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10Nl 6-max Zoom AKo River decision

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10Nl 6-max Zoom AKo River decision - Sat Dec 14, 2013, 11:07 AM
(#1)
fp_boss77's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 490
Hi, villain is polaying 31/18/5 AF=0.4 over just 41 hands.

Missed value on the river ?



Cheers!
 
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Sat Dec 14, 2013, 11:23 AM
(#2)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
I would bet the river cant see him having a heart draw especially with the way the hand played, the trouble is what do you do if he moves all in once you bet.

There is value to be had from a weaker K and maybe even 8x but he might move all in with trip K without be worried about the straight or back door flush you might of raised and barreled, so a bet fold might be bad.

I would probably bet fold unless i knew he would move all in with trip kings regardless of what better hands are on the board.
 
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Sat Dec 14, 2013, 01:05 PM
(#3)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
I think you definitely missed value here wit a $3.50 or $4.00 bet. This is a situation where villain has indicated to you that they have a hand they would like to showdown or get to showdown and are a passive opponent. Many of their two pairs got counterfeighted on this river, but that doesn't mean they are going to fold them. Hands that have a long king in them are going to call but not raise. I think sometimes you will be called by a flush or a straight and lose, but that's okay. As long as we have an edge on the river money that goes into the pot we should make a value bet and there is a good reason to think villain has a large calling range that includes mostly worse hands.

This is a spot where fearing the river check-raise can lose you money over the long haul. Make a plan. Remind yourself a passive villain won't be check-raise bluffing this river or check-raising the river without a better value hand. So it should make for a straightforward fold on the river if you get shoved on -- so long as you prepare yourself for the possibility before it happens.
 

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