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Opinions on overbetting the flop to induce folds

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Opinions on overbetting the flop to induce folds - Sat Dec 07, 2013, 10:30 AM
(#1)
IBNash's Avatar
Since: Oct 2013
Posts: 177
 
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Sat Dec 07, 2013, 12:51 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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Hi IBNash!

With ATo from the cutoff and three limps in front of me, I'm going to make a standard raise here. I have a hand with potential that plays much better with less opps, so I'm going to raise to 2.5BB+1BB for each limper (5500). A great example of why I want to raise is.. what do I do if an A hits the flop. Am I ahead (where I want to bet) or am I behind (where I want to fold).. I'll have no clue where I'm at if I limp.

I flop TPTK and I get an abnormally small bet from an opp. I definitely need to raise here, in order to price out the draws. With 4 or more opps in the hand, I will make a standard raise, which is a pot-sized raise to 10900.

I do NOT want to overbet and here are the reasons why...

1) Betting more than standard pot-commits me, so if I bet more, I need to shove and I do not want to shove and put my tourney life on the line with a very marginal hand in a multi-way pot. If I can't fold, which is what happens when I'm pot-committed, then I have two plays for the situation where the bet will pot-commit me (shove or fold).

2) Overbetting here is a great example of value-owning myself. I'll cause all of the worse hands to fold and I'll only get called by something better... the exact opposite of what I want to happen. I want the worse hands to call and pay me off.

3) By overbetting, I allow the opps to play the hand perfectly. If they beat me, they call. If not, they fold.

Playing against players that do not make standard bets and especially ones that make huge overbets makes playing the game easy for me. Patience and let them double you when you catch a hand. They may win a hand or two by doing this, but they will never be winning players long-term because they will continually throw away chips to players with better hands.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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Sun Dec 08, 2013, 06:00 AM
(#3)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,324
Overbetting with TPTK is far from optimal. When you have a hand with value, then you should be trying to gain chips. You do that by making value-bets: bets that will be called by worse hands. Don't valueown yourself.

If you want to make money from poker, then you need to understand the fundamental reasons for betting.
1. For value, to get calls from worse hands.
2. As a bluff, to make better hands fold.

If you have TPTK, a better hand is never folding, but many worse hands can call, so you're betting for value, hoping to get called by worse hands and draws. Trying to make villains fold worse hands is completely illogical.


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Tue Dec 10, 2013, 01:55 PM
(#4)
IBNash's Avatar
Since: Oct 2013
Posts: 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
Trying to make villains fold worse hands is completely illogical.
I wasn't, I felt nobody was slow playing a set, and overbet to represent top set. Going by the last ~30 hands I felt villains were limping with any Kx/Qx/Jx and hoped to make them fold instead of calling bets with higher broadways on the T/R.
I knew if I was called I was behind but I had the chips and took a shot.
 
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Tue Dec 10, 2013, 02:15 PM
(#5)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,324
I'm completely confused by your thought process here.

1. Why are you trying to represent a set? You have TPTK. That's a good hand. There is no need to turn it into a bluff, particularly as better hands are never folding. "Repping top set" is a crazy idea, because no one on earth is folding bottom set, whatever you think you're repping. In addition, overbetting with top set would usually be a mistake. If you really had top set, you should make a bet that will get called by worse pairs and random floats, since you have the nuts. When you have the nuts, you don't want people to fold!

2. Kx, Qx and Jx are worse hands than AT on that Txx flop. Why do you want them to fold? If I have TPTK, I want hands like KJ to call, because I make money from villains chasing 6-outers.


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Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Tue Dec 10, 2013 at 02:17 PM..
 
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Tue Dec 10, 2013, 02:58 PM
(#6)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
Trying to make villains fold worse hands is completely illogical.
LOL.... illogical??? If they all fold he takes the pot, more chips for him and he's not stuck with a decision on the turn or river if J, Q or K show up. (and even more possibilities)

Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
2. Why do you want them to fold? If I have TPTK, I want hands like KJ to call, because I make money from villains chasing 6-outers.
And you lose money to
There's more than 6 outers
Anybody holding a 3, 7, j, Q, K or even flush and straight possibilities that's 34 outers with 5 other players involved, the odds of one player holding one of these possibilities are very high.
3x - 2 outs
7x - 2 outs
Jx - 3 outs
Qx - 3 outs
Kx - 3 outs
Straight - 12 outs (with 68,69,89,8J,9J)
Flush - 9 outs

Here I would bet $13,800
If there was one player in the pot and less cards that could beat me on the turn and river, than I would bet $8,900

It's funny how some people contradict themselves. They're happy stealing the blind (1BB) but not satisfied with 8BB in this case...lol

What IBNash didn't mention is that it's a freeroll, so I would of went all in

There's NO such thing as illogical or standard play
 
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Tue Dec 10, 2013, 03:39 PM
(#7)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,487
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Hey all,

We certainly don't want to value own ourselves, I agree in general with what Arty's saying.

That being said, I'm in the overbet camp with Trap on this particular hand, and would actually prefer shoving here. Being that it's a limped pot, unless someone is slow playing bottom or middle set (I'm assuming btw that anyone, including us, probably raise TT preflop so don't really track with the repping top set thought personally) I expect us to have the best hand right now. If we raise to 10.9K or 13.8 or anything in that range, it's half (or more) of the effective stacks, so we really don't want to fold after that. I see no great reason to leave ourselves 7-10K effective behind, as there are so many turn cards that are confusing.... If V1 calls our raise, and then shoves the Kc on the turn, well no reason to open ourselves up to this scenario where we might get lost. And lastly, I do not think this shove value owns us either... We will get called off by KT/QT, maybe JT, and any number of draws. And if everyone folds to a shove, on a board were there are a lot of unfriendly run outs in a pot that's already a decent size, that's not a bad thing imo.


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Mon Dec 16, 2013, 11:32 PM
(#8)
IBNash's Avatar
Since: Oct 2013
Posts: 177
Arty, John, first thing I pondered was if I might be value owning myself, thanks to having it drilled in by you. This was very situational, and it seemed like it might get Kx/Qx/Jx to fold who were my biggest concern. In this freeroll, I expect to be called by KT 100% of the time and then the other hands listed above which may not hit the T/R.
I do not just barrel on the FTR anymore unless it is for value, for myself. I've learnt some things, I may seldom apply them.

Good to know shoving here works too, and it looks stronger (applies more pressure) than the overbet. If you noticed, the bet amount was enough to cover even the largest stack after me, most of whom had similar sized stacks. It looks like a bloody strong bet, and if I was opps, I wouldn't continue unless I had something like top set.


Thank you all for the feedback.
 

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