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Databases and 6-max win(loss) rates in the blinds

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Databases and 6-max win(loss) rates in the blinds - Mon Dec 02, 2013, 02:36 PM
(#1)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Hi, rather than hijacking another thread thought I'd ask here.

People talk numbers a lot and now I'm trying to make sense of database information, specifically my losses in the blinds.

Here is the dumb question. If I NEVER defend my blinds over say 1000 orbits on 2NL regular 6-max tables.

So 1000 x 0.02 = $20 and 1000 x 0.01 = $10 would our database software show:

Posn, Hnds, Win$, bb/100
BB, 1000, -20, -100
SB, 1000, -10, -50

I'm trying to understand my actual numbers. Maybe it's a fact that my losses are acceptable compared to my assumption above?

Does anyone ever successfully defend their blinds and make a profit in those spots?

Anyway here are my 2NL positional results on regular tables so a small sample of approximately 6K hands:

Posn, Hnds, Win$, bb/100
BB, 1031, -4.71, -22.84
SB, 1031, -2.52, -12.22
BTN, 1023, 4.13, 20.19
CO, 960, 6.44, 33.54
HJ, 958, 2.01, 10.49
UTG, 982, 7.09, 36.10

So are things looking reasonable recalling my earlier assumptions of worst expectation loss -$20 and -$10 in the blinds.

Thanks, I need to get some perspective on this subject.
 
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Mon Dec 02, 2013, 02:59 PM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
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Hey Forrest!

That's actually a good question and one I've never looked into (granted all mine are PM since I'm in the US).

Here are my numbers out of the blinds and over almost 9k hands....

BB, 1481 hands, -66.85BB/100... wow, need to look into and fix this one!
SB, 1476 hands, +65.99BB/100

For me, the BB is the only position at the table that I'm losing money at and it's 97BB/100 worse than my next lowest (MP).

John (JWK24)


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Mon Dec 02, 2013, 03:07 PM
(#3)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Hey Forrest,

When you say 1,000 orbits, don't forget that it's 6,000 hands total. I lost a total of 22k in the blinds, but won 62k in the other positions, so in all honesty, I don't really try and protect my blinds with garbage.

Here are mine over 664k hands:

Posn, 114k Hands, bb/100
BB, -31.38
SB, -10.21
BTN, +33.99
CO, +24.02
HJ, +23.50
UTG, +21.31
 
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Mon Dec 02, 2013, 03:14 PM
(#4)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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I agree with you there Trap! I'm definitely not defending my blinds with trash. If I don't have a hand, I'm mucking.

John (JWK24)


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6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Mon Dec 02, 2013, 05:37 PM
(#5)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Hey thanks guys,

John you seem to have your sb defence sorted, those 3-bet against steals are getting respect. Sand seeing a $22,000 loss in the blinds is mind blowing and I agree not defending with rubbish.

I was looking at my Zoom 6-max results and same thing more hands and greater losses in the blinds. Can we do a Statistical Sleuth or Database Doctor with some of the other numbers?

So I took a screen shot and think the column headings should be universal across other database products. Just in case, PFF3 is pre flop fold to 3-bet and PFF4 is pre flop fold to 4-bet. Just thinking there may be a leak in this area?


Right click for full size image.

Thanks

Last edited by ForrestFive; Mon Dec 02, 2013 at 05:39 PM..
 
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Mon Dec 02, 2013, 06:35 PM
(#6)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
The vast majority of players lose money in the blinds. Over a smallish (29k) sample of 6-max 2NL, I'm profitable in the SB and losing 20bb/100 in the BB, which is a lot better than I'd do if I folded all the time. Your aim in those positions should be to mitigate your losses. One way to regain those lost blinds is, of course, by stealing other people's. Your low-ish PFR on the button and in the SB indicates you're probably missing quite a few stealing/re-stealing opportunities.

Your overall numbers look pretty solid, but the PFF3 column is a little concerning. If that is indeed the same stat as HEM's "fold to 3-bet", then you're probably not folding to 3-bets often enough. I'm folding to 3-bets almost 60% of the time. If you can run some filters and replay some hands, you might find that you are calling 3-bets OOP a bit too often. This is one of the most common and expensive leaks in poker, because playing bloated pots, out of position without the initiative is very -EV. Try and be more positionally aware: tight early, but loose late.



