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After 30K hands 6-max 2NL running above EV is that the luck factor?

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After 30K hands 6-max 2NL running above EV is that the luck factor? - Fri Dec 06, 2013, 01:02 AM
(#1)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Hi,

This question is about All-in EV and what it means. Used a database to give me a graph.

Now thinking when people say EV balances itself out over a large sample size was about 15 bucks of my profit just luck?

I'm using Profit - EV lines: 46.23 - 29.43 so at about 18K hands I sucked out with the worst hands and a few accumulated later is keeping me above EV.

It was a big effort to get to this 30K milestone. So think I'll book this as a win accept the overlay and ignore the red line.

 
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Fri Dec 06, 2013, 01:26 AM
(#2)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,363
The EV line represents how much you would have have won if you'd won your equity share in pots that were all in (and called) before the river, so it's a measure of how lucky you are in those situations. e.g. if you sucked out a few times, or you never lost to suckouts when you got it in good, you'd be running above EV. There's nothing you can do to control how lucky you are in all in situations, so it's not worth worrying about. I'm sure your rungood is well within the standard deviation expected over this sample. I know several people who have run a bit better, and a lot of players that have run much worse. Just enjoy it while it lasts. If you're one of the lucky people, you'll remain above EV for your entire "career".


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Fri Dec 06, 2013, 08:24 PM
(#3)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Thanks Arty,

LOL not so much a career probably a lifetime clawing back the losses from higher micros. It takes so long playing on 2 or 3 regular tables. Zoom seems to cause me so many problems.

Funnily enough I'm running below EV at other stakes and down over 10 buy-ins at 5NL and then it just gets worse.

So probably staying at 2NL until I die.
 
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Sun Dec 08, 2013, 07:33 PM
(#4)
DemzMahChipz's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 67
Actually, I was just about to post a thread about this myself, lol. From what I understand, the profit line and EV line, given a large enough sample of hands should eventually converge and run reasonably close together. Myself, I have something like 300,000 tracked hands with profits running consistently above EV, with a seemingly ever-widening gap between the two. I'm wondering if one: anyone else has seen this trend with their own play, or does the EV line generally come together with the green line for most, and two: is this potentially an indicator of some specific play-style or maybe even a leak in my game.

I know the EV line isn't a perfect indicator for 'luck', take this example: You raise AA and are called by a short stack with a 40BB stack holding JJ, preflop 3 of his 40 BBs goes in the pot behind. Flop comes blank>blank>blank and you cbet 7 BB into a 10 BB pot (say we had one more caller pre that folds now). Shorty now has 30 BBs left in their stack and turn comes blank again. Pot is 24 BBs and draw heavy so you try to end it there by putting him all in but bet 29 BBs instead of his full 30. River comes a J and you put in the last BB (obviously). Because you put in that last BB with a 0% chance at winning the hand, the EV line won't show any variance for that hand, even though 97.5% of the money went in while you were ahead.

Same situation, but this time all but 1 of his BBs goes in preflop, and the flop comes J>blank>blank. Obviously you're never folding there, so you get the 1 remaining BB in on the flop, and turn or river your A. The EV line will show that you ran way above EV on that hand even though you were way ahead when the vast majority of the money went in.

Here's my graph anyway:

 
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Mon Dec 09, 2013, 07:21 AM
(#5)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,363
Quote:
Originally Posted by DemzMahChipz View Post
From what I understand, the profit line and EV line, given a large enough sample of hands should eventually converge and run reasonably close together.
There is a common misconception about this. The $EV and $Net would only ever be equal if you played an infinite number of hands, starting from zero. Even ten million hands isn't close to "infinity". The distance between the lines on the graph will usually become closer as the sample size increases, but the closeness of the lines depicts the relative difference. i.e. You might be running at 150% of EV over 100k hands, and 140% of EV over 200k hands, so the lines on the graph might get closer, even though you ran above EV for both halves of the sample. In absolute terms, it's very possible for the "distance" between the lines to increase. e.g. You could be 30 BI above EV for 100k, and 50 BI above for the next 100k, making 80 BI above EV in total. It's actually quite amazing just how far above (or below) EV you can be over a given sample size, just based on random luck. Someone that has the skill-set to win at 5bb/100 might actually win at a rate of 15bb/100 over a 100k sample, but there's also a chance that they will lose money over that period.

