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JTs CO play against one villain

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JTs CO play against one villain - Tue Dec 10, 2013, 01:46 PM
(#1)
Max_Kane's Avatar
Since: Nov 2013
Posts: 48
Hello, everyone!

Here I am again, trying to get some insight on a cash hand I played in microstakes.

No reads on the villain, I had just started playing and lost a hand when trying to defend my blind with an average hand from a BTN raise folding to a c-bet. Then I folded the SB and BTN, when I was in CO, I got JTs and decided to raise when the action folded around to me. Villain 3-bets me for 20 cents (I raised 6), so I'm getting 2 / 1 odds to call, but his stack size is deep enough to grant me implied odds (right?) if I hit something big. Before the flop, I was certain I was behind. I could safely put him on TT+, AJ+, and maybe KQ. Plan was to call and try to hit a monster, maybe even folding top pair to multiple barrels as I could be dominated. Here's the hand and I'll continue below:



I flopped THE JOINT, so I c-bet for a standard 1/2 pot and then he raises me with what I figured would be top pair, maybe even top 2-pair or trips.

This is where it gets tricky. In the hand I re-raised him all in, because there was a flush draw for diamonds and I wanted to take away his odds to draw to it, but now I'm wondering if there's another way to play this hand to maximize value from other hands that he could have. With the ranging I had put him on, the flop connected extremely well, and with his raise, we can cross out the TT and JJ pairs from his range. I thought he had a big set, top 2-pair or bottom 2-pair, Top Pair with a gutshot or combo draw (AJo or Ad Jd) at the very worst and I knew I was getting called by pretty much all those hands after he raised my c-bet.

My thought was to put all my money in while I still had the best hand and he was more likely to call, whereas if I had just flatted and then gone all in on the turn, he might fold some of the hands that didn't hit a draw. This means that I will lose more when he outdraws me but also probably win less all the times my hand holds up (I think any trips or 2 pair hand still calls my all in). Now I'm not sure which is the best alternative, so can anyone help me calculate the EV of each play to figure out what the best course of action would be? I'm too new to the game to do it myself, though it's definitely one of the things I plan on learning how to do.

The guy kind of surprised me a bit when he showed his hand, as he had a worse hand than what I'd put him on. He had top pair and a nut flush draw. It was a tense Turn and River for me, but it all worked out pretty well in the end. Nonetheless, we shouldn't be results-oriented, this much I know, so although I am very glad I won, I want to know what the EV of each of my plays is (including, if possible, the pre-flop call) and also of the alternative course of action that I didn't take (calling the flop, shoving the turn unless a diamond came).

Thanks a lot guys. I'm a fast learner, and I promise you that any bit of knowledge you share with me will be put to good use.

Take it EZ!
 
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Tue Dec 10, 2013, 02:55 PM
(#2)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
Pre-flop, I'd fold to the 3-bet. Your implied odds are not that great, and villain is likely to hold cards you might need to make a monster, so there's less chance of hitting a miracle flop. With suited connectors, I prefer to have implied odds of 20:1, which you'll seldom have in a 3-bet pot. The maximum you can win here is the 28c in the pot, plus your remaining stack. 28c + $1.91 = $2.19. You have to call 14c to see a flop. 219:14 is less than 16:1, so the odds are not good enough in my opinion. Generally speaking, I wouldn't play heads up 3-bet pots with suited connectors, unless stacks are much deeper and you feel you can outplay your opponent (and can range him accurately) using the benefit of position. With a pocket pair, you could just about make this call, as 15:1 implied is usually good enough, and you'll know exactly where you are on the flop. (You'll spike a set, or completely whiff). With JTs, you'll usually need to see all 5 cards to make a straight/flush, and it will be spewy to chase a draw for multiple big bets.

