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Big Chps Stack Always Win??

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Big chips stack vs small chips stack - Wed Nov 27, 2013, 12:22 AM
(#1)
optimus8778's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 79
I have noticed over the years of playing online that when you get deeper in the tournaments MTT,..(short chips stack with premium cards like AA, KK) ,...If he goes all-in preflop,.. The caller, the bigger/largest chips stack player almost always win on the river..SHOWDOWN

Has anyone else noticed this?

..Sometimes my chips is like 1350 and i went all-in with AA preflop, one opp called who has the 2nd largest chip in the tourney with 65k+ chips and with pocket 22... 2 came on the river. Deep in the the tourney-late stage

Actually just my observation coz i've been in many situations like this lol. 35 out of 50 maybe-- late stage tourneys with premium pairs having the shortest or just short stack..And i saw that happened too to my other opps on the table

This is just an example but i think there's an explanation..


Last edited by optimus8778; Wed Nov 27, 2013 at 03:43 AM..
 
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Wed Nov 27, 2013, 01:53 AM
(#2)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
'both players go all-in preflop especially on the river.'

Can't be both.

This sounds something like a rig theorem. Depending on how short the short stack is then the big stack may be within his rights to call with any two cards and pre-flop no random selection of two cards have another random selection of two cards drawing dead.

Perhaps you could post some examples?
 
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Wed Nov 27, 2013, 02:42 AM
(#3)
optimus8778's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 79
Quote:
Originally Posted by bhoylegend View Post
'both players go all-in preflop especially on the river.'

Can't be both.

This sounds something like a rig theorem. Depending on how short the short stack is then the big stack may be within his rights to call with any two cards and pre-flop no random selection of two cards have another random selection of two cards drawing dead.

Perhaps you could post some examples?

Sorry..post edited
 
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Wed Nov 27, 2013, 03:34 AM
(#4)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Yeah it's a conspiracy imo
 
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Wed Nov 27, 2013, 05:20 AM
(#5)
Ron112355's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 478
Quote:
Originally Posted by birdayy View Post
Yeah it's a conspiracy imo


"A weak player may be a nit but a nit is not necessarily a weak player"
 
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Wed Nov 27, 2013, 05:34 AM
(#6)
royalraise85's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 26,026
(Community Coordinator)
Hey there,

It actually is a good question.

My experience is that the super big stacks are usually getting a good price to call a real short stack with almost any two cards, even if they lose they still will be in a dominant position.

Also, a big stack would expect a short stack to shove light when they are down to about 10bbs or below, they don't know you are holding AA, KK etc.

These 'big pairs' are great preflop but at the end of the day it's just a pair

74 offsuit will beat pocket aces 16% of the time, about 1 in 6 times. Our minds will always remember the beats and not necessarily times that our big pairs hold-up.

Also, don't forget that if you shove and get called by many opponents you're chances of winning dcreases even more, that's just the nature of poker.

Raiser


Moderator

Bracelet Winner


 
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Wed Nov 27, 2013, 06:21 AM
(#7)
666bonez187's Avatar
Since: Oct 2012
Posts: 745
poker is the only game that comes to mind where terrible play can get great benefits and the best of plays get punished, such a terrible game it can be
 
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Wed Nov 27, 2013, 06:53 AM
(#8)
optimus8778's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 79
Quote:
Originally Posted by 666bonez187 View Post
poker is the only game that comes to mind where terrible play can get great benefits and the best of plays get punished, such a terrible game it can be
i know what you mean.."donkey festival"
 
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Wed Nov 27, 2013, 10:33 AM
(#9)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
The solution would seem simple....get a big stack early, oh and keep it.

You are right however, I too have noticed that whenever a big stack calls a small stack all in in a tournament it is never the big stack that gets knocked out.

In fact they are often still a big stack what gives!

The other Posters have given the reasons for this AS it is only a small part of their stack and the shorties are pushing wide, they will have the odds for calling these all ins and of course the ones you remember as we lose a player. What we don't tend to remember are the 2 calls the big stack makes that they do not win.

One of the pieces of advice I had read recently was for the middle stages if you are a big stack you can make these lighter calls.


Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Wed Nov 27, 2013, 11:47 AM
(#10)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Observations are one think, data is something else. Late in tournaments meta-game considerations become more important. The game becomes more psychological in nature. Sometimes you must think beyond the hand at play to the end game.

Poker: Minutes to learn, but a lifetime to master!
 
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Wed Nov 27, 2013, 01:34 PM
(#11)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Psychlogically, to whom do you think winning a mid to late stage all in matters more, The short stack or the big stack?

Whose perception of the data, and any conclusions derived from the data, are you likely to think is more skewed; the person who "cares" more, or the person who cares less, and can therefore be more dispassionate?

