the option of just calling his donk bet to preserve the 44BB remaining and re-evaluate the turn is part of my game that never enters my mind... since when you flop a OESD + nut flush draw, it's too hard not to build the pot then and there. Then again, maybe I didn't factor all of the villains reads based on his pot size donk bet, to just be able to call.

End of the day, the higher variance line taken eventually busted me out before the money.


Appreciate the review on the hand
 
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Tue Nov 26, 2013, 09:14 AM
(#4)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
Pre-flop: This MP raise is a bit loose, particularly with 2 or 3 shovable stacks still to act.

Flop: If you characterise the villain as a loose passive fish and he donk-leads with a pot bet into you, I'd be very concerned that he has flopped a monster. If he was on a draw, chances are he would just check/call the flop and turn unless he hit. I would just call the flop bet here.

Like Dave said, villain is probably not going to be folding after he donk leads and this actually serves us well if we end up hitting one of our draws as he still probably won't fold even if we show some aggression on later streets.

Turn: I really don't like this shove. The 6 quite drastically affects our equity in the hand as our Up and Down Straight draw is now only a chop. Also once villain has called our flop 2bet, he isn't going anywhere for his last 7K chips, perhaps unless a diamond had come. We might as well take a free card and hope to hit. Then we can just fold the river if we miss.
 
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Tue Nov 26, 2013, 10:40 AM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marc Rae View Post
In hindsight, the option of just calling his donk bet to preserve the 44BB remaining and re-evaluate the turn is part of my game that never enters my mind... since when you flop a OESD + nut flush draw, it's too hard not to build the pot then and there. Then again, maybe I didn't factor all of the villains reads based on his pot size donk bet, to just be able to call.
The key here is the villain type and his range to take this action, in addition to the depth of money allowing for the room to just call.

Normally we lean to aggression (vs most opponents) because we leverage fold equity by doing so, and are backed up on the play by solid hand equity when they don't fold. Vs. strong players, it balances our raises with made hands as well.

This situation is unique from that and calling exploits the villain better. He's a loose-passive guy who's marked himself with a big hand. Fold equity via an aggressive line is non-existant. But the fact that he can't fold a strong hand can be turned to work in our favor, because he still won't be able to fold when we get there, allowing us to minimize the damage to our stack when we miss our big draw, but still not lose value when we get there since he likely won't be able to help himself and will pay us off.


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Sat Nov 30, 2013, 11:02 PM
(#6)
Marc Rae's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 505
Cheers for this.

Started to look back at previous HHs where this didn't work out too well for me. Will try to correlate the feedback on how I could have played it better based on villan/tourney stage/etc/etc.
 

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