As played, you hit a miracle flop. You didn't c-bet, btw, since you weren't the last aggressor. Villain neglected to c-bet, so you can seize the initiative with a bet in position. His check-raise doesn't really surprise me, although I don't particular like that play, given that his range smashes this flop. He'd be missing value when you check behind with hands like JJ/TT. Most of the time he has a set or top two. I'm absolutely shoving over his check-raise, fully expecting him to snap-call with sets and AK, and be losing. Villain is pot-committed after putting so much of his stack in the middle, so there's no fold equity. i.e. he's always calling a shove (unless he has a nonsensical bluff), so you're shoving for pure value. With the bulk of his range, he'll always have outs to a boat, but you got your money in good. You have the nuts, after all.

To work out your EV, you need to input the flop and villain's likely range into Pokerstove/Equilab or the PSO odds calculator to find out how often your hand is likely to hold till the showdown. If you include nut flush draws in villain's range, then the result will be something like this:


Board:
Equity Win Tie
Hero --- 73.07% 72.53% 0.53% { }
Vill --- 26.93% 26.40% 0.53% { AdAh, AdAc, AhAc, KhKs, KhKc, KsKc, QhQs, QhQc, QsQc, AhKh, AcKc, AhQh, AcQc, KhQh, KsQs, KcQc, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, AdKh, AdKs, AdKc, AhKs, AhKc, AcKh, AcKs, AdQh, AdQs, AdQc, AhQs, AhQc, AcQh, AcQs, KhQs, KhQc, KsQh, KsQc, KcQh, KcQs }

The short answer is you'll be doubling up about 73% of the time, and going busto about 27% of the time. That is a huge edge, and a very profitable stack-off to go for. If villain also raises offsuit hands like AJ, AT, then your equity is even higher.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Tue Dec 10, 2013, 03:46 PM
(#3)
Max_Kane's Avatar
Since: Nov 2013
Posts: 48
Why did you include the Ax of diamonds in his range? Obviously, he had one, but I'd think he'd be very unlikely to 3-bet pre-flop with A7s or lower. I think we can safely remove those hands from his range due to his actions, no? I was pretty surprised he showed what he did, I myself wouldn't have 3-bet that hand pre-flop in a million years! I would've called to see a flop and probably check-raised with my top-pair flush draw as well.

Anyway, that was quite clarifying, thank you very much!
 
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Tue Dec 10, 2013, 04:32 PM
(#4)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
Although it doesn't happen in fullring 2NL games very often (it's much more prevalent in 6-max), many players at microstakes are starting to 3-bet light as a blind defence against late position opens. Suited aces are good hands to 3-bet light with, since they have a blocker to AA/AK etc, and can flop a draw even when called. It's hard to make money calling pre-flop with a weak ace when you'll be out of position post-flop, so the 3-bet is an attempt to take the pot down uncontested. It's a (semi-)bluff with a hand that isn't really strong enough to call with. Since the original raiser will usually be folding to the 3-bet over half the time, it's a profitable play.
If you watch this Poker Bites clip, you'll soon be 3-betting light like a boss.


Bracelet Winner

Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Tue Dec 10, 2013 at 04:34 PM..
 
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Tue Dec 10, 2013, 04:58 PM
(#5)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
I think you and Arty have covered this pretty thoroughly.

I don't really like the Preflop call - against an unknown villain and a large 3Bet size, I just prefer to fold. If you were deeper stacked and against an opponent who's tendencies you knew better, then a call might be profitable.

As played I think you played the flop perfectly. I was putting villain on either a set or AK/AQ - you did exactly the right thing in getting all the money in while your and was good and villain was rarely going to be folding with any of his check-raising range.
 
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Tue Dec 10, 2013, 10:45 PM
(#6)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
If we were much deeper we could consider flatting pre to be profitable.
 
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Wed Dec 11, 2013, 06:54 AM
(#7)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Whatever the guys said

Arty's response is spot on Only thing I can add is that we don't necessarily have to shove after they x/r as we can expect them to fire again OTT and we can easily call off when there are not too many cards that can scare us. Obviously getting it in is absolutely fine given their range of hands and flop line. Also against very aggressive 3bettors, I think JTs is a decent hand to call IP if we think villain can 3bet hands like T9, T8, Jxs, etc.
 

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