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4hr session goes wrong again

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4hr session goes wrong again - Sun Dec 08, 2013, 01:37 PM
(#1)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485


So i played for 4hrs on and off 10mins here and there made the best part of 5 stacks for it to drop to $2 profit for the day.

I think i played pretty solid all the way through to get my top set rivered by a flush he never even got odds to call with because he was near enough all in on the turn.

I shoved for 50bb with AA vs a fish i know will not fold when he raises and he rivers two pair.

Then i get QQ all in on the flop vs another fish with KJo who rivers two pair.

Finally i managed to get QQ in vs an aggro monkey who flips over KK, which i dont mind but still this all happened so fast in like 300 hands after i just earnt 4 stacks over 1700 odd hands.

I wouldnt mind but its happened like 4 times in a row now so im making like $2 here and there and my bankroll is just not growing fast enough i should be playing 10nl all ready.

Is anyone getting these sort of results at 5nl its well annoying its not like im losing because im tilting either its just bad luck all the time.
 
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Sun Dec 08, 2013, 04:11 PM
(#2)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
Been going through a bit of a rough time at 10NL recently so I do sympathise with how you are feeling. I would just watch statements like 'i should be playing 10nl all ready' as it sounds like you feel a sense of entitlement to be moving up levels.

While your play may well justify higher levels you have to respect variance.

I want to move up to 25NL but I am just not there yet.
 
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Sun Dec 08, 2013, 04:17 PM
(#3)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
I agree with bhoi
I'm bankrolled for 500NL and I'm still at 100NL
 
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Thu Dec 12, 2013, 03:51 PM
(#4)
mute07's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 75
Does it happen to anyone? It did to me 2 nights in a row a couple of days ago... I'm trying to move up nice and slow but it's pretty damn hard. Lost 5 buyins in 2 different sessions on 5NL one after another and I had to move back to 2NL to get back on my feet. Just keep it up, you'll get there soon enough. Gl on the tables!
 
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Fri Dec 13, 2013, 05:01 PM
(#5)
MarcosoSVK's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 18
BronzeStar
Been there, done that. Just had a 2 hours session on 2NL tables. 1 table for 1 and half an hour and for the last half an hour I added the second table. Basically for the whole time I was just getting back what I lost in the start of this session. After the start I was like $3 down and in the end of the session I finally finished with $0,01 up! But I think the variance plays a big role and there's simply nothing to do with it, if we still focus and play our A-game.
 
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Sat Dec 14, 2013, 12:53 PM
(#6)
airahaznila's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 11


2k hands is nothing, I've been on a breaking even stretch for almost 30k hands at 5nl.
 
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Sat Dec 14, 2013, 02:14 PM
(#7)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Quote:
Originally Posted by airahaznila View Post


2k hands is nothing, I've been on a breaking even stretch for almost 30k hands at 5nl.
Yh but i was showing 1 session out of a ton of sessions that went exactly the same or i just went on cooler after cooler losing money, where at 10nl im winning at 11bb/100 over 12k hands so far, im running so bad at 5nl right now its ridiculous i was earning more money at 2nl without a clue as to what i was doing where now im a much better player and losing money at 5nl over a good sample size.

For some reason im running with a 15 vpip also and i cant understand it because i ran 14 at 2nl when i was a nit that opened strong hands only in all seats, im opening close to 50% on the BU and pretty wide in CO and SB also even my UTG range is nearly as wide as my over all vpip.

I might be losing a fair bit of money c betting to much and barreling and not getting folds often enough as those small pots lost do add up, but when im actually winning hands instead of getting coolered all day long my strategy seems to work really well and i seem to break even when i dont get hands and im not putting into much money when im behind and win around 10bb/100 or more when im actually getting hands.

I just cant seem to work out whats going on heres my graph where ive made a cbet.



Dont know if this actually proves my cbetting stratgey is working because it dont include when ive bet the turn or river but i just looked and the graphs looks exactly the same when i bet the turn or river apart from my blue line goes up alot more on the turn and it goes in a straight line upwards on the river graph.

