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2NL Zoom, overpair facing a flop raise on a very wet board

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2NL Zoom, overpair facing a flop raise on a very wet board - Tue Dec 10, 2013, 04:43 PM
(#1)
simonrdr's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 437


Villain playing 24/20 in 48 hands.

What got me tanking the most was the fact that villain insta-called my 3 bet and insta-clicked to raise my CBet. I was really afraid I was up against KK, then again given his stats he probably would have 4bet me pre-flop. I ended up thinking villain had some kind of top pair/flush draw combo.

2 questions :
1. In the tank I narrowed down the options to folding or shoving, calling wasn't an option. Was that right?
2. Was shoving here a good play?
 
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Tue Dec 10, 2013, 10:51 PM
(#2)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Gross spot.

I doubt we'll be ahead if villain calls a shove for a ~150bb.

It's possible he does he have a pair+fd combo, but that's an optimistic part of his range. He could also have sets, flopped flushes and 2 pair combos which we are drawing nearly dead to.

I'd personally call his raise OTF and reevaluate on the turn.
 
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Wed Dec 11, 2013, 06:17 AM
(#3)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
Quote:
Originally Posted by birdayy View Post
Gross spot.

I doubt we'll be ahead if villain calls a shove for a ~150bb.

It's possible he does he have a pair+fd combo, but that's an optimistic part of his range. He could also have sets, flopped flushes and 2 pair combos which we are drawing nearly dead to.

I'd personally call his raise OTF and reevaluate on the turn.
Yeah this spot is horrible - I agree with birdayy and would probably call the flop, although I feel like I am probably just burning money as I am like going to fold to more aggression OTT.

I just feel at microstakes there are much better spots to get involved in where we have a clear edge - this is not one of those spots.
 
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Wed Dec 11, 2013, 07:32 AM
(#4)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
This is indeed a gross spot!

Because we don't have the Ace of spades it makes it more possible that villain will have more *****d flushed and draws.
24/20 looks LAGish for full ring, but since you don't provide stats on their fold to 3bet I'm going with some assumptions here. I think AA/KK would 4bet preflop and give stack sizes, I think AK might be more inclined to call IP than to 4bet. I don't think QQ/JJ with a spade would raise the flop. Also his min-raise makes me think that he does not have a small made flush so its either a nut-ed flush or a TP+ / TP w FD. So against hands like AK, KxQs, AsQs, AsJs, 55 (I'm only including one set in their range because not all small pairs will call a 3bet) we have 45% equity. The problem with calling is that the pot already includes 1.94$ and by calling the additional 0.44$, villain will have less than a PSB OTT and against a flop x/r line in a 3bet pot on this board I can expect them to put the rest of the money OTT. So our decision I think has to be made OTF. If we shove and they call, the pot will be 5.86 so we risk 2.18 to win 3.68 or we need 37% equity so shoving flop isn't very pretty but it looks like a +EV spot but we obviously have to accept the fact that we will lose more often than win here.

Last edited by geoVARTA; Thu Dec 12, 2013 at 03:24 AM..
 
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Wed Dec 11, 2013, 10:24 AM
(#5)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
100bb i'd lean towards shoving but I just think we are a little too deep geo.
 
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Wed Dec 11, 2013, 05:04 PM
(#6)
simonrdr's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 437
Thank you GeoVARTA! It's true I should have mentionned his fold to 3bet since it was relevant to that hand. It was at 0% but only 3 hands of data.
For the record after tanking for while I ended up jamming and villain, after tanking for a long time, called and showed AK with the Ace of diamonds. My aces did hold up!
 
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Wed Dec 11, 2013, 05:15 PM
(#7)
simonrdr's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 437
Make that the ace of spades!
 

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