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AKo OTBTN zoom NL 10

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AKo OTBTN zoom NL 10 - Fri Nov 29, 2013, 07:06 AM
(#1)
Shichi-77's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 607
How would you play it? Is there a fold OTR?
How would you range him?

Hero (BTN): 111.2 BB
BB: 171.9 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 40.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)

Last edited by Shichi-77; Fri Nov 29, 2013 at 07:10 AM..
 
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Fri Nov 29, 2013, 07:28 AM
(#2)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
Interesting hand here.

With a pretty much unknown villain, Donking out OTT seems like a pretty strong line. I would certainly have 55, 99, K9+ in his preflop calling range against a button steal. I suppose QJ/QT is possible but it seems pretty marginal to float OOP with a gutshot and there's no guarantee he'll get paid for it, but people do make funny floats sometimes! It's difficult to see what villain is calling the flop with that means he turned a flush draw, maybe Ah5h but I doubt he would donk the turn with this.

I fear villain has 2 pair + or is pulling off some wierd bluff. I would also call the turn bet in position and see what hsppens on the river.

Now the river is an interesting card as K9 is now counterfeited but KT and QT just hit the jackpot. However the flush draw missed. However as I already said, flush draws aren't really that plausible. I think villain has likely made a boat here, either with 55, 99 or KT. He might play like this with K9 but that is the only hand I can think of that we are beating, so I would fold.
 
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Fri Nov 29, 2013, 07:38 AM
(#3)
Shichi-77's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 607
My thoughts were that "T" changed something . What did it change? It brought more draws and more stronger made hands than AK. Did you see KQ-KJ play with that line?

Last edited by Shichi-77; Fri Nov 29, 2013 at 07:45 AM..
 
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Fri Nov 29, 2013, 08:58 AM
(#4)
Prodigy237's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 336
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shichi-77 View Post
My thoughts were that "T" changed something . What did it change? It brought more draws and more stronger made hands than AK. Did you see KQ-KJ play with that line?
Hi Shichi,

I agree with you... When Villain leads out OTT it suggests either a made hand e.g. QJ or as a means of protection with 55, 99 or poss KT. Bet sizing OTR looks suspiciously like a value bet IMO & therefore I'm not too sure how often we're going to be ahead.

Without reads [... & 5 hands is too small sample to form a judgement either way] I think it is a fold OTR.

GL @ the tables

Tony

Last edited by Prodigy237; Fri Nov 29, 2013 at 09:01 AM.. Reason: Added
 
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Fri Nov 29, 2013, 10:11 AM
(#5)
kalahwang's Avatar
Since: Nov 2013
Posts: 135
with villain leading twice (OTT and OTR), hand looks really strong. could be KQ, KJ, KT, QT, QJ, 55, 99

I'll fold on the river
 
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Sat Nov 30, 2013, 06:05 AM
(#6)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Interesting spot indeed! Especially with that turn lead, some of you might already know it as “geo-donking”
I experimented with turn lead lines a few months back as a strategy to float OOP against aggressive cbets. And the general idea behind it was that villain won’t flop a hand 70% of the time and they would cbet atleast that same amount when they miss. So in a way to take a turn barrel away from them I would lead the turn myself. However that line would make more sense on turns that don’t make the board wet. I think villains turn donk bet here has no pure bluffs, question is what likely holdings can they have and are we getting a good price on our call against their range?
Q1. What does villain call with on such a dry flop?
TP: KQ, KJ, KT, K9s, K8s
MP: A9, Q9, J9, T9, 98
PP below TP: TT, 88, 77
Sets: 99, 55
Passively played gutshots: QJ, QT, JT, 87, 76
Possible A-high floats with BDFD: AJs, ATs
I think those hands should fit in their preflop call and flop decision.
When they lead the turn it seems that they have either improved and don’t want to give a free card or don’t want us to check behind or they feel threatened with the added wetness to the board or they have a semi-bluff opportunity.
Q2. What hands improve OTT?
KT, TT, QJ, T9, ATs, QT, JT
Q3. What hands feel threatened with the added wetness to the board?
99, 55
Q4. What hands have semi-bluffs?
AhJh, 8h7h, 7h6h

Our equity’s not looking so great anymore. Against {TT,99,55, AhJh, ATs, KT, QT, JT, QJ, T9, 8h7h, 7h6h} we have 37% equity OTT and we are always losing to a river bet even if we think they can do this with KQ/KJ we only have 24% equity and not the right odds to make the river call.
 
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Sat Nov 30, 2013, 09:31 AM
(#7)
Shichi-77's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 607
Thanks, Geo I folded, so I don't know what did he have. and I would add AA in his hand range saw something like that day ago.
 

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