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25NL 6Max Zoom - TPTK in 3way pot

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25NL 6Max Zoom - TPTK in 3way pot - Thu Dec 12, 2013, 07:57 AM
(#1)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496


Villain 22/11 (10 hands)

I decided to donk into the preflop aggressor as I thought there was a good chance that he missed this flop and would not Cbet.

I wasn't sure what to do once he called and the other villain folded. Should I have continued to lead into him or should I have slowed down and see what he does?
 
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Thu Dec 12, 2013, 05:12 PM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,499
(Head Trainer)
Hi Spand,

Ah, the perils of being out of position. His call on the dry flop in a 3 handed pot shows a lot of strength imo. He may choose this line with AQ+ or he may just not yet believe and be calling us with a few worse hands like KQ, JJ, TT. Obviously on the turn TT gets there, but ultimately I think his range doesn't change too much. Which means he is getting to the river with a range of hands that doesn't contain too many worse combos than AQ. It would be pretty stationy to call us down for stacks with JJ, so I think our shove is too thin here. In fact, I think as odd as it might sound on the surface, this is a perfect spot to check/fold. Consider that:

-Our hand is likely only good for 2 streets of value from worse
-Villains range getting to the river contains almost as many better hands (TT,QQ,KK,AA 13) combos than worse ones (KQ, JJ 14 combos).
-Villain is likely folding to our river bet with JJ
-If we check, villain is likely checking down with JJ and KQ, and is only shoving for value with AQ or better. Villain may even check down AQ.

This last point is a key one imo... if we are ahead I would expect the river to go check/check quite often. If we are behind, I would expect it to go check/shove quite often. So the way this hand has played, on this board run out, if we check and he shoves for 3/4 pot, I think we have a fold.

Even if we add QJ into the mix, making more worse holding combos in his range getting to the river, I think the bullet points still apply in full and it doesn't change our decision.


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Fri Dec 13, 2013, 08:27 AM
(#3)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
Great analysis as always.

I think I just got it into my head that villain would always shove the river so I felt like I had to get in there first. Very much zero level thinking on my part!

Like you say if villain has a marginal hand, he's probably just happy to take it to showdown.

Villain had AA.
 

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