Maybe someone who knows how to use pt4 better than me could tell me how to work out if im blowing money in small pots with air, im only cbetting 65% of the time and barreling the turn 50% and if im losing any money its either from cbetting, messing around with a strategy for playing out of the blinds or its just variance. Then again im not playing small suited connectors profitably either im down 6 stacks and can see at least 2 full stack coolers where ive had the nutz and been rivered and 1 spew on a paired flop where i called and turned my flush.

The rest were small pots where i called with odds to do so when i was sure im getting a stack and missed and theres a couple of spots ive bet and barreled my draws and missed as well.
 
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Sat Dec 14, 2013, 05:20 PM
(#8)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,359
Quote:
Originally Posted by mike2198 View Post
Dont know if this actually proves my cbetting stratgey is working
Well it's clearly very profitable overall to be c-betting, as all your lines are above zero.

I ran the same filter on a similar sample size of my own hands, and the graph is a somewhat similar, although I have the blueline higher than the red. This is probably more to do with the fact that I play on regular tables against stationy villains, whereas you're playing on Zoom, I believe, where villains are folding more often.

To try and find post-flop leaks, you should maybe set up a filter for "c-bet flop", "saw showdown" and "lost hand" if you can do that. If you take a look at what villains showed up with, you might find that they held hands that would have folded to a second or third barrel (which you didn't make). Alternatively, you might have been firing turn barrels when villains were never folding, because their range was strong. That's just a starting point. I don't know how filters work in PT (I use HEM), but if you spend a lot of time setting up them to show common situations, you should be able to detect some trends in your play.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Sat Dec 14, 2013, 05:55 PM
(#9)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Cheers Arty il have a play around with it and see what i can find .

Edit just filtered what you said Arty and for flop cbet when lost hand i lost 420, when i cbet the turn and lost at showdown im down 200 and when ive cbet the river and lost the hand im down 20.

What does this mean? When i looked at 420 lost i was like how is that even possible, it says its over 235 hands ive played where i cbet the flop and lost at showdown so how is that even possible for me to lose $420.

I then compared my winnings when i cbet flop turn or river and it went to showdown and all my winnings are higher than when ive actually lost at showdown.

Last edited by mike2198; Sun Dec 15, 2013 at 07:05 AM..
 
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Sun Dec 15, 2013, 01:08 PM
(#10)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,359
I was scratching my head a bit here, as the numbers seemed odd, so ran some filters on my own database.
I was quite surprised at how much I lost when I c-bet the flop and lost at showdown. All those bets certainly add up!
For c-bet flop, lost at showdown, I'm down about $250. But c-bet flop, won at showdown, I'm up about $450. I would guess this is fairly standard. To win big pots on the river, you have to put some money in the pot on the early streets (those bets are like wagers in any gambling game), but you obviously won't win every time you "gamble" with a c-bet. You just have to make sure you're making +EV bets in the long term. C-betting is clearly +EV, provided you're still capable of folding if you get raised or bet into later in the hand.

The last thing you said is the most important thing. Provided you win more than you lose at showdown, your blueline will be positive and will (usually) make up for a negative redline. The key thing is to minimise your showdown losses (usually by bet-folding the river, or not betting or calling at all) when you have the worst hand, and maximising your profit at showdown when you have the best hand.

It seems that when you've barrelled the turn, you're not losing so often (or so much money!) at showdown. This is probably mainly because you usually have a strong hand when you fire the second barrel. My filters produce similar results.
It would be much more worrying if your turn c-bets were leading to bigger losses, since that would indicate you were probably barrelling too often, and/or paying off a villains when they bink the river in big pots.
Check your graph for "turn c-bet made" (without setting a showdown filter). I think your blue line should usually be a fair bit higher than the redline in that example. If it's not, then your turn and river play should be looked at more closely.

I doubt you have any obvious leak with regard to turn barrels (something like 50% for turn c-bet should be fine). There's possibly something more subtle happening. Other filters you can add (in addition to c-bet flop) are "Turn action = call" and "River action = call". You might be break-even when you do that, or you might actually be losing. If it's the latter, then you need to stop paying off villain's when you get rivered.

I'm in a mad dash at the moment, but I'd be happy to compare stats and graphs via PM or skype next time I have some spare time.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Sun Dec 15, 2013, 01:51 PM
(#11)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Cool il message you later.
 

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