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5NL zoom, AQo, Block bet Set on river Vs. Push

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5NL zoom, AQo, Block bet Set on river Vs. Push - Wed Nov 27, 2013, 10:32 AM
(#1)
kalahwang's Avatar
Since: Nov 2013
Posts: 135


- No HUD
- No previous read
- Villain didn't top up to full stack

Preflop:
Standard MP raise w/ AQo, got 2 callers

Flop:
Hit my top pair but wet board, cbet for value, BU called

Turn:
Possible straight hits, but no Flush, cbet for protection,

River:
Top pair turned set but flush draw hits. Decided to play block bet and fold to a push.


Question:
- I folded on the river reraise all in since it was my plan. Should have I called?

- Was it better to have pushed myself?
 
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Wed Nov 27, 2013, 02:50 PM
(#2)
Shichi-77's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 607
I don't like making block bets smaller than usually I do bet, it shoves weakness more than checking ,when you check OTR you may call , but when you make small block bet you fold to a raise in a 99% of the time .If you are intend to fold just fold without small block bet. and I think I would x/f OTR.
 
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Wed Nov 27, 2013, 06:33 PM
(#3)
MintDeal's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 14
After calling a large bet twice, our villains range should be really strong. Mostly 55, 66 and Qx of spades. Like played I would CF the river when facing a large bet as only thing we are beating is weaker Qx what often checks behind, being afraid of AQ or bets small expecting to get called by KK, AA.

I would bet both flop and turn about 60% of pot as betting larger is folding out all the small and pocket pairs what we are beating. And bet fold the river with normal sizing, expecting to get called by weaker Qx and raised by stronger holdings. With smaller bets, I'd expect to get raised by sets on earlier street, as villain wants to get all the money in by the river.
 
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Thu Nov 28, 2013, 12:38 AM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
Hi kalah,

I think the critical thing to note here is that your large flop and turn sizings have set up a river pot of $3.72 with the villain only having $3.01 behind, so we have created a spot where we are committed to getting all in on all except the most scary river cards. This is actually not one of them imo. The worst river card would be the 4s.

Even though the only read on villain is not a full stack, I would generally expect players with a set to raise either the flop or turn, so his just calling imo weights him towards flush draws and top pair holdings. The Qs isn't terrible... while flush draws get there, it also eliminates QsXs from his range. So let's look at hands he might call to the river with:

Flush draws: AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As4s, As2s, KsJs, KsTs, JsTs, Ts9s there may be a few more or few less, depending on things we don't know about the villain, but I think this is a fair estimate, which is 11 combos of flushes.

Top pair: KQ (4 combos), QJ (4 combos), QT (4 combos). Again, maybe a few more or few less (maybe he doesn't play QT for this action, maybe he plays Q9s/Q8s/etc). Vs. a random 5NL player who is not topping up, my best guess is they can not fold top pair, so all these would make sense to get to the river, and making trips, will never fold and always be willing to stack off the last $3.01.

This is 12 combos we beat, 11 we don't... with wiggle room in both directions for each, but over all I think we are roughly 50/50 to have the best hand here. I'm not excited about it, but with the size of the pot we've built, I don't think we should fold this river. I would put him all in personally, rather than give a hand like Qh9h a chance to check down and not pay us off.


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Thu Nov 28, 2013, 02:20 AM
(#5)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Shove
 
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Thu Nov 28, 2013, 07:01 AM
(#6)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
I actually like the way you played until the river.

Your line is super-strong and villain could easily be putting you on KK or AA as well as AQ, which would explain why he might shove KQ thinking it's for value as he's sucked out on your AA.

I think when villain is in position, we would have heard about a set before the river, although it's not impossible that he would slowplay OTF and OTT if he is putting you on a strong made hand.

So on the river I just prefer to shove for value - we can get any worse Qx hand to call. I really hate the block bet line - it almost never works as it either misses value or just gives even more incentive for villain to shove.
 
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Thu Nov 28, 2013, 09:22 AM
(#7)
kalahwang's Avatar
Since: Nov 2013
Posts: 135
thanks for all the input. quite an extensive analysis from everyone.

maybe i'm was trying to use a tactic that is too advance for the current limit I'm playing.

lessons learned.
 

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