In reality, lots of things that are likely present in our screwy brains play into the faulty perception presented here:

- overly optimistic self-beliefs
"That donkey cvannot beat ME!"

Well Skippy, I hate to tell you - you probably made some pretty bone head palys along the way to becoming a short stack...we all do :-)

Are you SURE you are not allowing skewed self-perceptions effect your analysis of your "data" here?

- poor statistical skills and reasoning
"I cannot BELIEVE that guy's T5o beat my AKs!!!! It is so RIGGED!"

Well, when all 5 are guarenteed to be seen, AK is gunna lose about 1 time in 3. Once in 3 times happens quite frequently you know, at least as far as our human perceptions go.

Are you SURE you are not carrying a faulty sense inside your head of how often certain hands "should" win versus other hands?

- poor environment for practicing poker reasoning
"I play better when I multi table/with the radio on/with a beer or 5 etc, etc, etc"

Well, no one really "plays better" when they are distracted, or when their attention is split. The EFFECT of the distraction may not overcome the entirety of your positive edge on your opponents, but any distraction will lessen that edge. As a note, profitable multi tablers will multi table not because they "play better", but rather because doing so lets them see more hands. They are willing to trade some of their attention, "downgrade" their skill a little bit via distractions, in order to have more total hands - but this is not them "playing better".

Are you SURE your absolute full attention is focused, to give you the best chance of making effective observations?

- personal psychological tendencies which might skew your perception of gambling events
"I NEVER win races!"

There are a myriad of potential psychological factors inherent in all of us which causes us to be ill equipped to accept the vagaries of fate we encounter at the poker table. For example ADHD, and other less noticable impulse control factors in the brain, when coupled with such things as negative self-image or anxiety prone personalites, can really lead to a "problem" accepting the idea that sometimes you just do everything "right" in poker, and still lose.

Even when we are not necessarily subject to a severe clinical issue with impulse control, this lack of effectively being able to "distance ourselves" from the outcome of luck at the table is a struggle we all as players must overcome if we are to remain poker players. Until we can overcome our feelings of persecution engendered by the simple whims of fate inherent in every poker game we play, we will not turn our focus away from the things we cannot control (the luck), and toward that which we CAN control...

Improving the quality of our decisions.

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Wed Nov 27, 2013 at 01:38 PM..
 
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Wed Nov 27, 2013, 02:36 PM
(#12)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
Psychlogically, to whom do you think winning a mid to late stage all in matters more, The short stack or the big stack?

Whose perception of the data, and any conclusions derived from the data, are you likely to think is more skewed; the person who "cares" more, or the person who cares less, and can therefore be more dispassionate?

In reality, lots of things that are likely present in our screwy brains play into the faulty perception presented here:

- overly optimistic self-beliefs
"That donkey cvannot beat ME!"

Well Skippy, I hate to tell you - you probably made some pretty bone head palys along the way to becoming a short stack...we all do :-)

Are you SURE you are not allowing skewed self-perceptions effect your analysis of your "data" here?

- poor statistical skills and reasoning
"I cannot BELIEVE that guy's T5o beat my AKs!!!! It is so RIGGED!"

Well, when all 5 are guarenteed to be seen, AK is gunna lose about 1 time in 3. Once in 3 times happens quite frequently you know, at least as far as our human perceptions go.

Are you SURE you are not carrying a faulty sense inside your head of how often certain hands "should" win versus other hands?

- poor environment for practicing poker reasoning
"I play better when I multi table/with the radio on/with a beer or 5 etc, etc, etc"

Well, no one really "plays better" when they are distracted, or when their attention is split. The EFFECT of the distraction may not overcome the entirety of your positive edge on your opponents, but any distraction will lessen that edge. As a note, profitable multi tablers will multi table not because they "play better", but rather because doing so lets them see more hands. They are willing to trade some of their attention, "downgrade" their skill a little bit via distractions, in order to have more total hands - but this is not them "playing better".

Are you SURE your absolute full attention is focused, to give you the best chance of making effective observations?

- personal psychological tendencies which might skew your perception of gambling events
"I NEVER win races!"

There are a myriad of potential psychological factors inherent in all of us which causes us to be ill equipped to accept the vagaries of fate we encounter at the poker table. For example ADHD, and other less noticable impulse control factors in the brain, when coupled with such things as negative self-image or anxiety prone personalites, can really lead to a "problem" accepting the idea that sometimes you just do everything "right" in poker, and still lose.

Even when we are not necessarily subject to a severe clinical issue with impulse control, this lack of effectively being able to "distance ourselves" from the outcome of luck at the table is a struggle we all as players must overcome if we are to remain poker players. Until we can overcome our feelings of persecution engendered by the simple whims of fate inherent in every poker game we play, we will not turn our focus away from the things we cannot control (the luck), and toward that which we CAN control...