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Mon Dec 02, 2013, 07:37 PM
(#7)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
My blind stats over 50K hands (10NL 6Max) with an overall winrate of +1.38 BB/100

SB: -28.81 BB/100
BB: -40.62 BB/100
EP: +10.79 BB/100
MP: +12.47 BB/100
CO: +17.32 BB/100
BUT: +36.13 BB/100
 
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Mon Dec 02, 2013, 08:51 PM
(#8)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Hi guys,

Thanks Arty for your review and spand for contributing your stats. I can see a logical increase in win rates from ep/utg to lp/btn and mine seem somewhat random.

Looking at PFR from the sb only. Can that only occur when it folds around to us or maybe to the btn who limps? Thinking this may be a rare circumstance, 10.8% / 1031 hands (reg) and 9.8% / 2857 hands (zoom) hence the small numbers.

When I get some resistance (btn limp 3-bets?) I am only folding 14.3% (reg) and 25% (zoom). So this should be far bigger percentage / more often? However I am putting in a 4-bet 50% (reg) and 75% (zoom) in these circumstances.

So probably getting in a mess folding to a shove then and losing money in this situation? With no way of knowing how often this has happened overall or I've taken no action and folded.

Probably this requires looking at other numbers CARpre (called a raise pre flop) and looking at % differences between data columns.

Wow this is quite a difficult subject.

Thanks for your help guys.

Last edited by ForrestFive; Mon Dec 02, 2013 at 08:54 PM..
 
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Mon Dec 02, 2013, 10:40 PM
(#9)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
The PFR % in the SB (or any seat) refers to any opportunity to raise. Steal possibilities occur less often. For example, with my numbers, I'm raising in the SB 16.9% of the time overall, but when it's folded to me in that position, my steal percentage is 45.9%. (Not many people are comfortable raising 46% of hands when they will be OOP if the big blind calls, but the fact that the BB is folding over 60% of the time, makes this play profitable).

If you raise and get 3-bet in any position, villain is saying "I think I have the best hand" (unless he's restealing light, which doesn't happen a lot at 2NL). You should generally give him credit and fold most of the time, especially with hands like AJ, KQ etc, because you'll miss the flop 70% of the time and have to fold to a c-bet, or you'll make top pair and lose your stack when you're out-kicked. Clearly, it's a mistake to pay 9bb to see a flop if you're going to fold most of the time. Just give up your 3bb that you opened with and move on to the next hand. In short, be the first player to raise, but don't stick around if villain seizes the initiative with a re-raise. (Except when you have QQ+/AK, in which case 4-betting is standard).
I wrote more on what to do when you get 3-bet in this blog about full ring games, but the general advice is FOLD!
Calling 3-bets OOP is one of the most common leaks at microstakes, but it's an easy one to fix. Just stop calling 3-bets! Your bankroll will be very grateful if you do.
If you decide to 4-bet, then you should be snap-calling a 5-bet shove. If you're not stacking off, then don't 3-bet/4-bet in the first place.


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Tue Dec 03, 2013, 12:01 AM
(#10)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Arty, since your so good with stats, could you pull out only the stats when you are attempting to steal. In other words, stats on about 5,442 hands, which are the hands you attempted to steal. It would also be nice to see all stakes, not just 2NL since it pretty much doesn't show a true picture. If I was to show my numbers at 2NL, you would only see green numbers ...LOL
 
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Tue Dec 03, 2013, 03:02 AM
(#11)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
5442 is not the correct number of hands, because steal attempts can only be made if no one has opened the pot when the action reaches me. Fortunately, HEM2 has a one-click filter called "Steal" that provides the stats I think you were hoping to see.

When I raise in a stealing situation, I win 72% of the time, at a rate of 127bb/100. More than half of my winnings over the sample featured in the first screengrab came from "steals".



Just to emphasise the value of stealing, I remind you that I am opening 46% of hands in the small blind. That's a whole lot of trash. That "whole load of trash" is winning the pot almost 80% of the time. If you can't understand how stealing is +EV, I don't know what else to say. The numbers don't lie.


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Tue Dec 03, 2013, 03:56 AM
(#12)
Praydk's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 504
my 2nl zoom steal filtered stats
 
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Tue Dec 03, 2013, 11:18 AM
(#13)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Never said stealing wasn't +EV, please don't start lying

I can see by your numbers that you've got the stealing working for you at 2NL, but let me know when you get to 16NL and up (if you ever get there) if those numbers will stand. I looked at my 2NL numbers (very small sample 257 hands average) and here are some numbers:
Attempt Steal = 23.73 vs your 30.2
Success = 62.51 vs your 47.9
Hands won = 79.6 vs your 72.0
BB/100 = 176.42 vs your 127.0

This just shows that by stealing 20% less than you do (being less aggressive), I achieve better results, I basically spew less by playing less trash. I would presume these numbers would go down as you go up in stakes, so here are my stats for the last 2 years on 600k hands.




