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16nl - Ax range percentage?

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16nl - Reg Ax range OTR? - Tue Dec 17, 2013, 05:58 AM
(#1)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Stats: VPIP: 29, PFR: 18, 3B: 8, AF: 3.3, Hands: 353

Additional Stats: F3B: 62%, FCbet Flop: 50%



Villain is an aggressive regular who I have quite a bit of history with. We'd been going at it 3betting, 4betting etc for a fair bit of this session on multiple tables.

I believe he's on the level that I would barrel this river with a large % of bluffs, and check hands like QQ or KK. Since i'm pretty polarized I believe he could level himself into calling with a mid PP or any Jx.

However, he may have some Ax range, such as Ax, am ambitious A9 or AJ.

I think it's rare that he'll have a complete float like AK (which would 4b GII BvB given our dynamic) or AQ once he calls two streets unless he has the nut flush draw.

A friend actually said that he preferred jamming to look completely polarized. Would this be better?

Last edited by birdayy; Tue Dec 17, 2013 at 06:29 AM..
 
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Tue Dec 17, 2013, 07:38 AM
(#2)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
Interesting hand.

This villain seems to know where the fold button is so he's clearly very interested in the hand when he calls a 3Bet and calls two big barrels OOP.

I'm struggling to find a hand where you're going to get called with this thin value bet. KJ or TT seem to be the only two possibilities and even these are quite optimistic. I think he folds other Jx and PPs less than 88. You're now losing to AKss, AQss, AJ, A9.

I think AA, KK, sets and J9 would have x/r the turn because of the fairly wet board and maybe your history but I guess he could've slowplayed all three streets if he felt you were likely to bet out all three streets.

Therefore I think a value bet here is too thin and I'd just check it to showdown.
 
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Tue Dec 17, 2013, 11:51 AM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi birdayy,


Nice spot. I think there's merit to 3 different options:

-Jamming to completely polarize ourselves.
-Betting small (like 5.50) to induce action from Jx/9x hands, both increasing their calling frequency, and sometimes inducing hands the weaker hands like 9x to turn themselves in to a bluff and check/jam (opponent specific... this guy as described seems like a good candidate).
-Checking back.

While they all have their merits, my personal preference here is option 2. I think it creates the most doubt about our holding. While it's true that villain might expect us to bluff this card, it's also true that villain should expect a fair portion of our light 3b range preflop includes Ax. So jamming might look a bit like a range merge going for value from Jx (exactly what we're proposing trying to do). I think a K river works better for what you're hoping to accomplish with a jam, since it's also a card you might bluff, while missing Ax at the same time. Checking back is the safe route of course, but as described probably misses too much value from Jx/9x hands in this dynamic.


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Tue Dec 17, 2013, 07:54 PM
(#4)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Cheers Dave.

I talked a bit more about this hand with skype buddies.

I think it basically comes down to what level the villain is on.

If he's a smart player then he should know that he needs to be calling more often vs a jam with 9x or Jx because we are completely polarised.

If he is an average player then we won't recognise this, and will call a small bet simply due to 'pot odds', and not the fact that our bet looks like thin value.

Personally vs Dave I think i'd be jamming for example.
 
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Wed Dec 18, 2013, 10:21 AM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by birdayy View Post
Personally vs Dave I think i'd be jamming for example.
I'm not sure how you could jam the river when you're all in on the turn.


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