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break even + VIP and FPP bonuses=Move up stakes?

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break even + VIP and FPP bonuses=Move up stakes? - Fri Nov 29, 2013, 02:10 PM
(#1)
Espada_Nu.4's Avatar
Since: May 2012
Posts: 148
I have been playing for a while now at the $1.50 level and I am more or less break even
If i gather the necessary VIP and FPP bonuses should I move up at the $3.50's?
I think that the difficulty is about the same, plus the rake is a little smaller, so i think I'll manage. Doing so, I'll earn VPPs faster
Should i do it, or not?
What do you guys think?
 
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Fri Nov 29, 2013, 04:30 PM
(#2)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
I have been playing poker for a few years now, but over the last few months this is the first time that I am taking is seriously and being disciplined about playing in the right way and I think my poker understanding is coming on leaps and bounds.

In my "former career", I took down a few big MTTs at the low stakes (usually up to $11 with some shots at bigger tourneys) with prizes of 4 figures. After one particularly big win (an $8.80 MTT with 3K+ runners for $3,600) - I thought I was the bees knees and that I had "graduated" as a poker player and that I belonged in the big time. I didn't really know about bankroll management and I started playing 100NL and 200NL 6Max, I entered the Sunday Million for a couple of months and when I started losing money, I didn't even consider that my skill level wasn't good enough. I just put it down to bad luck, people sucking out and thought that it was inevitable that my next huge payday would come.

Of course that payday didn't come because my poker skills were not that good.

While I stopped short of going broke, I essentially gave up the game just playing sporadically.

Now I've got more time to dedicate to the game, so I took out everything bar $20 and started from scratch, playing 2NL and $0.10 and $0.50 SNGs and MTTs.

Doing this has forced me to learn the necessary skills to beat each level one at a time which I believe makes me a much better poker player overall.

In short, if you can't beat the $1.50 SNGs, you won't beat the $3.50 SNGs and while you will be gaining more VPPs, your money will likely drop too fast to make the gain in VPPs worthwhile.

Having said that there's nothing wrong in taking shots at higher levels but only if your bankroll doesn't get harmed too much by your excursion. As long as you are willing to drop back down if you lose, you should be fine.

Sorry for the rambling story but I hope this advice is helpful!
 
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Fri Nov 29, 2013, 06:17 PM
(#3)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
Quote:
Originally Posted by spand42 View Post
In short, if you can't beat the $1.50 SNGs, you won't beat the $3.50 SNGs and while you will be gaining more VPPs, your money will likely drop too fast to make the gain in VPPs worthwhile.
Quoted for emphasis.

The value of VPPs will not make up for the bigger losses you sustain. Use sensible bankroll management and only move up if you are already beating the game, imo.


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Fri Nov 29, 2013, 07:16 PM
(#4)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
(Super-Moderator)
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The others are 100% correct. Until you can consistently beat the $1.50's WITHOUT the vpp bonuses, it's NOT time to move up.

John (JWK24)


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6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Fri Nov 29, 2013, 07:59 PM
(#5)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Espada_Nu.4 View Post
I have been playing for a while now at the $1.50 level and I am more or less break even
If i gather the necessary VIP and FPP bonuses should I move up at the $3.50's?
I think that the difficulty is about the same, plus the rake is a little smaller, so i think I'll manage. Doing so, I'll earn VPPs faster
Should i do it, or not?
What do you guys think?

Hey Espada

When you used to submit questions to HA in the cash section, the questions you posed were always so thoughtful and the spots so interesting. Was thinking that maybe you're just break-even with that one particular type of SNG that you happen to be playing right now? Because Before switching to cash, I gave all sorts of SNGs a try and was only able to make a go of one particular type ... out of like the 50-100 that are offered. The 50/50's went especially bad for me, with my complete lack of self-restraint

Anyways ... was just wondering what sorts of SNGs you've given a try - maybe a different one might yield different results for you?
 
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Definatly stick to the level your on. - Fri Jan 24, 2014, 12:31 PM
(#6)
mariboman's Avatar
Since: Jan 2014
Posts: 3
I'm currently beating 7$ sng with an roi about 20%. But this is a very small sample of about 450 sng. You have no idea what your expectation actually is until you reach 1000 sng. and this only starts to give you an indication. A better idea will be given at 3000.
One thing no one mentioned is how massive variance can be. you say your roughly breaking even but over what sample size? have you played 1000's of sit and gos. You could be a very profitable player just suffering from a bad patch of variance or conversely you could be a terrible player on a good side of variance.
Have a look on youtube at "examining variance with roi simulator". Its staggering how much variance can effect roi over even fairly large sample sizes. He runs a simulation of a person who has an roi of 9%. (obviously this is hypothetical as your actual expectation is impossible to determine) and runs sets of a thousand sit and go's. loads of these runs result in a loss.
So after 450 sit and gos i have turned my 25$ into 500$ and all i can really claim is im probably a winning player ( in that i probably have a positive expectation).
Another factor when moving up a level is ... Is your bankroll big enough. You should ideally have 50 buy ins for the level you are going to be able to play at. I should have a bank roll of $750 dollars to move to $15 sit and go's!!!!
So you should have a 175$ br to move up. If you feel you could play an extra table this is sometimes a better option as although you will pay more rake you will have lower variance.
 
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levels also play differntly and possibly require some adjustments to made to yr game - Fri Jan 24, 2014, 12:40 PM
(#7)
mariboman's Avatar
Since: Jan 2014
Posts: 3
sorry to ramble but the different levels also play very differently. I have had a go at some 15$ sng when I notice a lot of decent regs waiting at my normal level. the $15 definitely plays differently and some of my normal betting lines in certain spots are going to need to be adjusted/ scrapped. Although i do feel like I cant play my "A game" as 15$ is a lot for me psychologically as i don't have a gambling mentality and am only recently profitable. Conversely i have also had a go at some 3.50$ when i want to try and get use to playing more tables at once. Again this level plays very differently.
personally i think the jump to 15$ will be the biggest as i think this is when you can expect to meet pro grinders.
 

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