Improving the quality of our decisions.

Hope it helps.

-JDean
Oh no's,now you all have gone and done it. The Tin-Foil Hattage has done brought JDean from out of the woodwork.

Post,as usual,is 1000% on point.

Good to see you man,have a great Turkey day,you and yours.
 
Old
Default
Wed Nov 27, 2013, 03:50 PM
(#13)
optimus8778's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 79
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
Psychlogically, to whom do you think winning a mid to late stage all in matters more, The short stack or the big stack?

Whose perception of the data, and any conclusions derived from the data, are you likely to think is more skewed; the person who "cares" more, or the person who cares less, and can therefore be more dispassionate?

In reality, lots of things that are likely present in our screwy brains play into the faulty perception presented here:

- overly optimistic self-beliefs
"That donkey cvannot beat ME!"

Well Skippy, I hate to tell you - you probably made some pretty bone head palys along the way to becoming a short stack...we all do :-)

Are you SURE you are not allowing skewed self-perceptions effect your analysis of your "data" here?

- poor statistical skills and reasoning
"I cannot BELIEVE that guy's T5o beat my AKs!!!! It is so RIGGED!"

Well, when all 5 are guarenteed to be seen, AK is gunna lose about 1 time in 3. Once in 3 times happens quite frequently you know, at least as far as our human perceptions go.

Are you SURE you are not carrying a faulty sense inside your head of how often certain hands "should" win versus other hands?

- poor environment for practicing poker reasoning
"I play better when I multi table/with the radio on/with a beer or 5 etc, etc, etc"

Well, no one really "plays better" when they are distracted, or when their attention is split. The EFFECT of the distraction may not overcome the entirety of your positive edge on your opponents, but any distraction will lessen that edge. As a note, profitable multi tablers will multi table not because they "play better", but rather because doing so lets them see more hands. They are willing to trade some of their attention, "downgrade" their skill a little bit via distractions, in order to have more total hands - but this is not them "playing better".

Are you SURE your absolute full attention is focused, to give you the best chance of making effective observations?

- personal psychological tendencies which might skew your perception of gambling events
"I NEVER win races!"

There are a myriad of potential psychological factors inherent in all of us which causes us to be ill equipped to accept the vagaries of fate we encounter at the poker table. For example ADHD, and other less noticable impulse control factors in the brain, when coupled with such things as negative self-image or anxiety prone personalites, can really lead to a "problem" accepting the idea that sometimes you just do everything "right" in poker, and still lose.

Even when we are not necessarily subject to a severe clinical issue with impulse control, this lack of effectively being able to "distance ourselves" from the outcome of luck at the table is a struggle we all as players must overcome if we are to remain poker players. Until we can overcome our feelings of persecution engendered by the simple whims of fate inherent in every poker game we play, we will not turn our focus away from the things we cannot control (the luck), and toward that which we CAN control...

Improving the quality of our decisions.

Hope it helps.

-JDean

relax!! peace man..Thanks for the reply
 
Old
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Wed Nov 27, 2013, 04:36 PM
(#14)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,355
Quote:
Originally Posted by optimus8778 View Post
Actually just my observation coz i've been in many situations like this lol. 35 out of 50 maybe
Bold for emphasis.
Get a tracker and find out for sure. I don't need to check mine to tell you that AA wins just as often as expected whether I have 100bb or 10bb. It might be more at risk of getting cracked if I have 5bb or less, because the pot is likely to be multiway, but the idea that "big stacks nearly always win" is basically imaginary. When you have that idea in your head, you'll suffer from confirmation bias. i.e. You'll remember all the times you lose and get busted, but conveniently forget the times your AA survives. People have a habit of forgetting their double ups, but always seem to remember their bad beats and bust outs. It's only human to be emotional about bad beats, but a tracker should help with your perception.


Bracelet Winner
 
Old
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Wed Nov 27, 2013, 05:46 PM
(#15)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
FYI...

Playing for a spot in a final MTT where top prize = a 10k seat in the WSOP ME in 2014 last night...

22 left, 10 advance to final.

Blinds 100/200 with 25 ante. My stack 7200 in SB. BTN with a 13k or so stack open raises to 525, I 3 bet to 1300. He flats and we take flop HU.

Flop comes 9 6 2 rainbow. I fire 1800 with my AA, and he flats.

turn = Qs, so no straight and no flush draws on board. I ship my remaining 4100 or so, villain snap calls.

I announce "set of Qs?" thinking this is the 'reasonable' hand for him to have played this sort of action...uh uh...

Guy flatted to set mine vs my 5900 behind with 66, getitng what, 4.5 to 1 implied odds (assuming I will stack off 100% of the time he has a set, which I won't cause I MAY play JJ like this and muck with an over card for instance.) to do so?

