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5nl zoom bluffcatching

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5nl zoom bluffcatching - Thu Dec 12, 2013, 02:48 AM
(#1)
Praydk's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 504
So I'm taking a shot at 5nl, Is it just me or do people call cbets more often then at 2nl? A lot of times I feel that I'm getting floated, like I did in this hand.

15/12
AF 0/2/2
fold to 3b 67
61 hands

I didn't see what made hand can he call-check-bet here, well now I see I made a completely wrong read but at the time it made a lot of sense. It looked a whole lot like a draw.

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Last edited by Praydk; Thu Dec 12, 2013 at 02:57 AM..
 
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Thu Dec 12, 2013, 03:58 AM
(#2)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi Praydk,

We need to have some serious history I think before we can take a bluff catching line with Ace high in 3bet pots.
Looking at villains stats, they seem to be TAG with 15/12, maybe even on the nitty side so them defending 3bets 33% of the time from the CO, say they open like 25% from the CO, means they would be defending with 8-9% of their range. Also because they are OOP they might be more inclined to 4bet with the weaker part of their 3bet defend range. So say they defend with: AA-99, AK-AJ, ATs, KQ, KJs, QJs - that's 8.4% And hands that would 4bet for value are: AA, KK, AK - hands that could 4bet as a bluff are: KQo, QJs, maybe AJo/ATs? (if they're bad they might even call with these) ; the rest of the hands would call - so what we end up looking at is: QQ-99, AQ, AJs, KQs, KJs - adding 30% of AJo, ATs
If they are playing KQ passively on this flop, I won't be surprised to see AQ in their range too which we are losing against anyways, but then again AQ might check down with SD value. Given that, I think there will be more TP+ hands in their range than bluffs since we only have 4 combos of KQs from the range we started with. To make the call we need to be good 27% of the time so we need them to have atleast 4 more combos of KQo in their range. I think the river call might be a bit too ambitious for me to make if I haven't seen them call a 3bet OOP with a hand like KQo before. Good that this worked though
 
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Thu Dec 12, 2013, 06:43 AM
(#3)
Praydk's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 504
great analysis, thx George
 

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