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50nl zoom MP 89s makes flush vs rec

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50nl zoom MP 89s makes flush vs rec - Thu Nov 28, 2013, 09:20 PM
(#1)
CaRLoS_DZ87's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 184
BronzeStar
Hi PSO,

CO is 23/12 0,8 hands 26 hands his stack size makes me believe he is a rec.

PokerStars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com

Button ($50)
SB ($72.88)
BB ($79.23)
UTG ($65.33)
Hero (MP) ($50)
CO ($42.13)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 8, 9
1 fold, Hero raises to $1.50, CO calls $1.50, 1 fold, SB calls $1.25, BB calls $1

Flop: ($6) 10, 3, J (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $4.25, CO calls $4.25, 2 folds

Turn: ($14.50) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $9, CO calls $9

River: ($32.50) K (2 players)
Hero...,

Decided too open 89s from mp because SB and BB were also recreational players. I think flop and turn are pretty standard plays, on flop I can just get it in if I get raised, and on turn well I can get called by a lot worst.

On the river I am concern how much value I can get from worst:

Strong hands that don't raise flop that can call a river shove:

TxKd(3x), JK(8x),AdQx(3x) AxQd(3x too optimistic?) 76dd,75dd,65dd,54dd (4x) = 21

Better flushes, AK,AQ,AJ,KQ,JQ,KJ = 6

Best line?

Check-call? seems like I can lose some value, don't think he would turn his hands into a bluff.

Shove? Would be a big bet, maybe he would fold a lot worst and I would get called by better.

As I am writing this, I am inclining into betting $10 and maybe fold to a raise? I target those two pair and straight hands, but I still don't think he would turn something like AdJx into a bluff.

All opinions welcome.
 
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Thu Nov 28, 2013, 09:29 PM
(#2)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,359
I'm pretty sure it's a bet-fold spot, and don't ever expect villain to bluff-raise when you've bet three streets. Recreationals can call pretty wide here, with worse flushes, the straight, and two pairs. I think even KQ calls due to the "wasted pair" theorem.
As for sizing, that's one of my weaknesses. I think about 1/3 pot is good, but with so many combos that can call and lose, making it slightly bigger might be better. Something like $12 would be my preference.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Thu Nov 28, 2013, 10:56 PM
(#3)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaRLoS_DZ87 View Post
On the river I am concern how much value I can get from worst:

Strong hands that don't raise flop that can call a river shove:

TxKd(3x), JK(8x),AdQx(3x) AxQd(3x too optimistic?) 76dd,75dd,65dd,54dd (4x) = 21

Better flushes, AK,AQ,AJ,KQ,JQ,KJ = 6

Best line?

Check-call? seems like I can lose some value, don't think he would turn his hands into a bluff.

Shove? Would be a big bet, maybe he would fold a lot worst and I would get called by better.

As I am writing this, I am inclining into betting $10 and maybe fold to a raise? I target those two pair and straight hands, but I still don't think he would turn something like AdJx into a bluff.

All opinions welcome.
So yeah, I guess how worried we are about better flushes we have to offset by just how many worse hands we think might call a shove on the river ...

Guess this hand's kind of unique in that the straight came in on the river, as well as an over to the board - so like, if someone had what they thought was a monster combo draw on the turn, their hand might have improved but still be behind? Which can be super confusing - so maybe there's even more hands that the ones on the list ... like maybe even KQ and AK with a diamond might call a river shove? Possibly even some non-diamond ones too?

Gosh, my ranging for worse hands that might call a river bet would have been way off at the tables. I'd have only thought to target Jx hands, and have probably been betting too small all this time - what a massive leak if the optimal bet size on the river winds up being a shove


Such an interesting spot Carlos
 
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Fri Nov 29, 2013, 03:46 AM
(#4)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
I'll leave this open, but here's my take. All good up to the river.

1. Shoving: I can't see many hands beating you folding to a shove, nor hands you are beating calling it. You have a lot of showdown value. So, I don't see any reason to turn your hand into a bluff in this spot.

2. Check-calling is safe. The villain has hands like AQ, KQ with one diamond in his range that the K on the river help. Since he seems fairly passive thus far, we can't count on him to bet the river with these hands though. It does give you a good shot at seeing the showdown since you can call a smallish river bet.

3. Bet-fold. If he is a rec, we can expect him to call with a fair amount of his range that we are beating which seems to make this a profitable line. I would bet about a third of the pot. No more than that if we intend to fold to a raise.

GL and have fun at the tables!

Roland GTX
 
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Fri Nov 29, 2013, 06:16 PM
(#5)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
Hey Carlos

This is a tricky spot. I don't think I want to bet 10$ and fold. I think $10 looks almost as strong as 18$ because you have triple barreled in this spot.

I think the play is to bet 18 and fold if they shove (which would be 17 more right?)

We have to assume they have no bluff range to shove over our triple barrel and that they never raise river with worse, which I think is probably true as well

Gareth

Last edited by GarethC23; Sat Nov 30, 2013 at 06:50 AM..
 
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Fri Nov 29, 2013, 09:40 PM
(#6)
CaRLoS_DZ87's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 184
BronzeStar
Hi gareth,

He has a shorter stack, so actually if i bet 18 i would have to fold to $9.38 raise. Does this change your bet sizing?
 
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Sat Nov 30, 2013, 06:51 AM
(#7)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
I think we should just shove versus this stack size actually, we have a good SPR to do it and a strong value hand
 
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Sat Nov 30, 2013, 09:35 AM
(#8)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Yep, it's not a fist pump shove but it's still a shove.
 
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Sat Nov 30, 2013, 12:45 PM
(#9)
CaRLoS_DZ87's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 184
BronzeStar
Glad I shoved then . Since I am here, I think you can guess what happened lol.
 

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