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2NL ATs line of play

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2NL ATs line of play - Sun Dec 15, 2013, 06:30 AM
(#1)
IBNash's Avatar
Since: Oct 2013
Posts: 177
Could I be value owning myself or should I be getting my chips in good?

 
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Sun Dec 15, 2013, 07:38 AM
(#2)
MrFlopes's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 152
You want to get it in in the flop, before the board gets more scary to the villain. The probability that villain has flopped a flush is something like 1%. You basically have the nuts in that spot. Chip it!
 
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Sun Dec 15, 2013, 08:42 AM
(#3)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Raising flop isn't good imo.

But when he bets so small OTT he almost never has a flush so i'd would raise the turn bet with the intention of shoving any non spade river.
 
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Sun Dec 15, 2013, 10:33 AM
(#4)
MrFlopes's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 152
But he almost never has a flush since the math dictates the he is only 1% to have it. Why wait the turn?
 
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Sun Dec 15, 2013, 06:29 PM
(#5)
IBNash's Avatar
Since: Oct 2013
Posts: 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by birdayy View Post
Raising flop isn't good imo.

But when he bets so small OTT he almost never has a flush so i'd would raise the turn bet with the intention of shoving any non spade river.
Why don't you like raising the flop?
 
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Mon Dec 16, 2013, 01:44 AM
(#6)
DemzMahChipz's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrFlopes View Post
But he almost never has a flush since the math dictates the he is only 1% to have it. Why wait the turn?
The chance that any random hand is going to have the flush here is something like 4%, but this isn't just a random hand since the guy check-raised in a 3-way pot. I think on average that's going to be a flush a lot more often than 4%, and it will be villain-dependent. For some that check-raise would mean a flush 100% of the time, for others it will either be a flush or a bluff usually. IMO the worst thing about re-raising the flop is that you're only going to get called by a flush (or draws, but the guy already priced out his own draw). On the turn it looks a lot more like a draw, and I think a raise there is right. IDK about shoving the river either, again that's going to look a lot like a flush, and usually only get called by flushes I think. I can't remember the villains stack size, if he would be pretty short OTR then shove maybe, but otherwise I think a smallish value bet would be right.

This one would be very villain-dependant for me though, against a more passive villain I'm folding OTF I think.
 
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Mon Dec 16, 2013, 10:22 AM
(#7)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,487
(Head Trainer)
Hi all,

I remember a hand once quite a few years back that a student of mine played at fixed limit holdem... On the river to board had run out KhQhJhThX. He had the 9h for a straight flush. They were heads up so there was no cap on betting, and the action went raise/raise/raise/raise back and forth for 9 bets. I asked my student why he chose to go 9 bets on the river here, and he replied (he was a very math oriented guy) that it was so improbable he was beat that he just kept raising. I asked him to explain how he came to that conclusion, and his answer was that there was only a 1.9% he could be beat since there was only 1 specific card in the deck that beat him! Okay, I said, while that's true that only the ace of hearts beats you, the board is KQJT, and you have the 9... he's looking at the same board you are and is still happily raising away... what else can he possibly have?

The whole point of this side bar story from my past is that Demz is right on... we can look at the raw % chance a player flops a flush at the point the flop comes out to say "how often will someone have a flush on me here?". Once a player takes a strong action however (check-raising 2 players in a multi-way pot), the chance they actually have one goes up, and we should adjust accordingly. The c/r doesn't mean he must have a flush, but his hand strength in general becomes a lot stronger. Strong draws (probably the ace) and 2 pair + seem likely here. And hands like 2 pair might not like risking a free card and checking initially either.

Plus there's the problem of the caller behind us... so often weaker players instantly go into slow play mode when they flop a flush, regardless of the situation (sometimes slow playing is optimal, but often playing strong hands fast is better).

I think that flatting the c/r and proceeding to make decisions for how big a pot we should play with more information later in the hand is fine here. If we flat, and the button 3-bets, and the other guy 4-bet jams, we'll be pretty glad we didn't raise the flop and put our stack in drawing dead.

I also agree with raising the turn. I think the new information is good... the button didn't take the gloves off and reraise the flop, the turn put a 4 liner to a straight on the board, and the check/raiser makes a bet that indicates he's not happy about that. But a flush has no fear from a straight. So it seems a lot like the nut flush draw or some made hand that's not a flush, trying to get to the river cheaply. I like disappointing him and raising now. Given that there's already over $1 in the pot and these guys have only have 1.46 and 1.63 respectively, I'm not opposed to simply jamming. A normal raise relative to the pot size will be the majority of their remaining stacks anyway.


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