Flopped set knocks me out. Did I fume?

Nahhhhhhhh....

'Cause earlier a nit flats my open raise from mid position on AJ from his BB with AA, check/calls on the J hi flop when I lead, then checks turn as I check behind. River comes another J and I take like 2/3rds his stack when he makes the crying call of my river V bet with his worthless AA...

You live by AA, and you die by AA.

Stuff happens.


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Wed Nov 27, 2013 at 05:49 PM..
 
Old
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Wed Nov 27, 2013, 07:00 PM
(#16)
moreevmurph's Avatar
Since: Nov 2013
Posts: 5
BronzeStar
You just found the secret to winning tourneys congratz
Now all you have to do is be the bigstack and maintain it easy right?
Obv blinding down to 4bb u wont have a snowballs chance in hell.
Stay ahead of the blinds all about chipstack + position making the right moves at the right time.
Hand value is totally irrelevant if ur chipstack is not a threat to others.

>Follow me on Twitter<

Last edited by moreevmurph; Wed Nov 27, 2013 at 07:11 PM..
 
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Wed Nov 27, 2013, 08:09 PM
(#17)
optimus8778's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 79
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
Bold for emphasis.
Get a tracker and find out for sure. I don't need to check mine to tell you that AA wins just as often as expected whether I have 100bb or 10bb. It might be more at risk of getting cracked if I have 5bb or less, because the pot is likely to be multiway, but the idea that "big stacks nearly always win" is basically imaginary. When you have that idea in your head, you'll suffer from confirmation bias. i.e. You'll remember all the times you lose and get busted, but conveniently forget the times your AA survives. People have a habit of forgetting their double ups, but always seem to remember their bad beats and bust outs. It's only human to be emotional about bad beats, but a tracker should help with your perception.
ty arty..I'm not emotional and can accept the bad beats. It really happens.
just want to get others opinion..you guys played in many cash games already. I'm just a freeroll online poker player..In my opinion no offence.. Maybe it's time to end "this player's game since he's in a short chips stack or simply a stoppage..Like an obstacle"..

Last edited by optimus8778; Wed Nov 27, 2013 at 08:12 PM..
 
Old
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Wed Nov 27, 2013, 08:10 PM
(#18)
optimus8778's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 79
Quote:
Originally Posted by moreevmurph View Post
You just found the secret to winning tourneys congratz
Now all you have to do is be the bigstack and maintain it easy right?
Obv blinding down to 4bb u wont have a snowballs chance in hell.
Stay ahead of the blinds all about chipstack + position making the right moves at the right time.
Hand value is totally irrelevant if ur chipstack is not a threat to others.

>Follow me on Twitter<

I totally agree with you. TY
 
Old
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Wed Nov 27, 2013, 08:33 PM
(#19)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
The secret to winning poker tournaments: Survive until the final table then go on a rush!
 
Old
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Sun Dec 01, 2013, 01:06 PM
(#20)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
Quote:
Originally Posted by royalraise85 View Post
Hey there,

It actually is a good question.

My experience is that the super big stacks are usually getting a good price to call a real short stack with almost any two cards, even if they lose they still will be in a dominant position.

Also, a big stack would expect a short stack to shove light when they are down to about 10bbs or below, they don't know you are holding AA, KK etc.

These 'big pairs' are great preflop but at the end of the day it's just a pair

74 offsuit will beat pocket aces 16% of the time, about 1 in 6 times. Our minds will always remember the beats and not necessarily times that our big pairs hold-up.

Also, don't forget that if you shove and get called by many opponents you're chances of winning dcreases even more, that's just the nature of poker.

Raiser
Hi optimus, be careful on the forum how you word posts, text format can easilly be misunderstood. However do not let some of the comments put you off the forum.
I have highlighted in Royals post in red the important bit.
Royal is spot in is thinking.

It is very nice to see JDean back, his posts are always great, read that one a few times, I do .

I however completely understand your thinking Optimus.
I have been there, wrote the book on thinking strange things about poker and online poker, and can easily explain any thought.

Most of the thoughts when playing poker regular against a virtual audience,can become confused to some people, like at times with myself.

Firstly remember this, and this will help.
Most of the bad thinking comes down to illusions that are created by our own minds.
We are not dillusional we just notice more. But this is just the illusion that is created.

Consider the why's?

Why would a big stack call me with a laim hand?

As Royal says, short stacks push light ranges more than often so it is normally a race.

They do not expect you to have aces etc in your hand.

In the late stages in a tourney you need chips, low stacks often get crushed by multiple calls from big stacks. At some time in a tourney you have to up a gear and PLAY.
Card waiting and not player watching often becomes a tourney downfall.

Sometimes you just have to gamble.....GL

Last edited by holdemace486; Sun Dec 01, 2013 at 01:08 PM..
 

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