Something that many people fail to understand is that your expected EV for the future is to be neutral, but if you're already 30 buyins above EV today, then it's expected that you'll still be 30 buy-ins above EV in a million hands' time, since you're not expected to start being less lucky just because you were lucky in the past.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DemzMahChipz View Post
]I'm wondering if one: anyone else has seen this trend with their own play, or does the EV line generally come together with the green line for most, and two: is this potentially an indicator of some specific play-style or maybe even a leak in my game.
Roughly half of players run above EV, and half run below EV, with most running pretty close to average. I'm one of the unlucky people that's run below EV on every site I've played. There's nothing I can do to change my luck, so I try not to get too upset about it, although I'm quite envious that some people have extended rungood. The lines on the graph tell you precisely NOTHING about your style of play, so they don't indicate any leaks. If you're running above EV, it might mean you have a knack for sucking out, or it might mean that you lose to fewer suckouts than expected. But you can't control what the RNG does once all the money is in the middle, so there's no point agonising over it. If you were consistently open shoving complete trash, you'd likely lose a lot of money, but you could still be above or below EV, based on how often you get lucky.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DemzMahChipz View Post
]... you try to end it there by putting him all in but bet 29 BBs instead of his full 30. River comes a J and you put in the last BB (obviously). Because you put in that last BB with a 0% chance at winning the hand, the EV line won't show any variance for that hand, even though 97.5% of the money went in while you were ahead.
River bets have no impact on the EV line. This is one reason why the EV line isn't a particularly good indicator of your overall luck. There is a lot of "hidden variance" in poker. e.g. Your tracker can't account for bad luck like being card dead, or missing every flop, or all the times your aces got a walk in the blinds. In tournament poker, all ins happen more freqently than in cash games, so "all in luck" in the short run tends to have a greater impact on your results. As anyone who plays hyperturbos will tell you, the variance in those games is completely sick, and you can easily run 50 BI above or below EV in a pretty small sample, so you need to play a ton of games to get an idea of your "true" ROI. In cash games, however, you're unlikely to play enough all in hands for the variance to "even out".


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Mon Dec 09, 2013, 07:44 AM
(#6)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
The 'hidden variance' is part of the reason that EV lines are fairly useless. It doesn't take account of situations where your opponent flops a straight and you turn or river a flush or full house when the majority of money is in and you often have to bet or call off.

From watching Felix's videos on the grinding it up series I got used to having it turned off on my graph. I've had it on again since I got my new PC but I will turn it off again tonight I think. It proves relatively little.
 
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Tue Dec 10, 2013, 02:34 AM
(#7)
nhynyx's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 11
Understanding EV, evaluating your own play, and being able to put BOTH into context is very important. While I will agree and most will (I think), that EV isn't EVERYTHING, it certainly is important to understand if you want to improve as a player.

You have to be able to incorporate EV into your assessment of your play for things to make sense. You can lose while making few mistakes. You can win while making many. If you never looked at EV lines, and were winning, but WAY above EV, and were actually a losing player, would that be good to ignore? It's pretty easy to run good and/or suck out over large samples. It's equally as easy to run bad and lose while playing well over large samples.

I use to be a huge losing weak tight reg over a large sample. Now I'm a decent TAG and slight winner over a large sample. I'm not the best 50nl reg, but GOD KNOWS I'm not the worst. I know what bad graphs look like. I know what bad EV lines look like. I use to have them.

You can play well and lose 11 BI's. You can play poorly and win 15. There are many different situations that can occur that you have to be able to honestly evaluate in order to understand where your game is at. Focusing on the decision making is much more important than focusing on the results. EV helps with this, if you fully understand it.

For exp'd winning players who are very skilled, EV is less important, but for players who are still learning the game and growing, I think it can't be ignored and doing so is a big mistake.

Think of it this way. If you played 500k hands, and only looked at bb/100, and saw that your winrate was 1.26 bb/100, what would you think? Seriously, think about that for a second.

If you then looked at your EV bb/100, and saw your ACTUAL win rate was -0.75 bb/100, now what would you think of your game?

Still think it's useless?

@Forrest - Small sample, but your lines are pretty proportionate and heading in the same direction. You're running well but things look ok.

@demz - Same for you, but a much larger, more useful sample size. Running very well indeed.

And as far as "hidden" variance goes, this is where evaluating your play and your sessions comes in, and is very, very important. When you can feel good about losing 11 BI's when EV said you were supposed to lose 9, but you know you played well, and get mad when you win 6 BI's, when EV said you were only supposed to win 1, and you know you played bad, you're in a good place.
 
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Tue Dec 10, 2013, 02:47 AM
(#8)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
I did say they were 'fairly' useless and not totally useless, and there is a difference, albeit subtle.

I have looked at EV lines and actually included it in one of my blogs last night but I just don't see the need for people to become obsessed about it.
 

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