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JTo from BB VS SB

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JTo from BB VS SB - Wed Nov 27, 2013, 03:53 AM
(#1)
Shichi-77's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 607
Hello, opened topic in favor of other PS player. We discussed the hand and couldn't decide was it good fold or bad fold.
opponents stats VP10/PR5/3B0(65)AF 0.7, he is multi tabler and as he thought reg. because he couldn't think out hands that might play that way except QQ and JJ folded OTR.
How do you range him?
What would be your decision OTR?

http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-h...250_D30FE91C27

Last edited by Shichi-77; Wed Nov 27, 2013 at 04:49 AM..
 
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Wed Nov 27, 2013, 06:20 AM
(#2)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
 
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Wed Nov 27, 2013, 06:24 AM
(#3)
Shichi-77's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 607
what does it mean?
 
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Wed Nov 27, 2013, 06:28 AM
(#4)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Hey shichi, you're usually good about giving lots of post-flop stats ... what happened to them this time?

Anything interesting happening with the villain's:

- steal % from the sb
- cbet flop
- fold cbet turn
- wtsd, w$sd
- AF?
 
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Wed Nov 27, 2013, 06:46 AM
(#5)
Shichi-77's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 607
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustySam View Post
Hey shichi, you're usually good about giving lots of post-flop stats ... what happened to them this time?

Anything interesting happening with the villain's:

- steal % from the sb
- cbet flop
- fold cbet turn
- wtsd, w$sd
- AF?
Hello Sam, Just don't have them , we don't know anything about his post-flop stats he played just 6 hands at that moment and went to show down just one time.
 
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Wed Nov 27, 2013, 07:10 AM
(#6)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Oh ... shucks

Everyone's probably going to say call, but I don't mind your fold Check-call, check-call from a tight passive reg who had initiative ... that seems to so often be bad news. And then when the tight passive goes and mini-check-raises on the river ... unless your AF was over 4 and you were aggro with draws ... shouldn't your line be looking pretty strong?

So tempting because you're getting such a good price to call, and your hand's so strong


Everyone's going to say call, I just know it ... oh well ...
 
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Wed Nov 27, 2013, 07:50 AM
(#7)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
I don't think the fold is horrible at all.

Is he bluffing? If not, what hands does he do this with that we can beat?

Not saying I could find a fold necessarily but QQ/QT/JJ seem plausible hands for him to have. He makes it reasonably cheap too so he doesn't seem to be trying to force us out of the hand.
 
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Wed Nov 27, 2013, 08:02 AM
(#8)
Shichi-77's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 607
Quote:
Originally Posted by bhoylegend View Post
I don't think the fold is horrible at all.

Is he bluffing? If not, what hands does he do this with that we can beat?

Not saying I could find a fold necessarily but QQ/QT/JJ seem plausible hands for him to have. He makes it reasonably cheap too so he doesn't seem to be trying to force us out of the hand.
Isn't he losing value with checking river ? Isn't he losing value with such a small raise ?
 
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Wed Nov 27, 2013, 08:16 AM
(#9)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shichi-77 View Post
Isn't he losing value with checking river ? Isn't he losing value with such a small raise ?
Yeah, possibly, not saying that I would play it this way as I would probably go quite a bit bigger if I was raising on the river with the nuts or what figures to be the nuts.

I'd say he was banking on the x/r being an option on the river.

Some people love to slow play and lose value when it gets checked behind.
 
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Wed Nov 27, 2013, 08:47 AM
(#10)
MrFlopes's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 152
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shichi-77 View Post
what does it mean?
It means it's a snap call. To me it's an easy fold, but i'm very good at folding. Yesterday Gareth made a training on folding good hands to river raises. Mayabe he says something about this hand.
 
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Wed Nov 27, 2013, 08:54 AM
(#11)
Shichi-77's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 607
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrFlopes View Post
It means it's a snap call.
wow great
 
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Wed Nov 27, 2013, 10:41 AM
(#12)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
The only hand that makes sense is JJ but we have a blocker is it's a mega cooler if he has it.
 
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Wed Nov 27, 2013, 11:32 AM
(#13)
Prodigy237's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 336
BronzeStar
Just a thought... but I would expect Villain to x/r with QQ, QT before the river? JJ is a possibility, but like birdayy said we have a blocker & whilst not impossible think it unlikely. Other hands that we're beating include AK, AT, KT, QJ, ... but not sure villain is capable of x/calling 2 streets & raising with AK... or overplaying AT, KT, QJ. Its a close one.

Tony

Last edited by Prodigy237; Wed Nov 27, 2013 at 11:47 AM.. Reason: Added
 
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Wed Nov 27, 2013, 08:39 PM
(#14)
CaRLoS_DZ87's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 184
BronzeStar
Price is too good to fold, specially vs an unknown player IMO. We have to be correct only 24% of the time to make a profitable call.
 
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Thu Nov 28, 2013, 12:50 AM
(#15)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrFlopes View Post
Yesterday Gareth made a training on folding good hands to river raises. Mayabe he says something about this hand.
I don't think I'm folding, even though he's tight 1) we don't know his steal stats since they're not given and 2) blind v blind people lose their minds more than any other spot. Maybe he slow played QQ or QT, or got lucky with JJ, but I don't think we can exclude AT, KT, T9, or AK from his river range here either, and we're getting a good price.

Gareth is traveling so won't be on for the next day or so, but I'll drop him a link to have a look as well, maybe he has a different take.


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Thu Nov 28, 2013, 03:30 AM
(#16)
Shichi-77's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 607
Thanks a lot to all
 
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Thu Nov 28, 2013, 04:50 AM
(#17)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
hello from the icy floor of the miami dade airport!

This is a pretty close spot I think. What cinches it for me is this " VP10/PR5/3B0(65)AF 0.7, "

The AF = 0,7 tells me that he would not play AK like this on the river, certainly not K9/89. I think with AK he either leads or check-calls because the board is paired. That's important.

Then we have to think about 22. I don't think he takes this line with 22 particularly often, I would expect him to limp/check-raise turn or stuff like that. He could even check-call the river with 22!

This boils down to the hands that beat us, JJ, QT, QQ. All of these are very plausible for him to play this way, preflop and postflop. QQ I think we could even say he probably plays this way nearly everytime.

Where does that leave us with respect to bluffs? Well it is blind v blind and people do lose their mind.

So while I don't see any candidate bluffs that are so obvious, its not an impossibility.

I also don't think he ever does this with a bare T for value, like AT. Pretty impossible it seems to me.

So from my perspective I see 3 combos of QQ and 1 of JJ that are all plausible. There is 1 QTs combo out there, QcTc. As far as QTo, we can't be sure this villain would 3x those hands.

So we have 5 value combos in theory. But in practice how many bluffs can he have? I don't see any. This is a spot where villain has taking the nut slowplaying line, check-call, check-call, check-raise and he is the nut villain type to want to do that (a 10/5 nit with AF less than 1).

I think a fold should be commended here but if you called its understandable, on account of you having a full house

ill go back to my floor now
 
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Fri Nov 29, 2013, 01:35 PM
(#18)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
Thanks Gareth, great analysis. I really wish we had steal info on this villain, I've seen nits that steal blind v blind like crazy, and nits that just don't steal... regardless, this does seem like the nut nit slowplay line, and all the better hands make a lot of sense to see him play this way.


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