As you can see, my numbers have dropped just a bit except for the BB/100, which is due to higher stakes

Also looking at the numbers, you won $52.65 from stealing out of a total win of $94.61 for 56% and my winning from stealing is 52%

Conclusion is that we have about the same results, but I steal 20% less than you do. All I'm saying is that new players learning how to play poker shouldn't focus on stealing with garbage, they should learn to play first and become winning players (+0.1 BB/100) and then increase their stealing.
 
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Tue Dec 03, 2013, 04:47 PM
(#14)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
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Here's one thing to keep in mind about steals. If the opp will fold 60% of the time to a standard raise, I only need a hand with 30% equity in order to steal... basically any 2 live cards. If I can get 60+% folds, then it will be +EV even on the times where I get called.

One key to making steals is to find spots where the opp will fold a high % of the time and notes on how many hands the opp is playing is a key to it (whether they are hand notes or from a HUD). If I know the opp will fold this much, I've got free reign to play 2 wet napkins at them.

I'd assume that the higher in games you go, the more knowledgeable the opps are and should then know this type of info and they can counteract it very easily.. by calling more often.

John (JWK24)


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Wed Dec 04, 2013, 11:53 AM
(#15)
MrFlopes's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 152
Hii, Sandtrap. Nice results. Coould you post some more stats, like 3bet, fildl to 3bet, cbet? Or is it asking too much? Woould love to see those kind of stats on such a great sample size.
 
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Wed Dec 04, 2013, 12:18 PM
(#16)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrFlopes View Post
Hii, Sandtrap. Nice results. Coould you post some more stats, like 3bet, fildl to 3bet, cbet? Or is it asking too much? Woould love to see those kind of stats on such a great sample size.
Thanks, here you go

3bet, = 6.49
fildl to 3bet, = 69.13
cbet = 49.89

Remember, this is all stakes in last 2 years (2NL to 500NL)
Those numbers vary depending on the stake
 
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Wed Dec 04, 2013, 12:31 PM
(#17)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
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Trap,

Question for you on the c-bets. Do you find that when you move up in stakes that you c-bet more or less?

My other two numbers are close to yours (3-bet of 5% and fold to 3-bet of 65%) but my c-bet's at 69%. Was thinking mine may be higher because I'm c-betting more marginal made hands (2nd and 3rd pair) due to having more calling stations that will pay me off. That sound reasonable to you? Where it may go down as the field quality gets better.

John (JW24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Wed Dec 04, 2013, 12:37 PM
(#18)
MrFlopes's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 152
Thanks, Sand. Nice to see you tend on the tight side and get good results. No need to play too loose.
 
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Wed Dec 04, 2013, 01:28 PM
(#19)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
Trap,

Question for you on the c-bets. Do you find that when you move up in stakes that you c-bet more or less?

My other two numbers are close to yours (3-bet of 5% and fold to 3-bet of 65%) but my c-bet's at 69%. Was thinking mine may be higher because I'm c-betting more marginal made hands (2nd and 3rd pair) due to having more calling stations that will pay me off. That sound reasonable to you? Where it may go down as the field quality gets better.

John (JW24)
Concerning my c-bet, I just went over all the different stakes I played over 2 years with over 10,000 hands and to my surprise, it varies between 49.28 and 50.52. So I would say no it doesn't change with the stake increase. .....at least for me

But I did notice that I've improved my c-bet over the year by a full 2% ...... lol
Same applies for my 3-bet, it as increased by 1.5%

"I'm c-betting more marginal made hands (2nd and 3rd pair)" Could be, as I barely do unless I got lots of info on the players
 
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Wed Dec 04, 2013, 01:34 PM
(#20)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrFlopes View Post
Thanks, Sand. Nice to see you tend on the tight side and get good results. No need to play too loose.
I do believe that playing tight (not always as it's note dependent) is ok as there's no need to spew money. Playing loose will result in more volatility, downswings or as we know it, "Variance" which in turn could translate in "Tilt".
 

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