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5NL 6max. Huge raise on turn. What to do

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5NL 6max. Huge raise on turn. What to do - Tue Dec 17, 2013, 06:41 AM
(#1)
rkleefstra's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 2,328


Villain unknown

pre: Hero has 10hJh
SB bets 3BB
BB (Hero) flats

flop:
9cJs5s
villian checks
Hero bets 67%pot
villian calls

turn:
8d
villain checks
Hero bets 85% pot
Villian raises 4x my bet, almost 2 x pot.

What to do? Fold, call, shove?

In my mind it was an idiot bet that smelled really bluffy so maybe a shove would be the best way here.

On the other hand, c/c flop and c/r turn looked strong.
I don't think my toppair, bad kicker was good here and the price wasnt right for gambling for a str8 so I folded.

Last edited by rkleefstra; Tue Dec 17, 2013 at 07:22 AM..
 
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Tue Dec 17, 2013, 11:11 AM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,487
(Head Trainer)
Hi rk,

You've shown more strength than your hand is actually worth with 2 large sized bets post flop, and he's making a very strong turn action in the face of it. I think you sort of answer your own question... first calling it an "idiot bet" that smells bluffy (I think meaning it would be a bad spot to bluff, which is true given your sizings) and then acknowledging the c/c, c/r line looks strong. Another way to evaluate it is to consider what hands make sense for the villain to be bluffing with that would check/call the flop? I think air would bluff the flop with a c-bet. We can come up with a few medium strength flop hands that turned a straight draw and are semi-bluffing, but again as you note, it's a pretty silly spot for that in the face of the strong bet sizings you've made... he can't expect you to be folding. That doesn't mean he's not making a mistake, bad players make them all the time, but in the absence of reads I would go with the assumption that this is the genuine strength the line represents. We don't have correct odds to draw to our straight (not even enough implied odds, plus no guarantee to get paid off if we make our hand since it puts 4 ot a straight on board), so I agree with the fold.

Which should lead us to questioning our turn bet. It's important to have a plan for our hand, so we know how we are going to respond to a check raise. Some questions to ask in formulating our plan:

-How many streets of value is our hand worth? (How many will worse hands call)
-How valuable is it to us to see the river card?
-If we bet and get raised, how will we have to respond?

In this case, our hand is worth a max of 2 streets imo, and maybe we are only getting 1 quite often from his entire showdown value holdings that check/call the flop and don't improve on the turn, by firing a 2nd huge barrel. The river is fairly valuable to us given our turned straight draw, and we will probably have to fold to a check/raise of all but the smallest sizings.

People get caught up in spots like this thinking "oh I have to protect against/get value from spades". No you don't. It's an odd line with a flush draw, most players who raise pre and flop a flush draw, bet the flop. So his flop check/calling range is largely going to be medium strength hands with some showdown value, and a few monsters that fancy slow playing. On the turn, many of the hands in that flop check/call range we're beating will simply fold to this bet, while the monsters (or med strength hands that improved on the turn) will raise us. So I prefer to check back on the turn. We realize the full equity of our hand, can call a bet if he fires river, and can value bet ourselves if he checks again, and expect to get paid off now by worse medium strength hands like A9 that bluff catch us.


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Tue Dec 17, 2013, 11:24 AM
(#3)
rkleefstra's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 2,328
Good stuff langolier. Have to read that a few more times to really get everything you are saying.


Some questions popped right into my head, but I will keep them for myself for now.
First let this piece of info sink in.
 
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Tue Dec 17, 2013, 05:11 PM
(#4)
rkleefstra's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 2,328
Hi theLangolier,

Really value your answer on this hand (in any hand ofc, but you sure did an extra effort here )
Good intel and things to think about.

I was puzzled first why I shouldnt bet the turn. I still had top pair with a decent kicker and my hand had just improved a bit so a 2nd bet looked like the obvious thing to do. Seeing your explaination, I should have see the free rivercard and be happy if my str8 hits or get out cheap.
 

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