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Fifty50 $1.5

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Fifty50 $1.5 - Sun Dec 08, 2013, 06:14 PM
(#1)
ggervacio's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 341
Im not sure if I am suppose to call this? Opponent's VPIP/PFR 6/7
 
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Sun Dec 08, 2013, 07:27 PM
(#2)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
I can see why you folded, an all-in raise from Early Position looks quite scary and your opponent might be a tight player.

However AQ is an extremely strong hand. You only have 6 Big Blinds and are in desperate need of some more chips in order to prolong your life in the tournament. It is unlikely you will get as strong a hand as this while you still have a decent amount of chips.

The other issue you have to consider is the stack size of your opponent. He has even fewer chips than you, about a 5 Big Blind stack. He is also desperate to double up or steal the blinds uncontested.

Villain is likely to be going on all in with any pocket pair, maybe any Ace, some broadway hands e.g. KQ/KJ.

Your AQ is favourite against most of his likely holdings, so you should call his bet and you are very likely to win.
 
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Sun Dec 08, 2013, 08:16 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,787
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Hi ggervacio!

My first instinct here was to snap-call, but to be sure I went to an ICM calculator. When I put in the stacks and the opp's shove, I get a call range of 16% (44+, A3s+, A8o+, KTs+, KJo+).

AQo is well within this range, so I'm calling.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Mon Dec 09, 2013, 04:29 AM
(#4)
ggervacio's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 341
It would have been an easy call for me too had I not been reviewing my bubble play strategy. Anyway I also ran this in pokerstove. I got 36% for the pot odds and my AQo vs 6% VPIP or 7% PFR. It still gives me 40% equity, the margin is very narrow but it's still a call. Did I get it right JW? Is my figure the same thing with your 16% JWK24? I don't think pokerstove factored in the prize pool in its computation.

During the decision making, I did not factor in the fact that opponent maybe shoving wider than what the hud is saying as what Spand42 mentioned. We are both in critical level, and I may not get any cards better than that before the blinds eat us.
 
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Mon Dec 09, 2013, 10:36 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,787
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Hi ggervacio!

You're on the right track. Pokerstove does not take the prize pool into consideration, where an ICM calc does (I specifically picked one that has 50/50 as an option). Also, the 7% number is low. Being short-stacked, the opp should be shoving wider than this and they do so. 77 is not within a 7% range.
Honestly, if the opp wants to be playing optimally, they should be shoving about a 32% range here.

You are absolutely correct that if pokerstove has a higher equity than the pot equity, that it's a +EV call.... but in a case like this, we not only have to look at chip EV, but tourney EV.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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6 Time Bracelet Winner


 

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